Small Craft Advisory 59, NWS Fairbanks, AK

349 
FZAK52 PAFG 262308
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-271445-
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A broad area of low pressure near the Gulf of Anadyr will 
strengthen to 989 mb by Tuesday morning will lead to increased 
southwest flow in the Bering Sea and along the West Coast through 
Wednesday.

$$

PKZ200-271445-
Norton Sound-
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-271445-
Dall Point to Wales-
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-271445-
Kotzebue Sound-
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-271445-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
308 PM AKDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

959 
FZAK52 PAFG 271152
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
352 AM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-280230-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A broad area of low pressure near the Gulf of Anadyr will 
strengthen to 983 mb by Tuesday night and result in increased 
southwest flow in the Bering Sea and along the West Coast through 
Wednesday.

$$

PKZ200-280230-
Norton Sound-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-280230-
Dall Point to Wales-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-280230-
Kotzebue Sound-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-280230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
352 AM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

437 
FZAK52 PAFG 272246
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
246 PM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-281815-
246 PM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 983 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr will swing into the Chukchi Sea
Wednesday and remain there through Friday. A weather front along
the West Coast will move slowly inland through Thursday.

$$

PKZ200-281815-
Norton Sound-
246 PM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 12 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-281815-
Dall Point to Wales-
246 PM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-281815-
Kotzebue Sound-
246 PM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-281815-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
246 PM AKDT Tue Jul 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
243 AM AKDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Showers continue on the West Coast and in the Arctic
and will spread to most of the Interior by late this evening.
Heaviest rainfall on the West Coast, see the hydrology section for
more information. Cloudy conditions with showers will continue
through most of the week across the forecast area. Temperatures
cooler with with higher relative humidity for the remainder of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The short term periods in the 26/00Z solutions are in
good agreement, but for the extended periods are once again going
in different directions over the Central and Eastern Interior.
Weill be leaning pretty hard toward the Ensemble means to limit
the noise and maintain some continuity. Convective indicies are
negligible the next few days under the southwest flow aloft.
Going to use a general blend for the short term that will maintain
continuity with the previous forecast and not change the forecast
database significantly.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging extends from a 564 dam high east of
Dawson YT southwest to a 565 dam high over Glennallen to a 566 dam
high over Palmer to a 566 dam high over Augustine Island then
south over Kodiak Island. Ridging also extends north over
Fairbanks to Prudhoe Bay the northwest over 150W. The low in the
Siberian Arctic has moved over Wrangel Island at 542 dam with the
trough extending southeast over the West Coast to a 560 dam low
100 nm south of Cold Bay. Weak ridging is holding on over the
Southern Bering Sea. By this afternoon not much change in the
ridging over the southern mainland, while the ridging extending
north will slide east to the AlCan Border. The low in the Siberian
Arctic will remain over Wrangel Island at 539 dam as the trough
moves east to lie from Point Lay to King Salmon as it starts to
ride over the ridging. Tuesday morning the ridging over the
southern mainland will slide south of the Alaska Range as the
trough works its way into the Western and Central Interior and
lies from Wainwright over Tanana to Western Cook Inlet as it
weakens. Weak ridging will build north over the West Coast behind
the trough. Tuesday afternoon the decaying trough will be over the
Eastern Arctic Coast and Eastern Interior just east of Fairbanks
while the weak ridging will move over the Western Interior. At 850
hpa...Temperatures will range from +2C to +10C through the week.

Surface...A 1004 mb low that was near Point Hope has moved to 200
nm northwest of Point Lay with weak low pressure extending
southeast over the Arctic Plain, Eastern Brooks Range, and the
Upper Yukon Flats. Low pressure also extends south and west from
the low over the Chukotsk Peninsula. Weak high pressure south of
the Yukon River extends south of the Alaska Range to a 1018 mb
high in Upper Cook Inlet. This afternoon not much change over the
state, but to the west a 989 mb low will move to just west of the
Gulf of Anadyr sending a weather front into the Northeast Bering
Sea and St Lawrence Island. Tuesday morning high pressure will
hold over the Southern Interior and Southcentral area, and most of
the Arctic. Weak low pressure north of Fairbanks to the Arctic
Coast and West of Tanana to a 985 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr.
The associated front will move to the Seward Peninsula and Lower
Yukon Delta.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, showers, and areas of fog
prevail today with not much change expected through the week. Highs
in the 40s to lower 50s, with lows in the 40s for most locations
along the coast. Warmer inland with highs in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Winds inland south to southwest 5 to 15 mph, while winds
along the coast will be northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Showers will prevail with
additional rainfall through Wednesday morning of 0.25 to 1.50
inches with the heaviest amounts on the southern Seward Peninsula
and along the south slopes of the Western Brooks Range. Showers
will continue through the remainder of the week with up to an
additional 1.0 inch of rain through Friday morning. High
temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s, Lows will be in the mid 40s
to mid 50s. A low moving the Gulf of Anadyr will bring increasing
winds to the area through Wednesday. Winds will be southwest at 5
to 25 mph with the strongest winds in the Lower Yukon Delta and
on the Norton Sound Coast. Elevated seas and wave action along
the West Coast to the Bering Strait, and in Norton Sound Tuesday
through Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with some breaks during the
day. Then increasing chance of showers from Delta Junction west
tonight. Winds west at 5 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph locally
during the afternoon and evening. High temperatures in the 60s and
lower 70s, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Another day another set of
solutions that cannot seem to come together. The models continue
the struggle and now keep the southwest flow over the area through
Saturday, then rebuild ridging over the Eastern half of the
state. Southwest flow will bring showers across the state until
the ridging builds in, then warmer and drier in the Interior with
isolated thunderstorms and showers, while on the West Coast and in
the Arctic showers and cloudy conditions will prevail.

&&

.Fire Weather...Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail today with
some breaks. Increasing Chance of Wetting Rain in the Western
Interior through the day with increasing chances in the Central
Interior starting late today. Temperatures in the 60s to lower
70s today with lows tonight falling to the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Minimum Relative Humidity will be lowest in the Upper Yukon Flats
as they fall into the upper 30s ranging into the mid 60s in the
Middle Yukon Valley. Winds southwest to west at 5 to 10 mph
gusting around 15 mph for most locations. Relative Humidity
recovery will be very good.

&&

.Hydrology...Water levels in small stream, creeks, and mainstem
rivers in the Interior are returning to the levels they were
running at last week, and they remain well below normal levels. A
front moving to the West Coast will bring up to 1.5 inches of
rainfall to the southern Seward Peninsula and the south slopes of
the Western Brooks Range by Wednesday morning, and another 1.0
inch to the same areas Wednesday through Friday morning. Wulik
and Snake River will see rises but currently no flooding is
anticipated. For the latest river information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

&&

SDB JUL 21