Small Craft Advisory 54, NWS Fairbanks, AK

711 
FZAK52 PAFG 191333
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
533 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-200245-
533 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front in the Eastern Bering Sea will move to Cape 
Lisburne to the Yukon Delta by 4am Tue, and to Utqiagvik south by 
4am Wed. 

$$

PKZ200-200245-
Norton Sound-
533 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-200245-
Dall Point to Wales-
533 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Haze and fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 5 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-200245-
Kotzebue Sound-
533 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Haze and fog. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-200245-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
533 AM AKDT Mon Jul 19 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Haze and fog. Rain. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Haze and fog. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
236 AM AKDT Sun Jul 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler across the Mainland today behind a cool front which will
stall out over the Eastern Alaska Range and Fortymile. This will
be the focus of potential isolated thunderstorms, otherwise, most
other Interior locations will be mostly dry with perhaps an
isolated shower in the afternoon. A low is crossing over the North
Slope bringing rain and low stratus and breezy southwest winds,
which are also continuing along the NW Arctic coast. More warm
temps are in store for the Interior Monday and Tuesday as a ridge
rebuilds. Cooler out west as the Bering trough moves inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 580 dam 500 hpa ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea
nosing into Southwest Alaska. There is a shortwave trough
traversing the North Slope with the center near Prudhoe Bay.
There is a weakening cool front moving east across the Eastern
Interior. Out west there is a large upper level low over the
Western Bering Sea which is pumping up the aforementioned ridge.
Clouds are streaming inland associated with the front so it will
be a bit cloudier to start today. Freezing levels over the
Mainland remain high as the 00z PAFA RAOB had another 10,000+ ft
FZL.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Cooler and cloudier today then clearing more in the afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the far Eastern AK Range
and Fortymile Uplands, otherwise, mostly dry with only a few
isolated showers in the afternoon/evening mainly over the higher
Interior mountains. Monday begins another warmup as 850 hpa temps
shoot up to the 12-15 C range, with highs pushing back into the
80s. Tuesday is possibly warmer with mid to upper 80s on tap for
parts of the Eastern Interior. A chinook south flow will also kick
in with increasing south winds out of the Alaska Range. An
isolated thunderstorm is also possible over the Eastern AK Range
where there will be a pool of 400-700 j/kg of CAPE. Clouds and
showers move into the Central Interior on Tuesday afternoon with
gradual cooling for all areas thereafter as the ridge retreats
into Canada.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Blustery southwest winds will continue today over the Bering
Strait and NW Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range. Rain
associated with another warm front will begin to move in Sunday
night and Monday mainly only impacting the Capes and immediate
Bering/Chukchi coasts. However, the front moves east Monday,
bringing heavier and more widespread rainfall, with thunderstorms
over the Interior and higher terrain near the coast, including the
Nulato Hills and Western Brooks. Tuesday and Wednesday will be
rainy and cooler as the front is reinforced with the parent
Bering Sea low which will move into the Bering Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front is about to clear the far eastern North Slope which will
bring an end to showers. Some stratus is lagging behind this
front, but southwest winds this afternoon should allow for
partial clearing and warming temps, especially over the eastern
half. A front and southerly flow associated with a large Bering
trough will bring in rain to the western Arctic with even more
warming temps to the east Arctic where temps will push into the
70s and possibly low 80s over the Arctic Plains.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period forecast on Wednesday, there will be
a very large trough over the West Coast with south flow aloft over
the Eastern Interior. This pattern will split the state with a
significant thermal gradient across it, with cool out west and
warm toward the ALCAN. In between will be rain and showers with
thunderstorm threats over in the warm sector, aka the Eastern
Interior and eastern AK Range/Brooks Range. The ECMWF and GFS are
now in better agreement showing south flow turning back into
upper level ridging Thursday and beyond, thus there is a chance
for heavier showers and thunderstorms to be possible late week
over the Eastern Interior with temps running slightly above
average.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cooler today with only a limited area of thunderstorms over the
Fortymile and Eastern AK Range. Warming and drying over the
Interior on Monday with more 80s with thunderstorm threats again
over toward the ALCAN and also along the higher terrain of the
West Coast/E Seward Peninsula. Tuesday is looking like the peak of
critical fire weather conditions as temps soar into the mid to
upper 80s over the Eastern Interior with increasing southerly
winds through the AK Range. Expect min RH values to drop into the
low 20s near the AK Range, with upper 20s in warmer Interior
valleys. South winds increase in the afternoon and may flirt with
red flag conditions. Isolated high based thunderstorms will also
be possible over the Eastern AK Range and Fortymile.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate rainfall Monday night through Tuesday night will drop
1-1.5" of rainfall over the Western brooks Range which will
result in some quick rises on smaller streams. However, major
rivers will not see any appreciable rises. Elsewhere, no concerns.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.
&&

AHSENMACHER JUL 21