Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

886 
FZAK52 PAFG 032313
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-041600-
313 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1010 mb low near Unalaska will move quickly into the North 
Pacific. A 1028 mb high over the eastern Chukchi Sea will build
south across the eastern Bering Sea and remain in place through
Wednesday.

$$

PKZ200-041600-
Norton Sound-
313 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-041600-
Dall Point to Wales-
313 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft subsiding.
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-041600-
Kotzebue Sound-
313 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt becoming NE. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-041600-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
313 PM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

May 21

869 
FZAK52 PAFG 041150
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
350 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-050300-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1028 mb high over the eastern Chukchi Sea will build south 
across the eastern Bering Sea and remain in place through 
Wednesday while a series of lows moves across the Aleutian Chain.

$$

PKZ200-050300-
Norton Sound-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-050300-
Dall Point to Wales-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-050300-
Kotzebue Sound-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-050300-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
350 AM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

May 21

945 
FZAK52 PAFG 042250
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
250 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-051430-
250 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1028 mb high over the eastern Chukchi Sea will continue to cause
northerly flow through the Bering Sea into Wednesday. A series of
lows will move across the Aleutian Chain going into Thursday.

$$

PKZ200-051430-
Norton Sound-
250 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-051430-
Dall Point to Wales-
250 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-051430-
Kotzebue Sound-
250 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt becoming NE. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-051430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
250 PM AKDT Tue May 4 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

May 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
158 AM AKDT Mon May 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant spring weather will continue across the forecast area
through in to the middle of the week. Some patchy fog and stratus
near open leads in the sea ice along the coast will continue.
Temperatures will warm across the Interior and will help
accelerate breakup this week as low temperatures from the Yukon
south only cool into the upper 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...03/00Z model solutions initialized well against the 00z
observational data and verified well against the 06z observational
data. The model solutions in the short term retain good continuity
with previous model runs and from model family to model family.
Model spread increases significantly in both the mid range and in
the extended range. We opted to make few changes to the inherited
forecast package preserving forecast continuity into the mid
range. Tuesday will bring the potential for convection in the
southeast Interior with LI's at or just below zero and CAPE values
in the 150 to 250 joules range. These numbers are likely to
produce showers, however terrain enhanced thunderstorms potential
should not be a factor given there is too much snow cover remaining
in our higher terrain which will prevent terrain heating and
subsequent thunderstorm development.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a weak high pressure ridge continues from
Siberia eastward over the Seward Peninsula, the Northern Interior
into a secondary High pressure system over the Yukon. This high
pressure ridge will split on Tuesday with a section of the Ridge
moving west over Eastern Siberia and the portion over the Yukon
remaining in place. In between a sharp shortwave will push
southeast out of the high arctic over the Western North Slope
Tuesday morning and over the Central North Slope and Central
Brooks Range by Tuesday afternoon. The trough will slowly push
east over the Eastern North Slope on Wednesday as the high
pressure system over Siberia builds and merges with a high
pressure ridge pushing north out of the Southern Bering Sea. The
Interior of Alaska remains in a coll with weak flow aloft and
minimal temperature change through the week.

Surface...A 1024 high pressure ridge will persist today north of
the Brooks Range and over the Central Arctic. The high pressure
will strengthen to around 1028 mb Tuesday and remain over Point
Barrow through the middle of the week. Today, a 1011 mb trough
along the Upper Tanana Valley with a 1010 mb low near Tok and a
1011 mb low near Delta Junction will will combine and move over
the southern tip of Kodiak Island at 999 mb. High pressure will
persist in the Arctic and north of the Brooks Range. Little change
is expected through Tuesday as the troughing persists north of
the Alaska Range with a 1009 mb low in the Tanana Flats. As low
moves to the Tanana Flats high pressure will build in the Copper
River Basin and the pressure gradient across the Alaska Range will
tighten with gusty winds developing from Trims Camp to Donnelly
Dome Tuesday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A mix of clouds and clear skies.
Some patchy fog dense in some locations along the coast as leads
start to open up in the ice. Northeast to east winds 5 to 15 mph
through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain cool with highs still in
the teens and 20s, while lows will be in the single digits to
lower teens above.

West Coast and Western Interior...A mix of clouds, but mainly
partly cloudy. Offshore flow will continue, so drier and warmer.
Some patchy fog near the open leads in the ice along the coast.
Temperatures with range from the 50s in the Middle Yukon Valley to
the 20s along the Chukchi Sea Coast. As mentioned offshore flow
will continue, with east winds 5 to 15 mph through at least Tue
along the coast, and light winds inland.

Central and Eastern Interior...Partly cloudy today with some
increased clouds during the afternoon and evening Tuesday and a
slight chance of showers. Winds variable to 10 mph today, then
the exception will be from Trims camp north to Donnelly Dome winds
south winds will be gusting to 25 mph. Temperatures warming with
highs in the 50s to lower 60s through the week. Overnight lows
mainly in the 30s from Fairbanks south, and in the 20s to the
north.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...High pressure will persist
over the Arctic with low pressure in the Northeast Pacific and
over the Aleutians. Easterly flow will continue over the area with
ridging aloft. In the Interior expect some isolated afternoon and
evening showers Thursday, then a better chance of showers Friday
and Saturday as a trough aloft moves north across the area. Cloudy
conditions will prevail in the Arctic and with move leads opening
in the ice patchy fog can be expected. West Coast can expect more
of the same with a mix of clouds, but offshore flow will mean more
sun that clouds. Temperatures will be near or above
climatological normals for early May.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warming temperatures and drier conditions through the week.
Development of thermal trough in the Tanana Valley Tuesday will
bring some chances of afternoon and evening showers south and east
of Tanana for the remainder of the week. Temperatures in the
Western Interior will remain cool with highs in the 40s and 50s.
In the Central and Eastern Interior temperatures will be warming
with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Minimum Relative Humidity
values in the 20s and 30s Monday will rise into the 30s for the
remainder of the week. Some gusty south winds to 25 mph from Trims
Camp north along the Richardson Highway Tuesday, otherwise
variable winds to 10 mph during the day with light drainage winds
to 4 mph overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The ice jam on the Chena River in Fairbanks along the University
Street bridge remains in place, however water levels continue to
drop as water is currently making it through the jam. Minor ice
jams may continue to occur along the Chena as ice from upstream on
the Chena and Little Chena Rivers continues to move down stream
and get caught in construction pilings for both the Wendell
Street and University Street bridges. Do not expect any issues,
but we will be watching it closely. There are currently no
imminent issues with the rivers, streams, and creeks in the
Interior. They continue to run high, but within banks. Warming
temperatures will help accelerate breakup on the rivers that have
not cleared. The Yukon River remains solidly in place in Dawson YT
and Eagle, but starting to see a few more open leads and water on
top of the ice. River Ice will continue to break down faster than
lake ice, but extreme caution should be used around all bodies of
water. As breakup continues things can change rapidly so for the
latest updates go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks,
mobile.weather.gov, or www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest
Warnings, Advisories, and forecasts.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.
&&

CCC MAY 21