Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Fairbanks, AK

241 
FZAK51 PAFG 112208
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
208 PM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-121430-
208 PM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure in the eastern Beaufort Sea will move east into
Canada tonight. A weather front over the high Arctic will move 
southeast and reach Arctic coast Monday evening and move inland
Monday night. Weak low pressure will persist over the northern
Chukchi Sea into Tuesday.

$$

PKZ225-121430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
208 PM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
8 ft.
.MON...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-121430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
208 PM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building
to 6 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-121430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
208 PM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-121430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
208 PM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt becoming S. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-121430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
208 PM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

124 
FZAK51 PAFG 121140
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
340 AM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-130215-
340 AM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure over the McKenzie Delta this morning will continue
to push east today. A weather front over the high Arctic will 
move southeast and reach Arctic coast this evening and move 
inland tonight. Weak low pressure will persist over the northern 
Chukchi Sea into Tuesday.

$$

PKZ225-130215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
340 AM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-130215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
340 AM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-130215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
340 AM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-130215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
340 AM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-130215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
340 AM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

868 
FZAK51 PAFG 122232
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
232 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-131430-
232 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A weather front over the high Arctic will move southeast and 
reach Arctic coast this evening and move inland tonight. Weak low 
pressure will persist over the northern Chukchi Sea into Tuesday.

$$

PKZ225-131430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
232 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding
to 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-131430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
232 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt becoming NE. Seas 8 ft subsiding to
4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-131430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
232 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-131430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
232 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt becoming NW 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-131430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
232 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog.
Freezing spray. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

193 
FZAK51 PAFG 130315 AAA
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast For Arctic Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
715 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

Updates zones 225, 230, 235, 240, and 245


Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ298-131515-
715 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A weather front over the high Arctic will move southeast and 
reach Arctic coast this evening and move inland tonight. Weak low 
pressure will persist over the northern Chukchi Sea into Tuesday.

$$

PKZ225-131515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
715 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding
to 5 ft.  Fog.
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-131515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
715 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt becoming NE. Seas 8 ft subsiding to
4 ft.  Fog. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-131515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
715 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog.  
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog.  
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog.  
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog.  
.THU...SE winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog.  
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt.  
.FRI...W winds 15 kt.  
.SAT...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-131515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
715 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt. Freezing fog.
Thunderstorms. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog and fog.  
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog.  
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog.  
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog.  
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt.  
.FRI...W winds 10 kt.  
.SAT...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-131515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
715 PM AKDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
Thunderstorms. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog.  
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog.
Freezing spray.  
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog.  
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog.  
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
126 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions will continue over the Central and
Eastern Interior today with limited thunderstorm activity over
most of Northern Alaksa with the exception of the northeastern
Interior and the Eastern Brooks Range. Temperatures will rise into
the upper 60s to lower 70s today over the Central and Eastern
Interior and will continue to warm into the lower to mid 70s on
Monday and the upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. Rain and wind on
the North Slope will diminish today with mix of clouds and sun
expected. Mostly cloudy skies in the Western Interior and West
Coast will diminish becoming partly cloudy for the beginning of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models, the 11th/00z models suite initialized well against the
11th/00z surface analysis and verified well against the 11/06z
surface analysis. Model spread is reasonable in the short range
and has improved with model spread on both the position and
strength of synoptic scale features in the mid range and into the
extended range. Leaned heavily on continuity with previous
forecast package adding only minor tweaks to this forecast
package. We opted to add a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
Northeastern Interior and Eastern Brooks Range for this afternoon
and evening given the strength of approaching front from the
north and stronger upper level dynamics associated with the front.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a longwave trough remains parked over Central
and Eastern Alaska with an 548 dam low located near the Kodiak
Island and an 518 dam low upper level low located near 76N and
146W. A 577 dam high pressure ride over he Eastern Bering Sea will
continue to slowly push to the east arriving over the Seward
Peninsula by Monday. A strong shortwave rotating around the low
near 76N will push south and east onto the North Slope on Tuesday
and into the Northern Interior on Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures
over Fairbanks will warm from around 6 above Celsius this morning
to around 12 above Celsius on Monday and Tuesday afternoons and
will push surface temperatures into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

On the surface, front rotating around a 982 mb low located near
80N and 145W will continue to push south and east over the North
Slope today and into the Northern Interior tonight as a 1013 mb
high pressure ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea continues to build
east over Western Alaska. A second stronger front rotating around
the low near 80N will push over the North Slope on Tuesday and
into the Northern Interior on Wednesday. Temperatures will likely
cool out of the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday into the 70s on
Wednesday as the front brings clouds and a chance of Thunderstorms
over the Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Clouds, wind and rain will
diminish today with mostly cloudy skies expected to receive a few
breaks over the next couple days. The strong winds associated with
a front that is pushing south and east into the Interior will
also diminish today. Skies will continue to clear today and
tonight and into Sunday behind the front. Expect high temperatures
along the coast in the 40s to around 50, and lows in the 30s.
Inland temperatures will be in the 50s to around 60, and lows will
be in the 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...A strong front pushing south and
east along the West Coast this morning will continue to push
inland and will bring clouds, winds, fog and rain to the coastal
areas this morning. Conditions will improve this afternoon with a
few peaks of the sun by this afternoon. The front will weaken as
it pushes into the Western Interior and will bring scattered rain
showers and mostly cloudy skies to the area. The showers will
diminish tonight and expect mostly cloudy skies to become partly
cloudy tonight. No thunderstorm activity is expected in the
Western Interior today. Expect winds from the southwest today for
most locations as the front approaches from the northwest. High
temperatures warming into the 50s and 60s today and Monday along
the coast and into the upper 60s inland. Expect lows in the 40s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening will be limited to the northeastern Interior
north and east of Forty Yukon and in the Eastern Brooks Range.
Limited thunderstorm activity is expected elsehwere in the
Central and Eastern Interior. Warmer and drier conditions are
expect today and into early next week with decreased chance of
thunderstorms and showers. Winds mostly from the southwest in the
5 to 15 mph range are expected for most areas during the day and
light drainage winds are expected at night. Stronger winds will
again be expected along and near the Alsaka Range where wind in
the 15 to 25 mph range are expected in the afternoons and
evenings. Temperatures will be on the increase with high
temperatures pushing into the low to mid 70s today and into the
middle to upper 70s Monday and upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday.
A front moving south over the Central and Eastern Interior on
Wednesday will cool the area a few degrees but will increase the
chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be very isolated and
limited to the Northeastern Interior and the Eastern Brooks Range
with limited thunderstorm activity expected elsewhere in Northern
Alaska. Warmer and drier through Tuesday with no thunderstorm
activity expected. Winds variable to 10 mph during the day, then
light drainage winds to 5 mph at night. The exception will
continue to be along and near the Alaska Range where south winds
in the 15 to 25 mph range are expected in the afternoons and
evenings. Temperatures will continue to increase over the Interior
with high temperatures pushing into the lower to mid 70s today
and into the middle to upper 70s Monday and upper 70s to lower 80s
by Tuesday. Min RH values around 30 percent for today through
Tuesday afternoon and early evening. A front moving south over the
Central and Eastern Interior on Wednesday will cool the area a
few degrees and will increase the chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrology issues expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.
&&

CCC JUL 21