Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Fairbanks, AK

307 
FZAK52 PAFG 101226
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
426 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-110215-
426 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1000 mb low pressure system currently located over Bristol Bay 
will continue to push south and east into the Northern Gulf of 
Alaska as a 1012 mb high pressure system pushes into the eastern 
Bering Sea through Monday.

$$

PKZ200-110215-
Norton Sound-
426 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 2 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-110215-
Dall Point to Wales-
426 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft.
Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-110215-
Kotzebue Sound-
426 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-110215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
426 AM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

469 
FZAK52 PAFG 102155
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
155 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-111415-
155 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1000 mb low pressure system currently located over Bristol Bay 
will continue to push south and east into the Northern Gulf of 
Alaska as a 1012 mb high pressure system pushes into the eastern 
Bering Sea through Monday.

$$

PKZ200-111415-
Norton Sound-
155 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-111415-
Dall Point to Wales-
155 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-111415-
Kotzebue Sound-
155 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-111415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
155 PM AKDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt becoming N. Seas 7 ft subsiding to
5 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

590 
FZAK52 PAFG 111154
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-120215-
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1001 mb low pressure system currently located in the Northern
Gulf of Alaska will weaken in place through Tuesday. A 1016 mb 
high pressure system over the Eastern Bering Sea continues to
push east onto the West Coast by Monday.

$$

PKZ200-120215-
Norton Sound-
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...E winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-120215-
Dall Point to Wales-
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-120215-
Kotzebue Sound-
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-120215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
354 AM AKDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
132 PM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Less thunderstorm and shower activity in the Central
and Eastern Interior tonight and Saturday. Showers tapering off on
the West Coast as the low moves southeast to Bristol Bay tonight.
A weather front will move across the Arctic Saturday bringing an
increase in showers to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...09/12Z solutions continue the trend of being pretty good
with the short term, but scrambled in the extended periods as
they try to figure out how to handle the ridging over the state
and the broad area of low heights over the Arctic with several
waves moving through the zonal flow. The midrange continues to
struggle, bu it is a little better today with the solutions only
about 200 nm apart instead of 400 nm apart with some of the
features. Short term we will be using a blend of the solutions
with a lean toward the current database. Not going to change the
thunderstorm potential for Fairbanks, but it does look like most
activity will be to the east and northeast of Fairbanks.
Convective indicies indicate good potential today with the Lifted
Indicies in the 0 to -3 range again today, and CAPE values up to
1000 j/kg in the Upper Yukon Valley around Eagle to Circle.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Longwave trough has broken up a bit with it
extending southeast from a low high in the Siberian Arctic to a
541 dam low over Utqiagvik, then southwest to a 543 dam low over
Marshall. A decaying portion of the longwave trough is to the east
of Fairbanks and extends south to a 561 dam low 400 nm southwest
of Yakutat. As the decaying portion moves east ridging will build
in over the AlCan Border Saturday morning, while ridging will also
build in over the Chukchi Sea and Northwest Interior. By Saturday
afternoon a low that develops near the Dateline in the Arctic
will move to 400 nm north of Utqiagvik with troughing extending
southeast to a 556 dam low near Circle and troughing extending
southwest to the low that was over the Lower Yukon Delta, that
will be over Southern Kodiak Island at 547 dam. Ridging will
continue to build across the Interior from the west as a 576 dam
high moves to just west of the Gulf of Anadyr and the Ridge axis
moves over the south slopes of the Western and Central Brooks
Range. By Sunday afternoon ridging will continue to hold between
the ranges as the high to the west move over the Gulf of Anadyr at
579 dam, and a 566 dam high develops just northeast of Fairbanks.
The low in the Arctic will slide east and merge back into the
primary low that will be 800 nm north of Utqiagvik, and another
shortwave will move across the Arctic Sunday. The low to the south
will slide to the southeast and become quasi stationary through
at least Tuesday. At 850 hpa...Pool of temperatures around 0C that
has been hanging over the West Coast and Western Interior will be
eroding tonight as temperatures across the state start warming.
By Saturday evening temperatures will range from around +3C over
the coasts. Temperatures will continue to warm and by most areas
south of the Brooks Range will see temperatures in the +10C to
+15C range.

Surface...A 996 mb low in the Lower Yukon Delta will continue
southeast to Bristol Bay Saturday morning as it weakens to 1001
mb. Weak high pressure spreading east between the ranges tonight
as a 1013 mb high moves to St Matthew Island and a 1011 mb high
moves into the Upper Kobuk Valley, while a 1010 mb high that will
move east over the Arctic Coast tonight will be near Kaktovik
Saturday morning. A 980 mb low 400 nm northwest of Wrangel Island
will move northeast, as it deepens to 968 mb, to the Dateline
tonight with a weather front moving into the Western Arctic and
Chukchi Sea. The low will move east along 80N as the front moves
over the Northwest Arctic Coast during the day Saturday, and to
the Central Arctic and into the Arctic Plain Saturday evening as
the low moves to 500 nm north of Utqiagvik. A 1008 mb low will
form along the front near the Bering Strait Saturday night, then
merge with low pressure over Chukotka. Sunday afternoon weak high
pressure will remain between the ranges with low pressure to the
south in the Gulf of Alaska, and north over the high Arctic.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, areas of fog, and showers
as a weather front will move across the area Saturday. Some
clearing Saturday night and Sunday behind the front, mainly in the
inland areas. Winds southeast to southwest at 10 to 25 mph
becoming west to north, after the front passes by Saturday, at 5
to 15 mph. High temperatures along the coast in the 40s to around
50, and lows in the 30s. Inland temperatures will be in the 50s to
around 60, and lows will be in the 40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Showers tapering off from the
north tonight with some clearing. Areas of fog Saturday and Sunday
morning will reduce visibility until late morning. Winds variable
5 to 15 mph becoming southwest Saturday for most locations. High
temperatures warming into the 50s and 60s this weekend, with lows
in the 40s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated showers and thunderstorms
this evening from Fairbanks east and some scattered thunderstorms
around Eagle. Warmer and drier this weekend with decreased chance
of thunderstorms and showers. Winds variable to 10 mph during the
day for most areas. The exception will be from Delta Junction
south. Around Delta Junction south winds gusting to 20 mph and
closer to the Alaska Range south winds gusting to 30 mph. Highs in
the 60s and 70s, and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Longwave trough axis aloft
will be over the Yukon Territory with ridging aloft building east
between the ranges. Warmer and drier conditions for the Interior
and West Coast with highs ranging from the lower 60s along the
coast to the lower 80s in the Central and Eastern Interior.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms and showers each day. In the
Arctic a weather front will move rapidly across the area bringing
showers with highs along the coast generally in the 40s and lows
in the upper 30s, then high pressure moving across the area mid
week with generally low clouds and areas of fog.

&&

.Fire Weather...Isolated thunderstorms and showers this evening
mainly east of Tanana with scattered thunderstorms near Eagle.
Warming and drying this weekend with some isolated thunderstorms
along the AlCan Border Saturday. Wetting rains mainly west of Ruby
last 24 hours. Low in the Lower Yukon Delta will move southeast
leaving a weak pressure pattern across the Interior for the
weekend. The thermal trough will make a reappearance in the Upper
Yukon Flats next week. High temperatures this weekend will be in
the 60s and 70s after morning lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Minimum Relative Humidity values will range from the mid 20s near
the AlCan Border to the 40s in the Middle Yukon Valley through the
weekend. Overnight Relative Humidity recovery will be fair to
good. Winds variable to 10 mph during the day, then light drainage
winds to 5 mph at night. The exception will be Delta Junction
south to the Alaska Range where they will be south gusting to 20
mph around Delta Junction and around 30 mph near the range through
the weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...Showers tapering off on the West Coast where 0.30 to
0.75 inch of rain has fallen in the last 24 hours. Do not expect
any issues as that area can handle quite a bit of rainfall before
any impacts are seen. For the Interior and the Arctic no issues as
rivers continue to run well below normal mid July levels. For the
latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

SDB JUL 21