Small Craft Advisory 42, NWS Fairbanks, AK

317 
FZAK52 PAFG 091220
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
420 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-100230-
420 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 994 mb low pressure system currently located over the Lower YK
Delta will continue to push south into Bristol Bay through
Saturday morning. A 1008 mb high pressure system over Wrangel
Island will push slowly east over the Northwest Coast into
Saturday. A 1010 mb high will move into the Gulf of Anadyr. The 
high pressure in the Gulf of Anadyr will move into the Northeast 
Bering Sea Saturday.

$$

PKZ200-100230-
Norton Sound-
420 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-100230-
Dall Point to Wales-
420 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-100230-
Kotzebue Sound-
420 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.TODAY...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-100230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
420 AM AKDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
216 PM AKDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Not much change as cloudy, showery, and cooler
conditions across the forecast area will continue into the
weekend. Isolated thunderstorms, mainly Fairbanks east this
evening and northeast of Fairbanks Friday. Heaviest rainfall will
be on the West Coast again with up to 0.75 inch in the Lower
Yukon Delta tonight. Some patchy fog in the Arctic and on the West
Coast will bring visibility down to less than one mile at times.
Some isolated thunderstorms in the Interior, mainly east of
Fairbanks, this evening and northeast of Fairbanks Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...08/12Z solutions are in good agreement for the very
short term, but with several different waves moving through the
flow they are struggling with location and timing beyond the 24
hour point. The midrange is also struggling with handling the
major features as location of the primary low south of the state
on Monday is about 400 miles apart. They are also lacking in
details with the zonal flow across the Arctic from the midrange
on. Short term the GFS and NAM are in better agreement and the
ECMWF is the outlier so will lean on the GFS and NAM for most of
the forecast elements today with a strong lean to continuity with
the forecast database. Convective indicies indicate much better
potential today Lifted Indicies in the 0 to -3 range, and CAPE
values up to 500 j/kg from Fairbanks east. Friday the better
convective indicies are mainly northeast of Fairbanks.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Longwave trough extends from over the Western
Arctic to a 537 dam low near Point Lay to a 548 dam low near
Homer then south this afternoon. The low near Point Lay will dig
south over Norton Sound by Friday morning as the low near Homer
moves over the Northern Gulf of Alaska. The main axis of the
trough will lie over the Western Arctic to Utqiagvik to Fairbanks
to the low in the northern gulf. By Friday afternoon the broad
troughing will be over the area as the trough axis becomes less
defined with several waves moving through the flow. The primary
axis will be over the Central Arctic to Utqiagvik to 542 dam low
over Russian Mission with a trough extending southeast from the
low near Russian Mission to a 559 dam low south of the Gulf of
Alaska. Ridging to the west of the longwave trough will move over
the Dateline. At 850 hpa...Pool of temperatures around 0C remains
over the West Coast and Western Interior. Temperatures will
continue to cool in the Central and Eastern Interior and range
from 0C to +5C across the state through Friday.

Surface...Decaying weather front that was over the coast has
lifted north, and front that was over the West Coast is dragging
to the north over the Central Arctic Coast this evening as high
pressure builds east and west over the coast. A 992 mb low has
moved southeast over the Chukotsk Peninsula and will move
southeast to the lower Yukon Delta tonight at 993 mb. A 1008 mb
high will move into the Chukchi Sea and push high pressure east
over the Arctic Coast as high pressure associated with at 1008 mb
high over Banks Island pushes west across the Eastern Arctic
Coast. Low pressure will remain over the Interior Friday as the
low in the Lower Yukon Delta moves southeast to the Kuskokwim
Delta by Friday night, and Bristol Bay by Saturday morning. A 985
mb low will develop south of the New Siberian Islands Friday
morning and move northeast to the DateLine by Saturday morning at
977 mb, then east along 78N as it drags a front east over the
Arctic Coast Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...No big surprises here with cloudy
conditions, areas of fog, and periods of rain continuing through
Friday. Winds generally southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming west,
except on the Northwest Coast where they will swing around from
the north tonight. High temperatures along the coast in the 40s
and 50s, and lows in the 30s and 40s. Inland temperatures will be
in the 50s to around 60, and low will be in the upper 40s to
around 50.

West Coast and Western Interior...Showers and areas of fog.
Rainfall will range up to 0.75 inch tonight with the heaviest
amounts in the Lower Yukon Delta. Winds on St Lawrence Island will
be kicking up to around 30 mph from the northwest to north as the
low passes by the area. The remainder of the area will have winds
around 10 mph gusting around 20 mph as they swing from the
south to the north overnight. High temperatures in the 40s and
50s, and lows in the 30s and 40s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms this evening from Fairbanks east, then northeast of
Fairbanks on Friday. Cooler temperatures will continue, but will
be warming this weekend. Rainfall through Friday afternoon may
reach 0.25 inch is some areas, but most will see less than 0.10
inch. Winds generally less than 10 mph from the southeast to
southwest. Highs in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the 40s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Longwave trough axis will be
over the AlCan by late Sunday with ridging aloft continuing to
build in over the West Coast, and east over the Brooks Range. The
ridging continues to build in to start the week as warming and
drying trend continues. Temperatures warming back up into the 70s
to around 80 in the Interior by midweek with 60s and 70s for
the remainder of the forecast area south of the Brooks Range. A
series of fast moving weather fronts will impact the Arctic Coast
through the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...Cloudy and cooler conditions will continue
through at least Friday. Expect some very isolated thunderstorm
activity mainly from Fairbanks east this evening, then northeast
of Fairbanks Friday. Increasing chance of wetting rain west of
Tanana tonight. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s after
morning lows in the 40s. Warmer and drier this weekend. Minimum
Relative Humidity values range from the 30s near the AlCan Border
to the 50s northwest of Fairbanks through Friday. Overnight
Relative Humidity recovery will be good to very good. Winds east
to southwest for most Interior locations at 5 to 10 mph with
occasional gusts to 15 mph during the day, then light drainage
winds to 5 mph at night.

&&

.Hydrology...Showers will continue on the West Coast with a low
pressure system moving through the area. Rainfall up to 0.75 inch
tonight in to Lower Yukon Delta. Persistent rainfall in the Upper
Noatak and Upper Kobuk with up to 0.50 inch tonight to add to the
couple inches they have had already this week. The rainfall will
produce some rises in the rivers west and north of Galena, but
they are expected to stay well within banks. For the Arctic and
areas from Galena east showers are expected through at least
Friday with no issues anticipated at this time since most are
running well below normal. For the latest river information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

SDB JUL 21