Small Craft Advisory 40, NWS Fairbanks, AK

181 
FZAK51 PAFG 071159
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
359 AM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-080215-
359 AM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 997 mb low near Point Lay will slowly move north today and
Thursday. A low will strengthen over the Chukotsk Peninsula on
Thursday and will move into the northern Bering Sea on Thursday
night. 

$$

PKZ225-080215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
359 AM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-080215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
359 AM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-080215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
359 AM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 10 kt. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-080215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
359 AM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-080215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
359 AM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

689 
FZAK51 PAFG 072208
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-081400-
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 997 mb low near Utqiagvik will move to 400 nm N of Utqiagvik
Thu afternoon with weak low pressure remaining over the Central
Arctic. High pressure over the Northwest Territories will move NE
into the Southern Beaufort Sea Thu night with a 1010 mb high over
Banks Island. A 1009 mb high will move to Wrangel Island Thu
evening and push E over the Arctic Coast on Fri. 

$$

PKZ225-081400-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-081400-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-081400-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt becoming SW. Fog and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-081400-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt becoming SW. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-081400-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
208 PM AKDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

SDB Jul 21

417 
FZAK51 PAFG 081152
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
352 AM AKDT Thu Jul 8 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-090215-
352 AM AKDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 992 mb low just south of Wrangel Island will continue to move
south and east and will be located over the Bering Strait this
evening and over the Lower YK Delta as a 994 mb low by Friday 
morning. 

$$

PKZ225-090215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
352 AM AKDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-090215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
352 AM AKDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-090215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
352 AM AKDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 30 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-090215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
352 AM AKDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...NW winds 5 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Rain.
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-090215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
352 AM AKDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jul 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
129 PM AKDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Cloudy, showery, and cooler conditions will continue
into late in the week across the forecast area with south to west
winds 5 to 15 mph for most locations.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...06/12Z solutions show a bit less southwest flow into the
state than what they had a couple days ago and that is limiting
the showers in the Central and Eastern Interior today. They are in
good agreement with bringing the trough over the central part of
the state midweek where it will hold on into the weekend before
ridging starts pushing it out to the east. For the short term
today we are leaning on a blend of the current forecast database,
50 percent, and a blend of the current solutions. Will also make
some adjustments based on the current conditions.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging is slowly being pushed to the east
as troughing extends southeast from high in the Siberian Arctic to
a 545 dam low over Norton Sound. A series of shortwave moving
around the low will swing to the northeast over the Central and
Eastern Interior tonight and Wednesday as the trough slowly slides
to the east. By Thursday morning the trough will extend southeast
from a 514 dam low north of the New Siberian Island to a 539 dam
over Atqasuk to a 548 dam low just east of Kodiak Island. The
trough will eventually move east of Fairbanks Friday. At 850
hpa...+10C isotherm is hanging on over the AlCan today with a pool
of temperatures around 0C over the West Coast and Western
Interior. Temperatures will continue to cool in the Central and
Eastern Interior and by Thursday morning they will range from 0C
to +5C across the state.

Surface...Front over the Arctic Coast this afternoon will
continue to lift to the north. Benign pressure pattern over
mainland Alaska with a generally south to north gradient. A
decaying front is moving through the Interior and several more
waves moving through the flow will bring showers to the Interior
through Thursday. A 995 mb low will move into the Chukchi Sea
tonight tightening the pressure gradient across the Chukchi Sea
coast producing increased to around 20 mph north of Kotzebue
Wednesday. A 991 mb low will move to St Lawrence Island Thursday
evening, and to Kuskokwim Bay Friday morning. Winds will increase
in the Norton Sound Region and the Lower Yukon Delta Thursday
night to around 20 mph and gusty.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, areas of fog, and periods
of rain. Winds 5 to 15 mph will be swinging around the dial as
the front over the coast moves offshore and dissipates.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs along the
coast in the 40s and 50s, and lows in the 30s and 40s. Inland
temperatures will be in the 50s to around 60, and low will be in
the upper 40s to around 50.

West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy with showers and fog.
Temperatures will be on the cool side with highs in the 40s and
50s, and lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will swing around a little
as the lows move into the area, but generally southwest to west
at 5 to 15 mph. Winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph from Kotzebue
north, and on St Lawrence Island, Wednesday. Rainfall will range
up to around one half inch with the heaviest rainfall in the Upper
Kobuk, Norton Sound Region, and Lower Yukon Delta.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy and cooler with occasional
showers moving through the area. Rainfall through Wednesday
afternoon will be less than one quarter inch with the heaviest
rainfall in the Fortymile Country and along the AlCan Border.
Winds generally less than 10 mph from the south to west.
Temperatures cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the
40s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Unsettled pattern will remain
over the state into the weekend bringing cloudy conditions and
occasional showers across the state, then ridging aloft will build
in over northwest Alaska and slowly push east and south as the
ridge builds over the state Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...Cloudy and cooler with increased chance of
showers from the Western Interior east. Showers will continue on
along the West Coast. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s.
Minimum Relative Humidity values falling into the lower 30s along
the AlCan Border the next couple days, and into the 40s and 50s
from Central west. Overnight Relative Humidity recovery will be
good. Winds south to west for most locations at 5 to 10 mph with
occasional gusts to 15 mph during the day, then light drainage
winds to 5 mph at night.

&&

.Hydrology...Rainfall up to one inch along the West Coast will
bring some minor rises in the rivers west of Galena. For the
Arctic and areas from Galena east in the Interior no issues at
this time, but showers are expected over the next several days.
For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

SDB JUL 21