Small Craft Advisory 33, NWS Fairbanks, AK

506 
FZAK52 PAFG 292308
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-301415-
308 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...

A front across the Bering Strait to Chukchi Sea Coast will weaken
tonight. A 992 mb low will form over the N Bering Sea Thu with a
second trough of low pressure over the West Coast.

$$

PKZ200-301415-
Norton Sound-
308 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-301415-
Dall Point to Wales-
308 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-301415-
Kotzebue Sound-
308 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-301415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
308 PM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

217 
FZAK52 PAFG 301216
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
416 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-010200-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weather front is moving into Norton Sound and will move NW and
merge with the front that lies across the Chukchi Sea this
evening. Another weather front will lie from a 992 mb low near the
Pribilofs to Sand Point Thu morning and will move up the W coast 
and across the Northeast Bering Sea Thu. 

$$

PKZ200-010200-
Norton Sound-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-010200-
Dall Point to Wales-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. SE winds 25 kt S of St Lawrence Island. 
Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. NE winds 25 kt NW of St Lawrence 
Island. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-010200-
Kotzebue Sound-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-010200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
416 AM AKDT Wed Jun 30 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 20 kt decreasing to 10 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding
to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

SDB Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
425 AM AKDT Tue Jun 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Heavy rains in the Western Brooks Range so a Flood
Watch is in effect for drainages out of the area. Heavy rains
along the Arctic Coast as well with standing water reported at
Deadhorse yesterday so expect rivers and streams in the plains and
along the coast to be rising. On the West Coast rainfall will be
mostly north of Kotzebue and a Flood Watch is in effect for rivers
draining out of the Western Brooks Range. From Kotzebue south a
mix of clouds. The Interior will also see a mix of clouds with a
slight chance of thunderstorms along the AlCan Border again today.
Southwest to west winds will prevail across the state picking up
to 10 to 20 mph for most areas with south winds to 40 mph near the
Bering Strait. Winds will diminish to 5 to 15 mph tonight with
winds to 30 mph near the Bering Strait. Temperatures a few degrees
cooler across the state today.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 29/00Z solutions are in good agreement and the
29/06Z shows good run to run continuity through the short term.
Big picture wise the solutions remain in good agreement through
most of the extended periods as well. The surface solutions
initialized well against the 29/06Z local analysis. Ridging will
dominate south of the Brooks Range through the short term, with
troughing over the Arctic and to the southwest over the Aleutians.
Several waves will move around the lows and the solutions have a
good handle on them in the very short term. Going with a general
blend of the solutions and with a lean toward the current forecast
database for the short term to maintain continuity with previous
forecasts.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing over the Arctic extends south from
a 509 dam low 500 nm north of Utqiagvik. A wave moving around the
low lies over the Northern Beaufort Sea southwest to the Western
Brooks Range. The low that was over Norton Sound yesterday has
moved southwest over St Matthew Island at 555 dam and will merge
with the 530 dam low over the Central Aleutians this evening. The
560 dam low that was over Kodiak Island has moved over the Copper
River Basin at 561 dam. Ridging that was over the eastern half of
the Interior has been pushed back over the Yukon Territory.
Ridging has pushed north over the southwest mainland to the Middle
Yukon Valley. A shortwave moving around the low over the Arctic
extends south into the Interior just west of Fairbanks this
morning and will move east of Fairbanks by noon and to the AlCan
Border this evening. Strong zonal flow will continue south of the
Arctic low over the Arctic Coast through Thursday. Ridging will
build north to the Brooks Range as the low over the Copper River
Basin moves over the Yukon Territory with 570 dam heights pushing
north over the Southern Interior by Wednesday evening. The low
over the Aleutians will move over Adak Wednesday evening at 530
dam, while the low in the Arctic will move east along 80N to the
Canadian Archipelago with a sharp trough extending across the
Arctic to Wrangel Island. At 850 hpa...+10C isotherm has been
pushed back of the Yukon Territory while the 0C isotherm has
pushed south over the Arctic Coast. There is also a pool of 0C
temperatures over the Lower Yukon Delta that will move southwest
with the upper level low in the area. The cold over the Arctic
Coast will push south to the Brooks Range tonight. Warm air will
surge over the Southeast Interior Wednesday afternoon as the +10C
isotherm will lie from Eagle to Denali by Wednesday evening. The
cold over the Arctic Coast will hold on through Friday morning.

Surface...Broad area of low pressure remains over the Arctic with
a 984 mb low 500 nm north of Utqiagvik. A weather front continues
to lie from the Northern Beaufort Sea southwest over the Western
Brooks Range to a 1001 mb low near Point Hope, then west to a 1000
mb low in Chukotka, but has moved to the southeast of Utqiagvik.
High pressure remains mainly south of the Brooks Range with the
exception of a weak low in the Copper River Basin that will move
northeast into the Yukon Territory later today. The thermal trough
is over the Upper Yukon Flats and north of Fairbanks along the
Yukon River, and will slide a little further to the east today.
Wednesday morning the low in the Arctic will be over the Northern
Beaufort Sea at 993 mb with the front extending southwest to a
1009 mb low near Demarcation Point, then west to a 1010 mb low
near Nuiqsut, and southwest to a 1011 mb low in the Southern
Chukchi Sea. High pressure will be pushing in over the Northwest
Arctic Coast with a 1015 mb high near Wrangel Island. High
pressure will remains south of the Brooks Range, and the low in
the Bering Sea will be 100 nm north of Atka at 981 mb.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy over the Northwest Arctic
Coast to Utqiagvik with the weather front to the southeast of
those areas. Cloudy with rain over the Eastern Arctic Coast and
Western Brooks Range will continue and a Flood Watch has been
issued for the Western Brooks Range with additional rainfall up to
1.5 inches today and tonight. Temperatures will be cooler with
snow mixing in with the rain in the overnight and morning hours,
but no accumulation is expected. Temperatures on the Northwest
Coast to Utqiagvik will be in the 30s. East of Utqiagvik along the
Coast highs will be in the 40s today and 30s and 40s Wednesday
with lows in the 30s. Inland and in the Brooks Range highs will be
in the 40s and 50s today and Wednesday with lows in the 30s and
40s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy. Rain north of Kotzebue.
Rain heavy at times in the Noatak and Kobuk Basins and the Brooks
Range with up to 2 inches of additional rainfall. High pressure
has pushed north to Norton Sound and the Middle Yukon Valley.
Highs from Kotzebue north in the 40s, and to the south in the 50s
and 60s. Lows will be in the 40s to around 50. Winds south to west
10 to 25 mph except gusting to 50 mph in the Bering Strait.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some isolated thunderstorms in the
Southeast Interior near Northway today, elsewhere a mix of clouds
and sun through the day. Areas of smoke, mainly in the Tanana
Valley. Winds southwest to 10 mph will increase to southwest at 10
to 15 mph gusting to 25 mph later this morning, then variable to
10 mph tonight. Temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s with
overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Ridging aloft, but with
southwest flow that will allow a decaying front to move across the
state Saturday bringing some showers to most areas south of the
Brooks Range. Showers will spread northeast with a low developing
in the Eastern Brooks Range Sunday morning, then moving northeast
Sunday night. Another front will move to the southwest mainland
Sunday spreading showers north up the coast and northeast into the
Interior Monday, and into the Central and Eastern Interior
Tuesday.

.Fire Weather...Isolated thunderstorms from Northway east this
afternoon. Most of the West Coast and Interior will see a mix of
clouds and sun today. The Noatak and Kobuk regions will be getting
wetting rains over most of the area. Southwest winds will prevail
across the state and will increase to 5 to 20 mph gusting to 25
mph locally. Temperatures a couple degrees cooler than yesterday,
but will start warming Wednesday, and by Thursday most Interior
locations will see high temperatures rise into the 80s. Minimum
relative humidity values will be above 35 percent today and 30
percent Wednesday. With the much warmer temperatures starting
Thursday the Relative Humidity values will be falling below 30
percent. Good overnight recovery through mid week.

&&

.Hydrology...Flood Watch has been issued due to the heavy showers
in the Northwest Arctic, Brooks Range, and Upper Noatak and Kobuk
Valleys. Additional rainfall up to 2 inches expected today.
Drainages out of the Brooks Range will see sharp rises this week.
Interior rivers continue to run below normal levels and that will
continue through the weekend. For the latest river information go
to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch for AKZ205-AKZ208-AKZ217.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

&&

SDB JUN 21