Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

781 
FZAK52 PAFG 202209
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-211415-
209 PM AKDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
1025 mb High pressure center will persist over the Arctic Coast 
through Sunday as a low pressure trough persists over Cape 
Lisburne. High will weaken slightly on Monday.

$$

PKZ200-211415-
Norton Sound-
209 PM AKDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-211415-
Dall Point to Wales-
209 PM AKDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-211415-
Kotzebue Sound-
209 PM AKDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas building to 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-211415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
209 PM AKDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

826 
FZAK52 PAFG 211156
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
356 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-220215-
356 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
1025 mb High pressure center will persist over the Arctic Coast 
through Tue as a low pressure trough persists over Cape Lisburne
and another over Norton Sound through tonight. A 980 mb low will
move into Bristol Bay Wed.

$$

PKZ200-220215-
Norton Sound-
356 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...E winds 5 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-220215-
Dall Point to Wales-
356 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-220215-
Kotzebue Sound-
356 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-220215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
356 AM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

878 
FZAK52 PAFG 212220
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
220 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-221415-
220 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
1025 mb High pressure center will persist over the Arctic Coast 
through Tue as a low pressure trough persists over Cape Lisburne
and another over Norton Sound through tonight. A 980 mb low will
move into Bristol Bay Wed.

$$

PKZ200-221415-
Norton Sound-
220 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-221415-
Dall Point to Wales-
220 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-221415-
Kotzebue Sound-
220 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-221415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
220 PM AKDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
334 AM AKDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An easterly wave disturbance is moving west across the
Central/Western Interior, bringing rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms, which will continue through this afternoon. More
stable southerly flow will develop behind this system over the
Eastern Interior today, with warmer temps and a break from
thunderstorms, although showers will still be possible. Another
easterly wave will bring rain to the Eastern Interior tonight and
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
An easterly wave aloft is tracking northwest across the Interior.
There is a ridge axis over the eastern Arctic with another low
moving into the Gulf of Alaska. Widespread rain showers are still
occurring over parts of the Central and Western INterior, along
with some periodic lightning strikes according to lightning
sensors. South flow aloft over the AK Range has kicked up gap
winds through the passes.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist through the day
from the White Mountains north to the Upper Koyukuk Valley as an
easterly wave stalls over this region. Some afternoon showers will
also form over the Fortymile Uplands and Eastern AK Range.
Tonight, another easterly wave will form over the Yukon and rotate
into the Fortymile Uplands, upper Tanana Valley, and Eastern
Alaska Range. This will bring showers and moderate accumulating
rainfall through Monday night, with the potential for 0.50-1"
rainfall before it is over. Isolated thunderstorms will once again
be possible, as well, across the White Mountains and Yukon Flats
and west to the Ray Mountains and upper Koyukuk Monday. Tuesday
will be drier and warmer with shower threats mainly over the AK
Range and higher terrain.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be active today as an
easterly waves stalls over the area. Some locally heavy rain in
thunderstorms is likely over the Interior, especially over the
Upper Kobuk Valley where the surface low will track, with a slight
chance for a thunderstorm as far west as the Selawik Valley and
eastern Seward Peninsula.

The upper level steering flow gradually shifts to southeasterly
aloft which will keep thunderstorm threats over the Interior
through Tuesday and will gradually shift to the Seward Peninsula
and coastal areas as the steering flow becomes more favorable for
potential storms moving offshore.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Another active day of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the Brooks Range today with the instability axis from Ambler
to Arctic Village. After today, high pressure builds in aloft and
will bring an end to thunderstorm threats until maybe Tue over the
western Brooks. Beyond this, stratus and fog is building back in
over the west Arctic and is moving inland, and will begin to move
east as well today. Stratus and fog will likely persist through
most of Tue as the flow remains onshore.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period on Wednesday, there will be a broad
low over the Gulf of North Pacific with a ridge of high pressure
over the Yukon. South flow aloft will be on the increase, with
warm temps over much of the Mainland, with some possible 80 degree
readings. Several waves of energy aloft from the southern low will
shift inland all the way through the weekend, with active weather
inland and gradually cooling temps as the ridge aloft shifts east.
Expect gusty south winds through the AK Range gaps to persist
pretty much the entire extended period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active wet thunderstorms will shift from the Eastern Interior to
predominantly the Western Interior today, and will also persist
along the Brooks Range as an easterly wave tracks to the West
Coast. These storms will be quite wet and may produce copious
rainfall at times. The Eastern Interior will be much drier today
and stable, as well as warmer, although there will be some
afternoon mountain showers. Isolated thunderstorms threats will
remain over the Yukon Flats and higher terrain as well as
northwest of Beaver to the Upper Koyukuk. Isolated thunderstorms
are again possible Monday over most of the southern Interior and
higher elevations. Heavy rainfall is possible over the Fortymile
and Eastern AK Range late tonight through Monday. Warmer and
drier Tuesday as ridging aloft builds in briefly, with the
thunderstorm threat relegated to the Western Interior and YK
Delta.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is now a high likelihood of moderate rainfall over the
Eastern Interior Monday that will bring rises to streams and
creeks in the Fortymile Country as well as rivers/streams draining
the north slopes of the Eastern AK Range. Some uncertainty still
exists but there will be the potential for .50-1.00" of rainfall
over this area, with a sharp cutoff moving west along the Tanana
Valley. Currently no significant flooding is anticipated, but this
will bring at least some minor rises across the Fortymile and
Tetlin basins, and eventually down the Tanana River.

For the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

AHSENMACHER JUN 21