Small Craft Advisory 196, NWS Fairbanks, AK

645 
FZAK52 PAFG 210037
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
337 PM AKST Sat Nov 20 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-211515-
337 PM AKST Sat Nov 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
An area of high pressure centered 150 nautical miles north of 
Wrangel Island will strengthen in place to 1042 mb by Sunday 
morning and to 1045 mb by 4pm Monday. A 960 mb low will move to
400 nautical miles south of Adak by 4pm Monday.

$$

PKZ200-211515-
Norton Sound-
337 PM AKST Sat Nov 20 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-211515-
Dall Point to Wales-
337 PM AKST Sat Nov 20 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-211515-
Kotzebue Sound-
337 PM AKST Sat Nov 20 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-211515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
337 PM AKST Sat Nov 20 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

268 
FZAK52 PAFG 211248
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
348 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-220315-
348 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
An 1042 area of high pressure centered 150 NM N of Wrangel Island
will remain in place through Tuesday before slowly sliding east. A
960 mb low will move to 400 nautical miles south of Adak by 4pm 
Monday.

$$

PKZ200-220315-
Norton Sound-
348 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-220315-
Dall Point to Wales-
348 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-220315-
Kotzebue Sound-
348 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-220315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
348 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

779 
FZAK52 PAFG 220041
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-221545-
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1042 mb area of high pressure centered 150 NM N of Wrangel Island
will remain in place through Tuesday before weakening and slowly 
sliding northeast to 1032 mb 500 NM NE of Wrangel Island by 4pm
Wed. A 962 mb low will move to 400 nautical miles south of Adak 
by 4pm Monday.

$$

PKZ200-221545-
Norton Sound-
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-221545-
Dall Point to Wales-
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or 
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-221545-
Kotzebue Sound-
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-221545-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 30 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
242 PM AKST Fri Nov 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Mostly clear skies and cold temperatures exist south of the
Brooks Range this afternoon with light snow over the North Slope.
Blizzard conditions on the Eastern Arctic Coast are improving now
as winds decrease. North winds through the Bering Strait will
increase on Saturday and may cause freezing spray to blow inland
on the north shore of St. Lawrence Island, specifically at
Savoonga through early next week. NE winds over Dalton, Steese,
and Elliott Highway summits will pick up again on Saturday night
with blowing snow and low visibility possible into Monday. Some
light snow is possible in the Central and Eastern Interior Sunday
night and Monday. Otherwise, continued below normal temperatures
and mostly dry conditions are expected through the weekend and
into next week for most of Northern Alaska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 19/12z model suite initialized well compared to
observations. Models are in good agreement through Sunday with
few differences. On Sunday night, models begin to differ on
precipitation with the NAM and ECMWF spreading snow further west
into the Central Interior than the GFS. This difference continues
into Monday with the NAM and ECMWF spreading snow from Kaltag to
McGrath and east along the Alaska Range, while the GFS is mostly
dry. We will use a blend of all models for winds, precipitation,
and temperatures and make adjustments for local effects and based
on current observations.

Aloft...At 500 mb, broad scale northwest flow is present over
Mainland Alaska. Weak ridging persists over the West Coast and
Bering Sea, and a longwave trough is present over the eastern half
of the state and east into northern Canada. This pattern will
amplify through the weekend as a 515 dam low near Atka dives SE
and merges with the longwave trough to reestablish troughing over
all of Mainland Alaska. Multiple embedded disturbances will move
to near Prince William Sound and allow for brief periods of
easterly flow over the Eastern Interior of AK.

Surface...High pressure will build over the Yukon Territory
Saturday morning and allow a Tanana Valley Jet to establish
itself. As a result, east winds near Delta Junction will persist
through Sunday. By 10am Sunday, a 984 mb low will move to Prince
William Sound as a 1040 mb high builds north of Wrangel Island.
This will lead to a strong offshore gradient and allow NE winds to
continue across most of northern Alaska through mid week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Blizzard conditions across the
eastern Arctic Coast will improve this afternoon as winds
diminish. Light snow mainly south and east of Utqiagvik will
continue through tonight before tapering off tomorrow morning.
Accumulations are expected to be less than an inch, though winds
will cause drifting of snow in areas it falls. A much weaker
second weather front may bring a brief period of light snow to
the eastern Arctic late Saturday night. Otherwise high pressure
will lead to mostly quiet weather across the Arctic Coast through
mid week. North winds through Brooks Range passes are expected to
continue through mid-week.

West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly clear and calm conditions
are expected to continue until Saturday night when north winds
will pick up through the Bering Strait. This may cause freezing
spray to blow inland on the north shore of St. Lawrence Island,
potentially leading to ice accumulation on power lines, buildings,
and roads at Savoonga. Snow showers will also develop Saturday and
persist through Monday on St. Lawrence Island. Up to 4" of
accumulation is expected with brief periods of low visibility.
The rest of the West Coast and Western Interior will remain mostly
clear with the exceptions for light snow chances SE of the Yukon
River on Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Another night of clear skies and
cold temperatures are expected across the Interior. Lows will
range from 10 below on hills and summits to 40 below in the cold
valley locations. The Fairbanks area is expected to be 25 to 35
below. Saturday will again be mostly sunny and cold. Winds over
Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway summits will ramp up Saturday
night and continue into Monday. This may cause blowing snow and
areas of significantly reduced visibility. Saturday night will be
a bit warmer than Friday night. On Sunday, light snow will spread
into the Eastern Interior, with chances of snow spreading into the
Central Interior Sunday night and west to near McGrath by Monday
morning. Accumulations will be mostly less than two inches.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...North winds will increase
to 30 mph through the Bering Strait on Saturday night. This may
cause freezing spray to blow inland on the north shore of St.
Lawrence Island, potentially leading to ice accumulation on power
lines, buildings, and roads at Savoonga.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Freeze up of major rivers in the Interior continues
without any known issues at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.
&&

CHRIEST NOV 21