Small Craft Advisory 194, NWS Fairbanks, AK

244 
FZAK51 PAFG 132131
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1231 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-141530-
1231 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1014 mb low near Wrangel Island will move will move to near 
Cape Lisburne as a 1016 mb low by 3am Sun, and then move inland. A
weather front stretching north from this low will move to Point 
Barrow to Cape Lisburne by 3am Sun, and then continue east to 
Demarcation Point by midnight Sun night.

$$

PKZ225-141530-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
1231 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-141530-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
1231 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-141530-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
1231 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 5 kt becoming NE. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-141530-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
1231 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-141530-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
1231 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
133 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Generally pretty quiet, with some flurries and light
snow in the Central and Eastern Interior through Saturday morning,
but snowfall amounts will generally be less than 2 inches. The
Arctic will maintain the stratus over the coastal areas with some
flurries, while inland some clearing as high pressure that has
moved over the West Coast will be pushing east across the Arctic
Plain, Brooks Range, and into the Western Interior. Temperatures
will be falling though the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...12/12Z solutions are in fairly good agreement through
Monday night, then diverge quite a bit. There are some issues
early with the GFS probability being the outlier, so will lean
away from it and use the NAM and ECMWF for the first couple
periods before moving to a general blend of the solutions. For the
extended periods the 12Z ECMWF has gone astray from previous
solutions, so will lean more toward the 12Z GFS and blend it with
the 00Z ECMWF to maintain some continuity which will lean toward
the colder solution for next week.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing extends from a 509 dam over the
Siberian Arctic and a 511 dam low over the Central Beaufort Sea,
south over the central part of the state to a 500 dam low over
Homer. A 525 dam low is moving north of the Yukon Territory, and a
shortwave is moving over the AlCan Border today. Troughing
extends southwest from the low over Homer over the Central
Pacific. Ridging has pushed north over the Bering Sea with 525 dam
heights pushing north over Wrangel Island and east over the West
Coast and Bristol Bay. By Saturday afternoon the lows over the
Arctic will be over 80N, near the Dateline at 500 dam and over the
Beaufort Sea at 506 dam. The low to the south will move 150 nm
southeast over the Gulf of Alaska at 517 dam. Ridging will
continue to push north over the Bering sea with 525 dam heights
being pushed south of Wrangel Island by a shortwave moving around
the low near the Dateline, but will be pushing east over the
Western Interior. By Sunday afternoon the trough axis will shift
east over the AlCan Border as the lows merge in the Arctic with a
497 dam low 300 nm north of Prudhoe Bay and the low to the south
moving southeast to 350 nm south of Yakutat. A shortwave moving
around the low in the Arctic will lie over Oliktok Point to
Selawik. Ridging over the West Coast and Bering Sea will weaken
with the axis lying from the North Pacific over Bristol Bay to St
Lawrence Island to a 538 dam high over Chukotka. At 850 hpa...The
-10C isotherm is south and west of the state with a pool of -20C
over the Middle Tanana Valley and along the north slopes of the
Alaska Range, with another along the north slopes of the Brooks
Range. The -10C isotherm will remains south of the state, but will
push northeast over the southwest coast and Bristol Bay this
weekend, and the pools of -20C over the state will moderate
through Saturday. Strong upper level low in the Arctic will push
cold air into the Interior starting Sunday with temperatures
falling to -20C or colder east of a line from Point Lay to Healy
by Monday afternoon.

Surface...High pressure is pushing in over the West Coast and
Western Interior, then across the Brooks Range and Arctic Plain
with a 1016 mb high over the Western Brooks Range. A 1016 mb high
is also over the Seward Peninsula with high pressure extending
south the southwest to a 1032 mb high south of Amchitka. A 991 mb
low has moved over Prince William Sound, and a 992 mb low along
the front has moved over the Northern Panhandle. A 1003 mb low
that was near the Eastern Arctic Coast yesterday has moved to the
Central Beaufort Sea. Saturday morning high pressure will be
holding over the Brooks Range and Arctic Plain with a 1021 mb
high in the Central Brooks Range and high pressure extending
southwest to a 1019 mb high on the Seward Peninsula, then
southwest to the high in the Pacific. A 1013 mb low will move near
St Matthew Island tonight, then weaken and merge with a 990 mb low
that will move into the Western Bering Sea Saturday. A 1011 mb low
will move out of Chukotka to Wrangel Island tonight, and to the
Northwest Arctic Coast by Saturday evening at 1013 mb. High
pressure will continue to hold over the Brooks Range through
Saturday night as high pressure builds over Interior Alaska with a
1025 mb high near Bettles, a 1024 mb high near Russian Mission,
and a 1025 mb high near Delta Junction Sunday morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Winds diminishing through the
night as the low in the Beaufort Sea moves northeast, and high
pressure builds in over the area. Still going to keep some low
clouds over the coastal areas, but expect breaks and some clearing
in the inland areas and the Brooks Range tonight. Snow tapering
off in the Brooks Range this evening with no significant
accumulation. With the low clouds over the coast expect some
flurries. East of Utqiagvik winds will continue from the west at
10 to 25 mph, but will be diminishing tonight to 5 to 15 mph.
Around Utqiagvik winds northwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming
southwest. West of Utqiagvik south winds 5 to 15 mph. Inland and
in the Brooks Range winds variable 5 to 15 mph, but near the
passes winds will swing around from the south at 10 to 20 mph and
gusty. Highs 5 to 15 above for most areas, with lows in the single
digits above to around 5 below.

West Coast and Western Interior...High pressure will be moving
inland with increasing clouds in the Chukchi Sea Region, Bering
Strait and on St Lawrence Island tonight, and through the day
Saturday in the Norton Sound Region. Increasing chances of snow
starting Saturday morning in the Chukchi Sea Region, Bering
Strait, and on St Lawrence Island, spreading south to the Norton
Sound Region Sunday. Winds generally light and variable today.
Winds in the Chukchi Sea Region becoming south and increasing to 5
to 15 mph Saturday while areas to the south will continue to see
light and variable winds. Highs in the teens and 20s along the
coast, around 30 on St Lawrence Island, and in the single digits
above and below in the inland areas. Lows will range from the 20s
above on St Lawrence Island and the capes to the single digits
above along the coast to the teens below inland.

Central and Eastern Interior...Low in the Gulf of Alaska will
continue to spin moisture up over the AlCan and into the Eastern
and Central Interior tonight with Cloudy conditions prevailing
south of the Yukon River. Flurries or light snow mainly south
of the Yukon with the heaviest snowfall in the Fortymile Country
with up to 2 inches. Areas from Delta Junction west can expect
less than one inch. Snow will spread north up the AlCan and into
the Porcupine and Colleen River Basins as the front moves north
with up to 2 inches of snow. High pressure building into the
Interior Saturday with some clearing skies and falling
temperatures. Winds variable to 10 mph. Highs in the Single
digits above through Sunday, then falling to Zero to 10 below next
week. Lows zero to 10 below, except around 20 below near Central,
through Sunday, then 10 below to 35 below next week with the
coldest temperatures around Central and north of the Yukon River.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Cooling temperatures across
most of the forecast area as cold air from the Arctic is pulled
southeast into the Interior. Lows falling to 5 to 35 below by
Tuesday. Coldest temperatures will be north of the Yukon River. A
low will drop out of the high Arctic to the Arctic Coast Wednesday
bringing snow to most of the Arctic, and gusty winds with blowing
snow to areas from Prudhoe Bay east the remainder of the week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB NOV 21