Small Craft Advisory 191, NWS Fairbanks, AK

929 
FZAK52 PAFG 061203
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
403 AM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-070230-
403 AM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 995 mb low near Kivalina will move north into the Chukchi Sea
today. Weak fronts will cross the N Bering Sea through Mon.

$$

PKZ200-070230-
Norton Sound-
403 AM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Freezing fog.
Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-070230-
Dall Point to Wales-
403 AM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-070230-
Kotzebue Sound-
403 AM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. 
Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-070230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
403 AM AKDT Sat Nov 6 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing
fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Nov 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
208 AM AKDT Fri Nov 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Much of northern Alaska remains quiet under the influence of a
strong upper level ridge extending from western Canada northwest
to the North Slope. A weak area of low pressure will push northwest
over the Eastern and Central Interior today and will produce
cloudy skies and a chance of light snow. This low will merge with
a second low that continues to move north over the West Coast and
Western Interior today and will push into the Southern Chukchi Sea
near Point Hope on Saturday. A tight gradient will continue to
produce gusty north to northwest winds through the Southern
Chukchi Sea, the Bering Strait and the Northern Bering Sea.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...the 05/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z
surface analysis and upper air observations. Model spread remains
minimal in the short range and into early next week but begins to
display considerable spread by the middle of next week with the
position, strength and track of synoptic scale features.

Aloft at 500 mb the key feature remains a broad longwave trough
stretching from the pole southward along the dateline and over the
West Coast of Alaska and into the Northern Pacific. The trough
continues to narrow with an strong upper level ridge building west
slowly from the Yukon and Northern British Columbia and as ridging
builds over the Western Bering Sea. 850 mb temperatures over
Northern Alaska will continue to slowly cool over the Weekend with
temperatures over Fairbanks currently around zero Celsius
dropping to around 6 below by Saturday morning and 8 below by
Sunday. 850 mb temperatures continue to drop on Monday to around
10 below and to around 15 below on Tuesday. 850 mb temperatures
around 15 below are expected to remain over much of northern
Alaksa into late next week. Cloud cover will play a crucial role
in what temperates are realized at the surface but in general a
cooling trend to near normal or slightly below normal temperatures
is expected into next week.

On the surface a weak low over the Eastern Interior will continue
to push north and west today into the Western Interior where this
low will merge with a low moving north along the West Coast tonight
and will push off shore into the Southern Chukchi Sea on Saturday.
Areas of clouds and light snow or flurries are expected to move
through the Eastern and Central Interior today and tonight. Light
snow will develop and move north along the West Coast and Western
Interior as a surface low pressure system currently over Kodiak
Island moves north today and merges with the weak low moving
northwest through the Eastern and Central Interior and tonight.
The lows will merge near Kotzebue and move north into the Southern
Chukchi Sea on Saturday. Light snow in the 1 to 2 inch range is
expected along the West Coast and Western Interior today and into
tonight while around an 1 inch of snow expected over the northern
portions of the Central Interior with the low moving northwest
through the Central and Eastern Interior, Most locations in the
southern interior will receive flurries or very light
accumulations.

As the low pressures systems merge tonight over the Western Brooks
Range and Western North Slope winds will increase over much of the
Coastal Areas of the North Slope as well as the northern foothills
of the Eastern Brooks Range and the Eastern Plains of the North
Slope. The strong winds will produce lower visibilities in blowing
snow over the Eastern Portions of the Arctic Coast, however lack
of falling snow in these areas will likely prevent the need for
Winter Weather Headlines in these areas tonight.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC NOV 21