Small Craft Advisory 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

996 
FZAK52 PAFG 132211
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
211 PM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-141400-
211 PM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure over the Chukchi Sea will be pushed E as a 997 mb 
low 200 nm W of St Lawrence Island moves over the Chukotsk 
Peninsula Mon Morning, then into the Chukchi Sea Mon evening as 
the front gets dragged up the coast. High pressure will build over
the area Tue as the low moves into the Western Arctic. 

$$

PKZ200-141400-
Norton Sound-
211 PM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-141400-
Dall Point to Wales-
211 PM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Strongest winds near the Bering Strait.
Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-141400-
Kotzebue Sound-
211 PM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Fog.
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. 
.WED...W winds 5 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 5 kt. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-141400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
211 PM AKDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. SE winds 25 kt near the Bering Strait.
Seas building to 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

sdb Jun 21

567 
FZAK52 PAFG 141220
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
420 AM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-150230-
420 AM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 996 mb low west St Lawrence Island moves over the Chukotsk 
Peninsula this afternoon, then into the Chukchi Sea early Tuesday
morning as a front gets dragged up the West Coast. High pressure 
will build over the area Tuesday as the low moves north into the
Arctic Tuesday night.

$$

PKZ200-150230-
Norton Sound-
420 AM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-150230-
Dall Point to Wales-
420 AM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-150230-
Kotzebue Sound-
420 AM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.WED...N winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-150230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
420 AM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog, rain. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

190 
FZAK52 PAFG 142216
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-151400-
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 997 mb low moving N into the Western Chukchi Sea will continue 
to move N dragging a weather front over the West Coast through Tue
morning. High pressure will start building in with clearing by 
Tue evening. 

$$

PKZ200-151400-
Norton Sound-
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-151400-
Dall Point to Wales-
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-151400-
Kotzebue Sound-
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.WED...N winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.THU...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-151400-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
216 PM AKDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt becoming S and increasing to 25 kt. Seas
building to 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

SDB Jun 21

624 
FZAK52 PAFG 151154
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-160215-
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 996 mb low moving N into the Western Chukchi Sea will continue 
to move N dragging a weather front over the West Coast this
morning. High pressure will start building in with clearing by 
this evening.

$$

PKZ200-160215-
Norton Sound-
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt becoming NE. Seas 2 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Seas calm. Fog.
.WED...SE winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-160215-
Dall Point to Wales-
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-160215-
Kotzebue Sound-
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt becoming W. Seas 2 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.WED...SW winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. Seas calm. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ220-160215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
354 AM AKDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1252 PM AKDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...In the Central and Eastern Interior and north to the
Eastern Arctic Plain, isolated to scattered thunderstorms and
showers this evening and again Sunday. Cloudy with showers on the
West Coast as weak front moves into the area. Central and Western
Arctic will remain cloudy with areas of fog.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 12/12Z solutions show similar agreement as the last
few runs through the midrange, but go a bit sideways in the
extended periods as the ridge breaks down and troughing to the
north and west becomes more active. At 12/15Z surface solutions
initialized well against the local analysis. Convective indicies
are fair to good the next several days, the big question is how
much will the ridging aloft suppress convection. Lifted Indicies
range from +1 to -3, and CAPE values range up to around 1200 J/kg.
For precipitation will be using a general blend, but will be
filling in some of the holes to capture the showers. With the 850
hpa temperatures rising over the Interior surface temperatures
will also be rising so will make so adjustment to the current
database to capture that. Going with a general blend for winds
today through Monday. Will need to make some adjustments to the
winds near the Alaska Range Passes for Tuesday as the thermal
trough sets up along the north slopes of the range and winds will
kick up and be gusting to around 25 mph.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing to the northwest with a 529 dam
low 400 nm north of Utqiagvik and a trough extending southwest to
a 542 dam low near the Western Gulf of Anadyr. Ridging lies over
the state from Banks Island over Demarcation Point to Tanana to
Kuskokwim Bay. A 549 dam low has moved over Kodiak Island as it
continues to moves southeast. A546 dam low has moved northwest
over the Northwest Territories and will continue to move northwest
through Sunday before moving east. Not much change in the
troughing to the west through Sunday afternoon as the low in the
Arctic moves to 600 nm north of Deadhorse, and the low near the
Gulf of Anadyr moves to 200 nm west of St Lawrence Island at 535
dam. Ridging over the state will build in place with a 560 dam
high over Denali and ridging extending northeast to Banks Island,
and southwest over Bristol Bay, then south over the Pacific. The
low over Kodiak Island will continue moving southeast and merge
with a 549 dam low over the Northeast Pacific. A 548 dam low will
move across the Northern Pacific to 400 nm south of Adak by Sunday
afternoon, and 200 nm south of Dutch Harbor by Monday afternoon.
Ridging will hold strong over the Interior at Monday afternoon a
565 dam high will be over Fairbanks. The low west of St Lawrence
Island will move north over the Chukotsk Peninsula Monday
afternoon at 534 dam, then over the Southwestern Arctic Tuesday.
At 850 hpa...Temperatures warming over mainland Alaska and the 0C
isotherm has been pushed west to lie from Utqiagvik to Kotzebue to
Marshall as a dome of temperatures near +10C has developed in the
Southeast Interior. Temperatures will continue to warm and the 0C
isotherm will be pushed northwest as the +10C isotherm pushes
expands over the Central and Eastern Interior Sunday, and by
Monday afternoon it will expand north over the Eastern Arctic
Plain and Eastern Brooks Range and extends south from Anaktuvuk
Pass over Ruby and south to the Western Alaska Range.

Surface...Weak low pressure over the southeast Interior and over
the West Coast with weak high pressure extending from the Arctic
southwest over Bristol Bay. A 1019 mb high is 200 nm north of
Deadhorse with a 1018 mb high 100 nm north of Point Lay. The
thermal trough lies from Northway to Fort Yukon with a second
branch lying from Northway to the Tanana Flats. A 1006 mb low has
moved into the Central Bering Sea near the Dateline. By Sunday
afternoon weak high pressure will move over most of mainland
Alaska extending north over the Arctic offshore waters to a 1019
mb high 100 nm north of Oliktok Point. The thermal trough will be
lie from Northway to Central to Arctic Village. The low in the
Central Bering Sea will move just west of St Lawrence Island
Sunday afternoon at 1001 mb and a weak front will move to the West
Coast.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A weather front associated with
a low moving slowing northeast across the Arctic has moved into
the western plains and Central Arctic Coast near Utqiagvik. The
low will continue to move northeast and the front will continue to
weaken as it slides slowly to the east over the coast. Cloudy
conditions will prevail with some isolated showers. Temperatures
warmer along the coast with highs possibly into the 40s by Sunday.
Inland temperatures much warmer with less clouds so the plains
will see highs around 60, and the Brooks Range will have highs in
the 50s Saturday and 60s Sunday. Areas of fog along the coast with
reduced visibility. Winds north to east at 5 to 15 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...A weather front moving to the
coast will bring some showers to the coastal areas. A low and
weather front will bring showers to the Lower Yukon Delta mainly
south of Kaltag, while a front associated with the low moving into
the Arctic will bring showers to the Chukchi Sea Region and the
Western Brooks Range. Inland areas around the Middle Yukon Valley
will see some clearing Saturday with increasing chances of
thunderstorms and showers Sunday. High temperatures will be
warming and by Sunday the coastal areas will see highs around 50,
while the inland areas will see highs around 70. Lows will
generally be in the 40s with some 30s in the Bering Strait. On St
Lawrence Island temperatures will be in the 30s. Winds northeast
to southeast in most locations at 5 to 15 mph.

Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy during the
afternoons and early evenings with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms and showers. Most thunderstorms will be south and
east of Fairbanks this evening, then some clearing overnight.
Isolated thunderstorms and showers spreading west and north on
Sunday. High temperatures in the 70s, except around 80 along the
AlCan Border. Overnight lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Winds
variable to 10 mph.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Warmer and drier with isolated
to scattered thunderstorms and showers in the afternoons and
evenings. Strong upper level ridge may dampen some of the
thunderstorm activity. Low stratus in the Arctic with areas of
fog, but a trough over the area lifting north into the Arctic
Tuesday evening will bring a short reprieve. Clearing skies on the
West Coast with improving conditions and warming temperatures.

&&

.Fire Weather...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity mainly
east of Fairbanks this evening and again Sunday and Monday
afternoon and evening. The thermal trough lies from Northway to
Fort Yukon and a second branch lies from Northway to the Tanana
Flats south of Fairbanks. A front moving to the West Coast will
bring showers to mainly the coastal areas. Temperatures will be
warming the remainder of the weekend and into the middle of next
week. Many locations will see their warmest temperatures so far
this year with some locations seeing lower 80s Monday through
Wednesday. Relative Humidity values in the 30s and 40s for most
areas with a few locations falling into the Upper 20s. Dryer next
week with the warmer temperatures. High temperatures will be in
the 60s to lower 70s today and Sunday. Overnight Relative
Humidity recovery will be good tonight, but becomes poor starting
Monday. Near Red Flag conditions Tuesday near the Alaska Range
Passes.

&&

.Hydrology...Yukon River in Canada continues to run near
bankfull, but the gage at Eagle continues to slowly fall, so no
issues at this time. We will be watching it closely as heavy
showers will be in the area through the weekend. Most interior
rivers are showing some diurnal rises and falls as snowmelt
continues at higher elevations, but they continue to run below
normal summer levels. Breakup continues in the Arctic with no
known issues. For the latest river information go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

SDB JUN 21