Small Craft Advisory 178, NWS Fairbanks, AK

547 
FZAK51 PAFG 310001
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-311430-
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1005 mb low 100 NM west of Point Hope will dissipate tonight. A
1000 mb low 100 NM west of Gambell will move to Nunivak Island
tonight. A strong low over the Western Gulf of Alaska will move to
100 NM north of Point Hope as a 982 mb low by 4pm Sun, and to 600
NM northwest of Point Hope as a 974 mb low bu 4pm Mon. 

$$

PKZ225-311430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...W winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-311430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SW winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-311430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building
to 6 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-311430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-311430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
401 PM AKDT Sat Oct 30 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

Oct 21

977 
FZAK51 PAFG 311215
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-010215-
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 989 mb low over Norton Sound this morning will move to Cape 
Lisburne this afternoon, moving to 200 NM NE of Wrangel Island and
deepening to 980 mb by Monday morning, continuing NW through 
Monday. 

$$

PKZ225-010215-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft. Freezing
fog. Snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...W winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-010215-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...SW winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-010215-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-010215-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-010215-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
415 AM AKDT Sun Oct 31 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
414 PM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic Cold front along the West Coast of Alaska with several
lows along it is causing snow showers and gusty winds along the
West Coast today that will taper off this evening as the lows move
north and weaken.

Significant weather changes are coming to all of Northern Alaska
this weekend as a strong storm in the Western Gulf of Alaska moves
north over Western Alaska Sat and Sun, and then over the Western
North Slope on Mon.

This storm will bring south winds to 80 mph to the Alaska Range
area this weekend, temperatures in the 30s and 40s to the Eastern
Interior, and south winds 40-50 mph to the Brooks Range Sat PM
along with temperatures in the 20s and 30s. This will bring heavy
snow to the Western Interior this weekend, with the 6-12 inches of
snow north and west of Kobuk to Galena to Anvik, while the area
southeast of Kobuk to Galena to Anvik will see 3-6 inches of snow
along with periods of rain and possible freezing rain. The West
Coast will see 3-8 inches east of Kivalina to Golovin.

This storm will bring high surf to the Chukchi Sea Coast from
Shishmaref to Point Hope Sun afternoon through Mon AM with
northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph. This storm will also bring high
surf to the Arctic Coast from Cape Lisburne to Utqiagvik from late
Sun night until late Mon night with southwest winds 25 to 35 mph.
There is the possibility of blizzard conditions with this storm
Sun night and Mon over the Coast from Kivalina to Point Barrow due
to these winds, but there is much uncertainty as to if snow and
if low visibility in blowing snow will occur.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, models verify well aloft. Models show just slight
differences aloft with strength and timing of short wave through
Sun night, but larger differences show up Sun night and Mon. The
NAM and ECMF show faster solutions Sun night and Mon, and are
preferred do the the strong south flow aloft, and strong dynamics
involved. 850 MB temps rise above freezing SE of Kobuk to Galena
to Anvik on Sat, and over the North Slope East of Utqiagvik Sun.
This will bring the chance of rain and freezing rain southeast SE
of Kobuk to Galena to Anvik on Sat into Sun, and E of Utqiagvik
Sun.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions through 12Z
Sat, then the NAM and ECMF are slightly faster than the GFS moving
precip north. By Sat night the GFS pushes the precip further NW
than the NAM and ECMF, and then on Sun the GFS linger the precip
over the West Coast while the NAM and ECMF starting moving the
precip back east. Favor a blend of the NAM and ECMF precip
locations and amounts to reflect the faster movement shown aloft
and at the surface by the NAM and ECMF. This will also affect the
change from snow to rain or freezing rain, and prefer the NAM and
ECMF with the occurrence of than as well.

At the surface as 15Z, models all verify 3-4 mb too weak on the
low north of Point Hope and the low near the Bering Strait. Expect
that to add a few kt to winds along the Chukchi Sea coast and from
Nome West this afternoon/evening. Will likely increase chance of
snow showers in those area this afternoon/early evening as well
until the lows move north and offshore. The strong low developing
in the Western Gulf of Alaska is now having very cold Arctic Air
fed into the west side of it and expect this will cause it to
deepen rapidly today and into tonight. Also, the track of the low
as it moves north Sat and Sun is along the Arctic front and
should continue to feed cold air into the system. For this reason
expect the feature moving north on Sat and Sun may be deeper than
models indicate. The NAM and ECMF move a deeper low north over
Western Alaska than the GFS on Sat night and Sun. The NAM has the
deepest low on Sun into Mon, and for this reason it is preferred
at this time as we expect the feature to be deeper than any models
show. Expect that winds over NW AK will be 3-5 kt stronger Sun
PM into Mon over NW Alaska as that low will likely be deeper than
even the NAM indicates.

Bottom line for models is that we will use a blend of the NAM and
ECMF for temps, precip location and amounts, and clouds, and use
the NAM for winds but increase winds above the NAM over NW AK this
evening and again Sun PM into Mon.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High surf along the Chukchi Sea Coast from Shishmaref to Point
Hope Sun afternoon through Mon AM with northwest winds of 20 to 30
mph.

High surf to the Arctic Coast from Cape Lisburne to Utqiagvik
from late Sun night until late Mon night with southwest winds 30
to 40 mph.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ209.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ216-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ227.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ217.

High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

JB OCT 21