Small Craft Advisory 175, NWS Fairbanks, AK

428 
FZAK52 PAFG 282314
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-291430-
314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1000 mb low near Point Hope will move to 100 NM north of Point 
Hope as a 1004 mb low by 4pm Fri, and to 400 NM northwest of Point
Hope as a 1010 mb low by 4pm Sat. A 1005 mb low 50 NM south of the
Bering Strait will move to the Bering Strait as a 1006 mb low by 
4pm Fri and then dissipate on Sat. A strong low will move north
along the West Coast of Alaska on Sun. 

$$

PKZ200-291430-
Norton Sound-
314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-291430-
Dall Point to Wales-
314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-291430-
Kotzebue Sound-
314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Snow showers. Freezing
fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Snow.
Freezing spray. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-291430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
350 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and cloudy pattern with periods of light snow will persist
over most of Northern Alaska through Friday. Along the West Coast
from Point Hope to St Lawrence Island expect snow squall type
snow showers through Fri with 2-4 inches of snow through Fri. Also
expect west winds 20 to 30 mph over the Southern Chukchi Sea
tonight through Friday which will cause elevated surf there.

A strong storm developing in the Western Gulf of Alaska on Friday
will move north over Western Alaska over the weekend. This will
cause a strong chinook over the Alaska Range and Eastern Interior
late Friday into Sunday and over the North Slope Saturday through
Sunday. Can expect south winds up to 70 mph near the Alaska Range
late Fri through late Sun, with south winds 40 to 50 mph over the
Brooks Range Sat into Sun. Expect southeast winds 15 to 30 mph
across the Southern Interior on Sat and Sat night. Temperatures
will warm into the 30s and lower 40s across the Eastern Interior
this weekend, and into the 20s and 30s over the Eastern North
Slope this weekend.

This storm is will bring snow to the Central and Western Interior
and Brooks Range Saturday into Sunday, with rain possible in the
Central Interior. Weather computer models differ significantly on
where and how much snow will fall, but at this time we can say
that areas north and west of Livengood have a possibility of heavy
snow from Saturday into Sunday.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of trough over Alaska and the
Bering Sea and a ridge over Western Canada. This pattern hold
through Fri, then retrogrades over the weekend with the ridge
over Eastern Alaska and trough over the Bering Sea as a strong
low in the Western Gulf of Alaska Fri into the weekend causes the
ridge to build. A series of short waves rotating around this
trough will cause periods light snow the next several days over
the Interior and North Slope. Strong south flow aloft developing
over the Eastern Interior Fri night will spread to the Eastern
Brooks Range persist into Sun. This will cause a strong chinook
over the Eastern Interior Sat into Sun and over the Eastern North
Slope Sat night through Sun night.

A vertically stacked cold core low over the Southern Chukchi Sea
will persist into Fri then lift north. This feature and the low
level cold air associated with it (850 mb temps of -12C or
colder) will cause lake affect type snow showers along the coast
from Point Hope to St Lawrence Island through Fri with 2-4 inches
of snow accumulation.

Surface...
A 1001 mb low 100 NM north of Barter Island will weaken tonight.
This will cause light offshore winds through tonight along the
Arctic Coast.

A 990 mb low 60 NM northwest of Point Hope will remain in place
and weaken to 1000 mb by Fri. This is causing S-W-NW winds of 20
to 30 mph over the southern Chukchi Sea coast tonight through
Friday which will cause elevated surf there. This is also causing
snow squall type snow showers through Fri with 2-4 along the West
Coast from Point Hope to St Lawrence Island.

A low in the southeast Bering Sea will move east into the Gulf of
Alaska by Thu. A strong low south of Shemya will move to south of
Dutch Harbor Thu, and into the Western Gulf of Alaska on Fri.
This feature will deepen through Sat and then move north
over Western Alaska over the weekend bringing heavy snow over the
Western Interior Sat into Sun. This will also cause a strong
chinook over the Alaska Range and Eastern Interior late Fri into
Sun, and over the Brooks Range on Sat and Sun. Still much
uncertainty as to where the heaviest snow will be and how much
will occur.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z models initialize well aloft. Models show similar pattern
aloft through 4pm Fri, then start to diverge significantly on
short wave location and strength on Sat.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions through Fri
with generally light precip over the Interior and North Slope
through Fri, and a showery pattern in the Chukchi Sea Coast and
Bering Strait to the YK Delta. All models showing significant
precip in the Central and Western Interior and North Slope
starting Sat. Models differ significantly on the location of
precip. We will use a blend of the GFS/NAM and ECMF for precip
through Fri, but bump of pops to likely for onshore flow areas
along the coast from Point Hope to St Lawrence Island through Fri
with 2-4 inches of snow accumulation expected. From Fri night into
Sat, there is so much difference in model precipitation location
that we will use the  for pops and QPF to reflect the
uncertainty.

At the surface at 18Z, models verify well on most features, but
all are 6 mb too weak with the low in the southern Chukchi Sea.
Models show similar solutions at the surface through Fri with
some differences showing up Fri night and Sat. Will use a blend of
the NAM/GFS and ECMF models for surface winds through Fri, then
go with superblend Fri night and Sat to reflect larger
differences. Will bump up winds 5 kts over Southern Chukshi Sea
now through Fri to reflect the southern Chukchi Sea low remaining
deeper than models indicate.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Elevated surf along the Chukchi Sea Coast at Point Hope, Kivalina
and Shishmaref today through Fri AM.
High surf possible along the West Coast from the YK Delta to Point
Hope Sun PM through Mon PM.
High surf possible along the Arctic Coast from Point Hope to
Utqiagvik Mon PM through Tue.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB OCT 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

AKZ206-290200-
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon,
and Franklin Bluffs
357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...Strong South Winds Over Brooks Range This Weekend...

Strong chinook are expected over the Brooks Range Saturday through
Sunday with south winds 40 to 50 mph expected along and just north
of the Brooks Range. Temperatures will warm into the 20s and 30s over
the Eastern North Slope this weekend.