Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 174, NWS Fairbanks, AK

October 27, 2021

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this small craft advisory at Oct 27, 2021, 2:25 AM AKDT. It was in force for 50 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 27, 2021, 2:25 AM AKDT (10:25 UTC)
Expired
Oct 29, 2021, 4:44 AM AKDT
In force
50 hr
Issued by
NWS Fairbanks, AK

The text

As transmitted.

368 
FZAK52 PAFG 271025
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
225 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-280215-
225 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 994 mb low approximately 80 nm W of Point Hope will move to 80 
nm SW of Point Hope as a 999 MB low by 4pm Thu then gradually 
weaken in place through Fri. A 991 mb low over Saint Matthew
Island will move to Nunivak Island Wed evening at 991 mb then
weaken in Bristol Bay thereafter.

$$

PKZ200-280215-
Norton Sound-
225 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-280215-
Dall Point to Wales-
225 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-280215-
Kotzebue Sound-
225 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-280215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
225 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt becoming NW. Seas 6 ft building to 8 ft.
Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Oct 21
4 follow-up statements
608 
FZAK52 PAFG 272314
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
314 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-281445-
314 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 990 mb low 60 NM northwest of Point Hope will remain in place 
and weaken to 1000 mb by Fri. A low in the southeast Bering Sea
will move east into the Gulf of Alaska by Thu. A strong low south
of Shemya will move to south of Dutch Harbor Thu, and into the
Western Gulf of Alaska on Fri. 

$$

PKZ200-281445-
Norton Sound-
314 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-281445-
Dall Point to Wales-
314 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-281445-
Kotzebue Sound-
314 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt becoming W. Snow showers. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Snow showers. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-281445-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
314 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

Oct 21
721 
FZAK52 PAFG 281157
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-290215-
357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1000 mb low near Point Hope will remain in place and weaken to 
1003 mb by Thu night. A low in the southeast Bering Sea will move
east into the Gulf of Alaska today. A strong low in the northern
Pacific will track east and move into the Western Gulf of Alaska 
on Fri.

$$

PKZ200-290215-
Norton Sound-
357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-290215-
Dall Point to Wales-
357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-290215-
Kotzebue Sound-
357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-290215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

Oct 21
428 
FZAK52 PAFG 282314
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-291430-
314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1000 mb low near Point Hope will move to 100 NM north of Point 
Hope as a 1004 mb low by 4pm Fri, and to 400 NM northwest of Point
Hope as a 1010 mb low by 4pm Sat. A 1005 mb low 50 NM south of the
Bering Strait will move to the Bering Strait as a 1006 mb low by 
4pm Fri and then dissipate on Sat. A strong low will move north
along the West Coast of Alaska on Sun. 

$$

PKZ200-291430-
Norton Sound-
314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-291430-
Dall Point to Wales-
314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-291430-
Kotzebue Sound-
314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Snow showers. Freezing
fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Snow.
Freezing spray. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-291430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Oct 21
710 
FZAK52 PAFG 291244
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
444 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-300215-
444 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1004 mb low 70 NM northwest of Point Lay will move to 100 NM 
northeast of Wrangel Island by Saturday morning and weaken to 1010
mb. A 1006 mb low over the Seward Peninsula will move north of 
Shishmaref by Saturday morning as 1007 mb low and weaken in place.
A strong low will move north along the West Coast of Alaska on 
Sunday.

$$

PKZ200-300215-
Norton Sound-
444 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-300215-
Dall Point to Wales-
444 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing rain.
Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-300215-
Kotzebue Sound-
444 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers and freezing rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-300215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
444 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 27, 1:26 AM AKDT, 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 27, 1:26 AM AKDT, 59 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
126 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A mix of fog, drizzle, and light snow is impacting the Eastern and
Central Interior as a series of weak disturbances passes over
widespread low level cloud cover. A gale force low remains over
the open waters of the Chukchi Sea west of Point Hope, bringing
continued periodic snow squalls and blustery west to northwest
winds. Temps cool the remainder of the week for the Interior. For
the weekend, a significant potential storm is looking like a
guarantee for the parts of the Western/Central Interior, but the
exact locations which will be impacted remains less certain. The
Eastern Interior looks to see a good chinook event during the same
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
The anchoring upper trough remains a closed upper low center
stacked on top of the surface low over the Chukchi Sea west of
Point Hope. The center is analyzed around 508 dam at 500 hpa. At
the base of this upper low is a mobile shortwave trough moving out
of the Gulf of Anadyr. ASCAT analyze this low at max gale force.
Over the Interior, several weak shortwave troughs, barely visible
on 500 hpa charts, are passing across the AK Range into the
Interior, bringing light snowfall with it as it seeds the
extensive and deep low stratus hanging over most of the Interior.
The cold occlusion diabatic low over the Chukchi Sea is
approximately 993 mb with near gale force winds on the western
periphery of the low.

Model Discussion...
The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement with the
general synoptic pattern. However, they continue to struggle with
the small details of this subtle pattern, with the challenges
revolving around the progression of the subtle waves of energy
shifting north through the Interior today and tomorrow. The
diabatic low out west is also creating model issues, although they
are in much better agreement than yesterday, and most now sustain
a closed low center just west of Point Hope through Thu night.
Models favored were a blend of the NAM and GFS, with a multi model
blend to depict the light snowfall over the Interior. After day 3,
a storm continues to look quite likely, and a blend of the
ECMWF/GFS was favored for that weekend storm.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Widespread fog, low stratus, drizzle, and light snow continues
over the Interior with a very weak south flow aloft, and a weak
pressure gradient in place, which is creating the current "soupy"
mess. RAOB soundings continue to depict a very saturated low level
environment, with deep stratus over 6000 feet on the 00z
Fairbanks sounding. The leading and stronger shortwave trough will
exit north of the Brooks Range tonight, which will bring a gradual
end to the light snowfall. However, given the weak pressure
gradient, there is a high likelihood that patchy areas of fog and
low stratus remain late into the week with slow gradual clearing.
With that in mind, expect some potential freezing drizzle to
persist, as well, through at least tonight.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The persistent low continues to spin around just off the coast of
Point Hope, bringing cyclonic winds around the low center, with
Point Hope currently blowing from the south around 25-30 mph. Cold
temps aloft continue to support oceanic induced snow showers over
most of the West Coast and Seward Peninsula, but they have
weakened for the time being as the associated low has mostly moved
away from the coast. A lobe from this low will move south today
and bring another round of northwest winds to the N Seward
Peninsula today, with more squalls and blustery winds. Some minor
elevated surf is also possible. The low finally weakens Thu and
moves far enough offshore to not be a nuisance anymore.

Farther south, a low crossing from Saint Matthew Island to Nunivak
Island will bring 20-30 mph easterly winds to the Yukon Delta
today and tonight before drifting southeast into Bristol Bay. Snow
showers will clip Scammon Bay, and that is about the northward extent.
In the Interior, low stratus and light snow showers will continue
to impact areas from Galena east and north today and tonight.
Another wave will bring light snow chances to the Interior Friday.

A significant storm is possible for the Interior this weekend. See
extended forecast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
As expected, partly clearing skies behind the front yesterday has
brought areas of locally dense fog to the North Slope, with the
most of the fog from Prudhoe Bay east. Light snow will move across
the Brooks Range and North Slope this afternoon and Thursday
morning before moving offshore. Expect more stratus and fog behind
this snow event after Thu.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The forecast after Friday looks dynamic and busy to say the least,
with the potential for a significant snowfall accumulations for
parts of the Western Interior (and possibly Central Interior) and
a very strong chinook wind event for the Eastern Interior north of
the Alaska Range, which would include a very strong Tanana Valley
Jet into the 50-60 mph range, and AK Range south gap winds into
the hurricane force gust range. In terms of snowfall, it is too
far out to nail down specific, but the possibility exists for
heavy snowfall from the Lower Yukon Valley north to the Western
and Central Brooks Range, and may include the Middle Kusko Valley
and Upper Koyukuk Valley. Lots of uncertainty with specifics, but
this storm looks pretty much a certainty at this point. The
weekend looks busy.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225.

&&

AHSENMACHER OCT 21

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 27, 1:26 AM AKDT, 59 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
126 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

AKZ207-280430-
Chukchi Sea Coast-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg
126 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...Elevated Surf Wednesday Into Thursday For the Northern Seward
Peninsula...

The northern Seward Peninsula, including Shishmaref, will have
elevated surf Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night in
conjunction with northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph. This will cause
elevated and rough surf. Objects along the beach should be
secured.

AKZ215>217-227-280430-
Lower Yukon Valley-Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik,
Flat, Galena, Nulato, Huslia, Kaltag, Ruby, Koyukuk, Ambler,
Shungnak, Kobuk, McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
126 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...Significant Winter Storm Increasingly Likely for the
Weekend...

A significant winter storm with the potential for heavy snowfall
in excess of 8 to 12 inches of snowfall is predicted to impact
parts of the Western Interior. The consensus location among the
latest forecast guidance is for a swatch of heavy snow across the
Lower Yukon/Middle Kuskokwim Valleys northward to the Western and
Central Brooks Range. At this juncture, the confidence in a storm
is high, but the details, including locations and snow amounts,
remain much less certain.

This storm is projected to be a long duration storm, beginning as
early as Saturday morning and lasting through Sunday. Stay tuned
for more details as this storm becomes better defined over the
next few days. Interested parties should plan for potential
hazardous weather conditions.

Stay tuned at www.weather.gov/fairbanks.

JRA
Special weather statement, Oct 27, 1:38 AM AKDT, 47 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
138 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

AKZ223-225-226-281400-
Deltana and Tanana Flats-Denali-Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely,
Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Healy,
Denali National Park, Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Mentasta Lake,
Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail,
and Mineral Lake
138 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021

...Strong Chinook Wind Event Increasingly Likely This Weekend...

A chinook wind event is increasingly likely for this weekend,
beginning early Saturday and lasting into Sunday. This will
include the possibility of winds gusts of 70+ mph in the Alaska
Range passes (Windy Pass along the Parks Highway and Isabel Pass
along the Richardson Highway). A strong easterly Tanana Valley Jet
of 50 to 60+ mph is also possible from Dot Lake through Delta
Junction, strongest around Delta Junction. This will also result
in a rapid rise in temps, with possible highs into the 40s for
this weekend.

Interested parties should plan for potential hazardous weather
conditions.

Stay tuned at www.weather.gov/fairbanks.

JRA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 27, 2:32 PM AKDTHigh Wind WatchAFG38 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.