Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021
Small Craft Advisory 174, NWS Fairbanks, AK
NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this small craft advisory at Oct 27, 2021, 2:25 AM AKDT. It was in force for 50 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 27, 2021, 2:25 AM AKDT (10:25 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 29, 2021, 4:44 AM AKDT
- In force
- 50 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Fairbanks, AK
The text
As transmitted.
368 FZAK52 PAFG 271025 CWFWCZ Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 225 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one- third of the combined wind-wave and swell height. PKZ299-280215- 225 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST... A 994 mb low approximately 80 nm W of Point Hope will move to 80 nm SW of Point Hope as a 999 MB low by 4pm Thu then gradually weaken in place through Fri. A 991 mb low over Saint Matthew Island will move to Nunivak Island Wed evening at 991 mb then weaken in Bristol Bay thereafter. $$ PKZ200-280215- Norton Sound- 225 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 .TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ210-280215- Dall Point to Wales- 225 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON... .TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. .THU...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ215-280215- Kotzebue Sound- 225 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 .TODAY...NE winds 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ220-280215- Wales to Cape Thompson- 225 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... .TODAY...S winds 25 kt becoming NW. Seas 6 ft building to 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ Oct 21
4 follow-up statements
608 FZAK52 PAFG 272314 CWFWCZ Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 314 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one- third of the combined wind-wave and swell height. PKZ299-281445- 314 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST... A 990 mb low 60 NM northwest of Point Hope will remain in place and weaken to 1000 mb by Fri. A low in the southeast Bering Sea will move east into the Gulf of Alaska by Thu. A strong low south of Shemya will move to south of Dutch Harbor Thu, and into the Western Gulf of Alaska on Fri. $$ PKZ200-281445- Norton Sound- 314 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 .TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. .THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. .THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ210-281445- Dall Point to Wales- 314 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 .TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers. Freezing fog. .THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. Freezing fog. .THU NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers. .FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers. .FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ215-281445- Kotzebue Sound- 314 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 .TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt becoming W. Snow showers. Seas 3 ft. .THU...W winds 15 kt. Snow showers. Seas 3 ft. .THU NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ220-281445- Wales to Cape Thompson- 314 PM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers. .THU...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers. .THU NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ Oct 21
721 FZAK52 PAFG 281157 CWFWCZ Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one- third of the combined wind-wave and swell height. PKZ299-290215- 357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST... A 1000 mb low near Point Hope will remain in place and weaken to 1003 mb by Thu night. A low in the southeast Bering Sea will move east into the Gulf of Alaska today. A strong low in the northern Pacific will track east and move into the Western Gulf of Alaska on Fri. $$ PKZ200-290215- Norton Sound- 357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021 .TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. .TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ210-290215- Dall Point to Wales- 357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021 .TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ215-290215- Kotzebue Sound- 357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... .TODAY...W winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. .SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ220-290215- Wales to Cape Thompson- 357 AM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... .TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ Oct 21
428 FZAK52 PAFG 282314 CWFWCZ Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021 Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one- third of the combined wind-wave and swell height. PKZ299-291430- 314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST... A 1000 mb low near Point Hope will move to 100 NM north of Point Hope as a 1004 mb low by 4pm Fri, and to 400 NM northwest of Point Hope as a 1010 mb low by 4pm Sat. A 1005 mb low 50 NM south of the Bering Strait will move to the Bering Strait as a 1006 mb low by 4pm Fri and then dissipate on Sat. A strong low will move north along the West Coast of Alaska on Sun. $$ PKZ200-291430- Norton Sound- 314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021 .TONIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. .FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. .SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ210-291430- Dall Point to Wales- 314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. .MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ215-291430- Kotzebue Sound- 314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021 .TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Snow showers. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. Freezing spray. .FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Freezing spray. .SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. .MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ220-291430- Wales to Cape Thompson- 314 PM AKDT Thu Oct 28 2021 ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. .FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. .SUN...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. .MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ Oct 21
710 FZAK52 PAFG 291244 CWFWCZ Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 444 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021 Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one- third of the combined wind-wave and swell height. PKZ299-300215- 444 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST... A 1004 mb low 70 NM northwest of Point Lay will move to 100 NM northeast of Wrangel Island by Saturday morning and weaken to 1010 mb. A 1006 mb low over the Seward Peninsula will move north of Shishmaref by Saturday morning as 1007 mb low and weaken in place. A strong low will move north along the West Coast of Alaska on Sunday. $$ PKZ200-300215- Norton Sound- 444 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021 .TODAY...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. .TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ210-300215- Dall Point to Wales- 444 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021 .TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. .SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing rain. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .SUN...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ215-300215- Kotzebue Sound- 444 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021 .TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. .TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. .SAT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. .SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers and freezing rain. .SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. .MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ220-300215- Wales to Cape Thompson- 444 AM AKDT Fri Oct 29 2021 .TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers. Freezing spray. .SUN NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. .MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ Oct 21
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 27, 1:26 AM AKDT, 59 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 27, 1:26 AM AKDT, 59 minutes before
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 126 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A mix of fog, drizzle, and light snow is impacting the Eastern and Central Interior as a series of weak disturbances passes over widespread low level cloud cover. A gale force low remains over the open waters of the Chukchi Sea west of Point Hope, bringing continued periodic snow squalls and blustery west to northwest winds. Temps cool the remainder of the week for the Interior. For the weekend, a significant potential storm is looking like a guarantee for the parts of the Western/Central Interior, but the exact locations which will be impacted remains less certain. The Eastern Interior looks to see a good chinook event during the same time. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... The anchoring upper trough remains a closed upper low center stacked on top of the surface low over the Chukchi Sea west of Point Hope. The center is analyzed around 508 dam at 500 hpa. At the base of this upper low is a mobile shortwave trough moving out of the Gulf of Anadyr. ASCAT analyze this low at max gale force. Over the Interior, several weak shortwave troughs, barely visible on 500 hpa charts, are passing across the AK Range into the Interior, bringing light snowfall with it as it seeds the extensive and deep low stratus hanging over most of the Interior. The cold occlusion diabatic low over the Chukchi Sea is approximately 993 mb with near gale force winds on the western periphery of the low. Model Discussion... The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement with the general synoptic pattern. However, they continue to struggle with the small details of this subtle pattern, with the challenges revolving around the progression of the subtle waves of energy shifting north through the Interior today and tomorrow. The diabatic low out west is also creating model issues, although they are in much better agreement than yesterday, and most now sustain a closed low center just west of Point Hope through Thu night. Models favored were a blend of the NAM and GFS, with a multi model blend to depict the light snowfall over the Interior. After day 3, a storm continues to look quite likely, and a blend of the ECMWF/GFS was favored for that weekend storm. Central and Eastern Interior... Widespread fog, low stratus, drizzle, and light snow continues over the Interior with a very weak south flow aloft, and a weak pressure gradient in place, which is creating the current "soupy" mess. RAOB soundings continue to depict a very saturated low level environment, with deep stratus over 6000 feet on the 00z Fairbanks sounding. The leading and stronger shortwave trough will exit north of the Brooks Range tonight, which will bring a gradual end to the light snowfall. However, given the weak pressure gradient, there is a high likelihood that patchy areas of fog and low stratus remain late into the week with slow gradual clearing. With that in mind, expect some potential freezing drizzle to persist, as well, through at least tonight. West Coast and Western Interior... The persistent low continues to spin around just off the coast of Point Hope, bringing cyclonic winds around the low center, with Point Hope currently blowing from the south around 25-30 mph. Cold temps aloft continue to support oceanic induced snow showers over most of the West Coast and Seward Peninsula, but they have weakened for the time being as the associated low has mostly moved away from the coast. A lobe from this low will move south today and bring another round of northwest winds to the N Seward Peninsula today, with more squalls and blustery winds. Some minor elevated surf is also possible. The low finally weakens Thu and moves far enough offshore to not be a nuisance anymore. Farther south, a low crossing from Saint Matthew Island to Nunivak Island will bring 20-30 mph easterly winds to the Yukon Delta today and tonight before drifting southeast into Bristol Bay. Snow showers will clip Scammon Bay, and that is about the northward extent. In the Interior, low stratus and light snow showers will continue to impact areas from Galena east and north today and tonight. Another wave will bring light snow chances to the Interior Friday. A significant storm is possible for the Interior this weekend. See extended forecast. North Slope and Brooks Range... As expected, partly clearing skies behind the front yesterday has brought areas of locally dense fog to the North Slope, with the most of the fog from Prudhoe Bay east. Light snow will move across the Brooks Range and North Slope this afternoon and Thursday morning before moving offshore. Expect more stratus and fog behind this snow event after Thu. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... The forecast after Friday looks dynamic and busy to say the least, with the potential for a significant snowfall accumulations for parts of the Western Interior (and possibly Central Interior) and a very strong chinook wind event for the Eastern Interior north of the Alaska Range, which would include a very strong Tanana Valley Jet into the 50-60 mph range, and AK Range south gap winds into the hurricane force gust range. In terms of snowfall, it is too far out to nail down specific, but the possibility exists for heavy snowfall from the Lower Yukon Valley north to the Western and Central Brooks Range, and may include the Middle Kusko Valley and Upper Koyukuk Valley. Lots of uncertainty with specifics, but this storm looks pretty much a certainty at this point. The weekend looks busy. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225. && AHSENMACHER OCT 21
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Oct 27, 1:26 AM AKDT, 59 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 126 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 AKZ207-280430- Chukchi Sea Coast- Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Espenberg 126 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 ...Elevated Surf Wednesday Into Thursday For the Northern Seward Peninsula... The northern Seward Peninsula, including Shishmaref, will have elevated surf Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night in conjunction with northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph. This will cause elevated and rough surf. Objects along the beach should be secured. AKZ215>217-227-280430- Lower Yukon Valley-Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys- Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-Upper Kuskokwim Valley- Including Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik, Flat, Galena, Nulato, Huslia, Kaltag, Ruby, Koyukuk, Ambler, Shungnak, Kobuk, McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake 126 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 ...Significant Winter Storm Increasingly Likely for the Weekend... A significant winter storm with the potential for heavy snowfall in excess of 8 to 12 inches of snowfall is predicted to impact parts of the Western Interior. The consensus location among the latest forecast guidance is for a swatch of heavy snow across the Lower Yukon/Middle Kuskokwim Valleys northward to the Western and Central Brooks Range. At this juncture, the confidence in a storm is high, but the details, including locations and snow amounts, remain much less certain. This storm is projected to be a long duration storm, beginning as early as Saturday morning and lasting through Sunday. Stay tuned for more details as this storm becomes better defined over the next few days. Interested parties should plan for potential hazardous weather conditions. Stay tuned at www.weather.gov/fairbanks. JRA
Special weather statement, Oct 27, 1:38 AM AKDT, 47 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 138 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 AKZ223-225-226-281400- Deltana and Tanana Flats-Denali-Eastern Alaska Range- Including Salcha, Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek, Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Healy, Denali National Park, Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake 138 AM AKDT Wed Oct 27 2021 ...Strong Chinook Wind Event Increasingly Likely This Weekend... A chinook wind event is increasingly likely for this weekend, beginning early Saturday and lasting into Sunday. This will include the possibility of winds gusts of 70+ mph in the Alaska Range passes (Windy Pass along the Parks Highway and Isabel Pass along the Richardson Highway). A strong easterly Tanana Valley Jet of 50 to 60+ mph is also possible from Dot Lake through Delta Junction, strongest around Delta Junction. This will also result in a rapid rise in temps, with possible highs into the 40s for this weekend. Interested parties should plan for potential hazardous weather conditions. Stay tuned at www.weather.gov/fairbanks. JRA
The office that day
Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2:32 PM AKDT | High Wind Watch | AFG | 38 hr |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.