Small Craft Advisory 169, NWS Fairbanks, AK

542 
FZAK52 PAFG 250945
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
145 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-260215-
145 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 985 mb low near Shishmaref will move N to Point Hope Mon 
evening at 987 mb then remain in place through Wed as it slowly 
weakens. A 992 mb low will move to Saint Matthew Island Tue
afternoon and then to Nunivak Island Wed morning at 990 mb.

$$

PKZ200-260215-
Norton Sound-
145 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-260215-
Dall Point to Wales-
145 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing 
spray. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-260215-
Kotzebue Sound-
145 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-260215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
145 AM AKDT Mon Oct 25 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

.TODAY...W winds 35 kt except SE winds 15 kt N of the Seward
Peninsula. Seas 9 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
154 PM AKDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Snow will fall in most of the forecast area with the
only location not seeing any significant snowfall being the inland
Lower Yukon Delta. Winds generally light and variable in the
inland areas, and 10 to 20 mph in the coastal areas. Temperatures
will be cooling through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Solutions are in generally good agreement through the
extended periods. The 24/12Z solutions have a decent handle on
position and strength of the major features. There are some
differences in the details since there is so much going on aloft
that they may be keying off the different minor features moving
through the flow. Will be using a blend for the short term to
maintain continuity, but will be upper the probabilities,
especially in the Arctic where they are generally too low.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing remains over the state as it
extends from a 501 dam low near the New Siberian Islands
southeast to a 913 dam low over the Chukotsk Peninsula to a 523
dam low over the Central Gulf of Alaska to a 508 dam low off the
coast of Washington. Weak ridging is pushing north over the
Alaska Peninsula into Bristol Bay, and weak ridging is pushing
west over the Central Brooks Range, then northwest to a 524 dam
high over the Western Arctic. A 516 dam low is over the Northern
Beaufort Sea moving north. Monday morning the troughing remains
with 501 dam low over the New Siberian Islands and troughing
extending southeast to a 508 dam closed low over Shishmaref.
Several lows around moving through the trough around to low over
Shishmaref with a 519 dam low over Fairbanks, a 519 dam low over
the Central Gulf of Alaska, and a 517 dam low over Sand Point.
Monday afternoon the low that was over Shishmaref will be over
the Western Chukchi Sea at 505 dam as it moves northwest, a 516
dam closed low will be over Coldfoot, a 515 dam low will be over
the Central Gulf of Alaska, and the low that was over Sand Point
will be 200 nm southeast of Sand Point at 515 dam. Weak ridging
will be pushing west into the Upper Tanana Valley, and over the
Eastern and Central Arctic. Tuesday morning the low will still be
over the Western Chukchi Sea at 505 dam with a sharp trough
extending southeast over Hooper Bay, and another extending east
over Deadhorse. The low will persist over the Gulf of Alaska,
while the low southeast of Sand Point will move to 400 nm south of
Cordova at 515 dam. Weak ridging will be pushing over the Eastern
Interior and across the Central and Eastern Arctic. At 850
hpa...Temperatures are in the 0C to -10C range, but the -10C
isotherm is being pulled around the upper level low and will move
over the Lower Yukon Delta tonight, and will continue to be pulled
around the low with a cooling trend through the week,and by
Wednesday afternoon it will lie from Prudhoe Bay to Fort Yukon to
Delta Junction then southeast with temperatures around -15C over
the West Coast.

Surface...Low pressure over most of mainland Alaska with a 985 mb
low over the Northern Beaufort Sea, a 991 mb low near Shishmaref,
a 996 mb low near Tanana, and low pressure extending southeast to
a 945 mb low off the coast of Washington. A 968 mb low is near
Adak as well. Weak high pressure is pushing west over the Eastern
Brooks Range, and into the Copper River Basin. Not much change
overnight as the low near Shishmaref drifts north a bit, the low
near Tanana moves to Bettles, the low near Adak moves to 200 nm
south of Sand Point at 976 mb, and the low in the Beaufort Sea
drifts north. High pressure will be pushing east into the
southwest mainland, while weak high pressure will continue to push
into the Copper River Basin and along the AlCan Border. Monday
afternoon low pressure will still dominate, but high pressure will
pushing east into the Interior from the Bering Sea. The low near
Shishmaref will be near Point Hope with a 990 mb low developing in
the Eastern Arctic Plain. Weak high pressure will be over the
Arctic. The low that was south of Sand Point will be 300 nm south
of Kodiak Island with low pressure extending north to Southcentral
Alaska and the Copper River Basin. Tuesday high pressure will
start to dominate as the low in the Chukchi Sea continues to drift
north, the low in the Eastern Arctic Plain moves over the
nearshore waters just north of Prudhoe Bay, and low pressure hangs
on south of the Alaska Range as the low moves east across the
Northeast Pacific toward the Queen Charlotte Islands. A front
moving around the Chukchi Sea low will move over the Northern
Bering Sea eventually swinging around to the coast Wednesday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy with increasing chance of
snow tonight and snow Monday with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation
expected. Winds variable through the evening will be swinging
around from the east and increasing to 10 to 20 mph, so expect
some blowing snow at times that will restrict visibility. Highs
generally in the 20s to lower 30s, with lows in the teens and 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Snow showers will continue with
low in the area. Heaviest snowfall on the Western Seward Peninsula
near the Bering Strait. Snowfall will generally be in the 1 to 4
inch range. Generally north winds on the Capes 15 to 30 mph from
the Bering Strait south, while the remainder of the Chukchi Sea
coast will have south winds from Deering to Buckland at 10 to 20
mph, and southeast to east winds north of Buckland at 10 to 20 mph.
From Teller south along the Norton Sound Coast and in the Lower
Yukon Delta winds southwest 10 to 20 mph. There remains potential
for slightly elevated surf around Shishmaref. High temperatures
in the 20s and lower 30s, while lows will be in the teens and
20s. Temperatures will be cooling through the week.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy with snow for most of the
area as a couple upper level systems come together. Heaviest snow
mainly to the west of Fairbanks, but impacting the Elliot Highway
with around 4 inches in Ptarmigan Pass so a Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect. The remainder of the area can expect up to
2 inches of accumulation by Tuesday afternoon. Winds generally
light and variable. Highs in the mid 20s to upper 30s, with lows
in the teens and 20s above. Temperatures will be cooling through
the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A upper level wave will bring
some snow to the Interior Thursday and Friday. Snow showers will
continue on the West Coast, and cloudy conditions will periods of
snow or flurries will continue in the Arctic. Temperatures will
be cooling.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ221.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

SDB OCT 21