Small Craft Advisory 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

354 
FZAK51 PAFG 082306
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-091415-
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A trough of low pressure near Demarcation Point will rapidly
weaken and lift north tonight. A second trough of low pressure
will form near Wainwright Wed night and form into a 1001 mb low
near Wrangel Island by Thu.

$$

PKZ225-091415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-091415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Freezing fog and
fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ235-091415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-091415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 5 kt. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-091415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
306 PM AKDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 5 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

Jun 21

970 
FZAK51 PAFG 091128
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
328 AM AKDT Wed Jun 9 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-100200-
328 AM AKDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure continues to push W over the Northern Arctic as a
trough of low pressure associated with a 1001 mb low in the
Chukchi Sea lifts N over the near shore waters today. Weak low
pressure will spread N to 77N with High pressure sliding into the
high Arctic. 

$$

PKZ225-100200-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
328 AM AKDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-100200-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
328 AM AKDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-100200-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
328 AM AKDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-100200-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
328 AM AKDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.TODAY...E winds 15 kt decreasing to 5 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog.
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-100200-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
328 AM AKDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 10 kt. Fog.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 5 kt. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 5 kt. Fog.
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

SDB Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
231 PM AKDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
At this point I might sound like a bit of a broken record, as a
cold upper level low remains stuck in position over the West
Coast. A weak upper ridge remains in place over the Eastern
Interior. Easterly flow at the surface persists over the North
Slope with gale force gusts at wide swaths of low sea stratus.
More thunderstorms and rain chances along the front today, as well
as over the higher terrain, with a change to cooler conditions for
much of the Interior through mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There remains a very anomalous 530 dam upper level closed low over
western Norton Sound this afternoon. A remnant weak upper ridge
persists over the Eastern Interior. A large and elongated 1026 mb
surface high persists over Banks island which is driving an
easterly flow pattern over the North Slope. A thermal trough of
low pressure is stationed over the Fortymile Uplands northwest to
Bettles. A cool occluded front is moving east from the Central
Interior and will intersect the thermal trough, creating a ripe
environment for thunderstorms through this evening.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Another day, more thunderstorms as convection has started early
again. Most of the convection is forming over the higher terrain
across the Interior, but more is also forming along the northwest
to southeast oriented frontal zone which is currently west of the
Minto Flats. The front will shift east tonight east through the
Tanana Valley and Fairbanks NSB, with chances for widely scattered
thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong. Heavy showers will be
concentrated, however, from the Minto Flats to Bettles. As the
front pushes east, it will drop temps quite a bit with highs
reaching 12-15 degrees cooler tomorrow over the Central and most
of the Eastern Interior. The front stalls over the western
Fortymile Uplands the next few days, with that area being the only
area with potential thunderstorms given the cooler weather to the
west. Expect gusty south winds through the AK Range and up to
Delta Junction the next couple days, especially in the late
afternoon periods into the evening.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Continued cool weather along the coast with more rain and snow
showers through tonight, then it will finally begin to warm up
slowly Tuesday and Wednesday as the stubborn upper level low
finally shifts northeast and kicks out over the Chukchi Sea.
Generally shower and cooler weather will persist everywhere with
no threats for thunderstorms through Thursday. Another low and
associated Bering front rolls in, this time with all rain,
sometime Thu night or Fri.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
East winds have become quite strong over the eastern half of the
Arctic coast where gusts are now into the mid range gale force
territory. These strong winds will persist through tonight then
begin to relax tomorrow as the front lifts offshore. Isolated
thunderstorms will once again occur over the Brooks Range,
stretching from Umiat to Arctic Village. An upper low which has
been sitting over the West Coast kicks out over the west Arctic
tonight through Thu, bringing the threat for mixed rain and snow
showers.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period forecast on Friday, there will be a
shortwave trough moving east across the North Bering Sea into the
West Coast with an area of broad south flow aloft over the
Interior. Models are all depicting a similar pattern as the upper
trough eventually shifts inland Friday afternoon through Saturday,
bringing rain to the coast and inland showers, with a chance for
thunderstorms over the far Eastern Interior. Thereafter, it looks
like ridging will gradually build in Sunday or Monday...possibly.
However, this forecaster will note the numerical models have been
notoriously awful as of late from day 5-7, so don't put too much
stock into that idea yet.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
More Interior thunderstorms today will continue into the early
evening before washing out along the front. This same front shifts
east and will stall over the Fortymile Uplands over the next
several days. Cooler and more moist conditions pretty much
everywhere as dry/warm takes a hiatus from most of the Mainland.
The lone exception will be the far eastern Fortymile Uplands near
the ALCAN where some remnants of the thermal trough will remain.
Also expect gusty southerly AK Range gap winds over the next few
days. Expect min Rh values to remain 30 percent or higher for the
next few days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No major hydro concerns with no significant rain over the next
several days.

Breakup continues in the Arctic with no issues at this time. For
the latest river information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

AHSENMACHER JUN 21