Small Craft Advisory 157, NWS Fairbanks, AK

541 
FZAK52 PAFG 151221
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-160200-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Low pressure in the area will slide E as high pressure in the 
Central Bering Sea moves into the Eastern Bering Sea and Chukotsk
Peninsula tonight. A 1009 mb low will develop over the Seward 
Peninsula tonight, then merge with a strong 973 mb low moving E 
across the Northern Bering Sea. A weather front associated with 
the low will move to the Lower Yukon Delta Sat morning as the low 
moves near St Matthew Island Sat evening. The low will move SE Sun
as high pressure moves over the Northeast Bering Sea and Bering 
Strait with a 1021 mb high on the Chukotsk Peninsula. 

$$

PKZ200-160200-
Norton Sound-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog and freezing
fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-160200-
Dall Point to Wales-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog and 
freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing fog and fog.
.SAT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-160200-
Kotzebue Sound-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

.TODAY...E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-160200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
421 AM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

SDB Oct 21

937 
FZAK52 PAFG 152323
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
323 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-161415-
323 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Low pressure in the area will weaken tonight. A 980 mb low in the
Western Bering Sea will strengthen to 968 mb as it moves east to 
near St Matthew Island by Saturday afternoon.

$$

PKZ200-161415-
Norton Sound-
323 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-161415-
Dall Point to Wales-
323 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog and
freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-161415-
Kotzebue Sound-
323 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-161415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
323 PM AKDT Fri Oct 15 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
152 AM AKDT Thu Oct 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Very little change in the ongoing weather pattern over Northern
Alaska through the rest of the week, the weekend and into early
next week. A broad low pressure system over the Southern Interior
combined with a broad upper level low centered over Northern
Alaska will keep much of Northern Alaska mostly cloudy with a
chance of flurries into Sunday with a clearing trend following
into early next week. Temperatures will remain seasonal through
the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...
The 00z models suite initialized well against the 11z surface
analysis as well as the upper air observations. The 00z model
suite also verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread remains minimal in the short range and the mid range.
Significant differences in synoptic scale features track and
strength become evident by the middle of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A low pressure system over McKenzie Bay will continue to weaken
and push west passing north of Kaktovik Friday afternoon. Expect
light snow and blowing snow along the Arctic Coast from Prudhoe
Bay east through Friday. Conditions will improve Friday as winds
and snow diminish.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A an Arctic cold front along the West Coast of Alaska will remain
in place through Fri and then move inland on Fri night. This will
continue to cause north winds of 15 to 25 kt along with snow
showers along north facing shores especially near the western
Capes and in the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island. Winds will
turn northwest and decrease Fri night and the front moves inland,
and snow showers will become scattered and spread into Kotzebue
and Norton Sounds. A strong storm will develop in the Western
Bering Sea on Friday that incorporate portions of a former
tropical storm. This storm will move to the Southeast Bering Sea
on Saturday, and into the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday. This will
bring east winds of 25-35 kt to the Northern Bering Sea on
Saturday, turning north Sat night and Sun. Since these winds are
offshore, they should not cause any problems other than possible
high surf on the north side of St Lawrence Island Saturday PM and
Sunday. Expect most of the snow with this storm to remain south of
the Yukon Delta.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Mostly cloudy skies with occasional flurries or sprinkles will
continue into Saturday and then diminish as skies become party
cloudy Sunday and Monday. Winds will remain light and temperatures
will remain seasonal with low temperatures dropping over the
weekend as skies clear over the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A strong storm will develop in the Western Bering Sea on Friday
that incorporate portions of a former tropical storm. This storm
will move to the Southeast Bering Sea on Saturday, and into the
Gulf of Alaska on Sunday. This will bring east winds of 25-35 kt
to the Northern Bering Sea on Saturday, turning north Sat night
and Sun. Since these winds are offshore, they should not cause any
problems other than possible high surf on the north side of St
Lawrence Island Saturday PM and Sunday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245-
PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC OCT 21