Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS Fairbanks, AK

357 
FZAK52 PAFG 052309
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 5 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-061415-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1004 mb low over Saint Lawrence Island will remain in place and
weaken through Sun night then move inland across Norton Sound Tue.

$$

PKZ200-061415-
Norton Sound-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog, rain.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-061415-
Dall Point to Wales-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft
subsiding. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-061415-
Kotzebue Sound-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 5 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt becoming E 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-061415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
309 PM AKDT Sat Jun 5 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM 
or less. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

641 
FZAK52 PAFG 061148
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
348 AM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-070200-
348 AM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Low pressure has moved over the West Coast as a 1005 mb low has 
moved near the Bering Strait and a weather front will move over 
the coast today. The low will slowly weaken today and merge with
low pressure over the Seward Peninsula by Mon evening.

$$

PKZ200-070200-
Norton Sound-
348 AM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-070200-
Dall Point to Wales-
348 AM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-070200-
Kotzebue Sound-
348 AM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.TODAY...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-070200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
348 AM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

SDB Jun 21

856 
FZAK52 PAFG 062131
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
131 PM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-071430-
131 PM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Low pressure has moved over the West Coast as a 1009 mb low has 
moved near the Bering Strait. The low will slowly weaken and 
merge with low pressure over the Seward Peninsula by Mon evening.

$$

PKZ200-071430-
Norton Sound-
131 PM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft subsiding. Fog.
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-071430-
Dall Point to Wales-
131 PM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-071430-
Kotzebue Sound-
131 PM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt becoming SW. 
.MON...W winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-071430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
131 PM AKDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog.
.MON...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Jun 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
225 PM AKDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Early summer weather is in place over the Interior with early
spring over the West Coast. Light snow is currently falling over
Nome while afternoon showers develop over the Interior with heavy
rain along the ALCAN border into the Eastern AK Range. Otherwise,
relatively seasonal weather conditions are in place elsewhere,
including the North Slope where fog and stratus dominate.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a cutoff migratory upper level low nearly directly over
Diomede Islands. This cold upper level center is bringing
anomalous cold weather to parts of the West Coast where snow is
currently falling over Nome. 850 hpa temps under this cold low
center were
-10.7C (as per the latest 12z RAOB) which is potentially the
 coldest ever in June. Over the Central/Eastern Interior is a
 weak ridge with a subtle wave disturbance along the ALCAN
 producing heavy rain showers over this area. Some showers with
 isolated embedded thunderstorms have formed over the hills around
 Fairbanks with more thunderstorms up by Arctic Village.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the next few
days will be possible, especially over the higher terrain Interior
mountains, as a weak interior ridge aloft allows for weak thermal
troughing. Heavy rain showers will drop another .25-.50" of
rainfall over the Tok Cutoff/Mentasta Pass area north to
Northway/Eagle before the heavy accumulating precip ends tomorrow
afternoon. Otherwise, temps and weather for most other locations
will be seasonal.

West Coast and Western
Cold is the name of the game on the West Coast today and most of
the weekend as a stubborn cutoff arctic low remains entrenched
over the region. Light snow is currently falling over Nome and
Kotzebue and many other locations around Norton Sound. More will
fall as moisture wraps around the base of the low tomorrow,
bringing potential light accumulations to much of northern Norton
Sound and parts of the Seward Peninsula. Beyond this, the most
areas will just see a miserable cold rain. Interior locations will
stay on the shower side of this system, with the best chances
today and Sat and again on Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Fog and stratus and increasing easterly winds by Sun night are the
main weather impacts for the next several days along the coast.
Isolated thunderstorm threats will be possible daily along the
Brooks Range mainly over the eastern portion. Isolated rain/snow
showers will cross over the far western Arctic in association with
a large upper low to the south.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning the extended period forecast on Monday afternoon, there
will be a persistent anomalous upper level cold low over the
Norton Sound area with a weak ridge over the far Eastern Interior.
Heavy rain showers will be possible across a wide swath of the
Interior given the steep lapse rates underneath that upper low,
as well as along the frontal zone. Any weak thermal trough over
the Eastern Interior will also support isolated thunderstorm
threats. This upper low now looks to pretty much remain in place
and slowly weaken instead of kicking out, so showers and cooler
weather will dominate much of the western half of the Mainland
through the week with pretty seasonal conditions farther east.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated Interior wet thunderstorms for the next several days
over the Central and Eastern Interior into the southern Brooks
Range. Expect min RH values to be in the 20s to 30s. Otherwise,
cool and wet over the western half of the Interior to the West
Coast where there will be snow threats (along the coast).
Otherwise, no significant fire weather concerns for the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Southeast Interior rivers across Fortymile and the far Eastern AK
Range will see sharp rises with the continuing showers, bringing
1.00 to 1.50 inches of rain total by Sat afternoon (including
what has already fallen) expected along the Alaska Range east of
Dot Lake. Some local small streams and rivers draining the Alaska
Range east of Dot Lake may see near bankfull conditions, but no
significant issues are anticipated.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

AHSENMACHER JUN 21