Small Craft Advisory 143, NWS Fairbanks, AK

111 
FZAK51 PAFG 022324
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
324 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-031415-
324 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 998 mb low in MacKenzie Bay will move to near Deadhorse as a 
1008 mb low by 4am Sun, then to near Utqiagvik as a 1018 MB low by
4am Mon, then slowly weaken. A strong low developing in the 
western Bering Sea on Sunday will move to 200 NM southwest of Cape
Navarin as a 970 mb low by 4pm Mon, and 100 NM west of Gambell as
a 978 mb low by 4pm Tue. 

$$

PKZ225-031415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
324 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-031415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
324 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-031415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
324 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Freezing fog.
Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-031415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
324 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Freezing fog.
Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-031415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
324 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
136 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm is pushing into the Interior, as a two "pronged"
event, with the first front pushing into the Tanana Valley. Winter
storm warnings and winter weather advisories remain in effect.
Snow is also falling over the North Slope, and this will continue
and become heavier through the weekend, with active winter storm
warnings from Prudhoe Bay east, which will impact the Dalton
Highway.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A huge upper low encompasses the entire Mainland, Bering Sea, and
Gulf of Alaska with the upper low center around the Western
Interior. A powerful low is forming at the base of this trough
over the North Pacific, moving northeast into the Gulf of Alaska.
A secondary upper shortwave trough is tracking along the ALCAN
into the Fortymile, spreading a band of snow into the Tanana
Valley and White Mountains. A weakening low center is also over
the Gulf of Alaska.

Model Discussion...
Models are now in very good agreement with the overall winter
storm expected for the Interior. No changes will be made to the
forecast or winter products we have already issued.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Snow is on track as band one of snowfall from a deformation zone
aloft is moving west, with snow already falling in the Fairbanks
area. This will continue to shift west, stalling over the Minto
Flats. Still expecting 1-3 inches of snow with this first shot. A
brief break is expected with the next storm moving in tonight
across the Fortymile and E AK Range, the Eastern interior Sat
morning. This will bring more widespread and extensive snowfall
and will continue through Sunday before tapering off Sunday night.
No changes in forecast with this package, and we are still
expecting widespread 6-12 inches along most of the Taylor, Alaska,
and Richardson Highways, with 2-6 inches north across the Steese
and into Fairbanks. In addition to snow, the southern half of
Isabel Pass along the Richardson in the AK Range will see gusts
into the 40 mph, so there will be some local blowing and drifting
snowfall through Sunday morning.

Snow ends by Sunday night with high pressure for Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Strong gale force north winds will continue down the Bering
Strait, with ocean effect snow showers across the Yukon Delta and
Capes along the coast, as well as Norton Sound, through Sunday
before tapering off. Expect periodic blowing snow and reduced
visibility in snow squalls.

Attention turns to a warm front which will move into the West
Coast Sunday night through Monday, bringing a rain/snow mix before
turning to all rain as freezing levels push above 3000 feet.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Winter Storm Warnings for the Eastern area as snow develops and
becomes heavy at times with accumulations of 4 to 10 additional inches.
Remainder of the are will remain mostly cloudy with some light
snow or flurries with accumulations less than 3 inches. Northeast
to east winds will persist at 15 to 30 mph with areas of blowing
snow east of Utqiagvik reducing visibility to one mile or less.
Most snow will begin to taper off Sunday night with high pressure
building Monday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Looks warmer as a remnant tropical storm moves into the West Coast
Monday and Tuesday and moves inland, bringing rising snow levels
and a change to rain for many locations. A mix of rain and snow
for the Interior as several waves of energy move inland through
the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ223-AKZ224-
AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ500-PKZ505.

&&

AHSENMACHER OCT 21