Small Craft Advisory 140, NWS Fairbanks, AK

816 
FZAK52 PAFG 011251
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
451 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-020200-
451 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Low pressure over mainland Alaska will slowly move E as a ridge of
high pressure over the Western Bering Sea and Siberia moves to the
Dateline this afternoon, and to lie along 170W by Sat evening 
with a 1022 mb high near the Bering Strait. 

$$

PKZ200-020200-
Norton Sound-
451 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-020200-
Dall Point to Wales-
451 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-020200-
Kotzebue Sound-
451 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-020200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
451 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

SDB Oct 21

600 
FZAK52 PAFG 012135
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
135 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-021415-
135 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Strong low pressure will persist over the Gulf of AK while a high
pressure ridge persists over Wrangell Island through Sat night. A
front will move into the N Bering Sea on Sun and Mon.

$$

PKZ200-021415-
Norton Sound-
135 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-021415-
Dall Point to Wales-
135 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-021415-
Kotzebue Sound-
135 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-021415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
135 PM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

132 
FZAK52 PAFG 021219
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
419 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-030200-
419 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A ridge of high pressure that extends from a 1035 mb high near
Adak to a 1025 mb high over the Chukotsk Peninsula to a 1025 mb
high north of Wrangel Island will slowly slide E. The ridge will
lie along 170W late this evening and will move over the West Coast
Sun morning and inland by Sun afternoon. A strong 963 mb low will
move into the Western Bering Sea Sun and across the Northern
Bering Sea to St Lawrence Island by Tue. 

$$

PKZ200-030200-
Norton Sound-
419 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers with snow
showers. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-030200-
Dall Point to Wales-
419 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-030200-
Kotzebue Sound-
419 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding.
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-030200-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
419 AM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

SDB Oct 21

146 
FZAK52 PAFG 022326
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
326 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-031415-
326 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong low in the Gulf of Alaska will weaken through Sun. 
A strong low developing in the western Bering Sea on Sunday will 
move to 200 NM southwest of Cape Navarin as a 970 mb low by 4pm 
Mon, and 100 NM west of Gambell as a 978 mb low by 4pm Tue. 

$$

PKZ200-031415-
Norton Sound-
326 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers with snow
showers. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-031415-
Dall Point to Wales-
326 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-031415-
Kotzebue Sound-
326 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-031415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
326 PM AKDT Sat Oct 2 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Oct 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
138 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter is starting early for the Interior as another winter storm
is primed to move across the Alaska Range and north into the
Eastern and Central Interior, beginning Friday and continuing
through the weekend. Significant snowfall will likely fall from
the Alaska Range north through the Interior, and across the Brooks
Range to the eastern North Slope. Out west, strong north winds
and snow showers will impact the coastal areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a powerful low center over the western Bering Sea diving
south toward the Aleutian Chain. A triple point low is forming
along the eastern edge of the larger trough, and this is moving
into the Gulf of Alaska this morning. A weak shortwave trough is
crossing the AK Range with light snow across the Eastern AK Range
and into the Fortymile highlands. The arctic trough is firmly
planted over the Mainland, with an onshore gradient favoring light
snow showers currently over the North Slope.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models are in very good agreement with the large
scale pattern, but in less agreement with the smaller scale
details as two waves of energy lift northwest into the Interior
from the Gulf of Alaska. The issue of concern is the discrepancy
of the leading triple point low moving into the Eastern Interior
tomorrow, and just how far west it retrogrades. This in turn
impacts the next low and how far west it moves on Saturday and
Sunday. The NAM and ECMWf and Canadian models are all in good
agreement bringing a band of snow to the Eastern Interior
including the Tanana Valley and Alaska Range, while the GFS splits
the trough in two, sending energy much farther east, which brings
in 1/4 the amount of snowfall through the weekend. This forecast
is tossing that solution out, thus going with much more snowfall
for the Interior through 72 hours.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Snow is expected to return, the first round coming tomorrow midday
and into the evening a leading front from the Bering Sea shifts
inland. Snow will cross the Eastern AK Range tonight, then move
into the Tanana Valley, Yukon Flats, and Minto Flats by the
afternoon. There remains some discrepancy with this front and just
how fast it rotates through, but the general thinking is there
will be a good burst of snow as it moves through, which would be
around midday into the evening for much of the lower and middle
Tanana Valley. Expect 1-3" with this system.

Attention turns to another low moving into the Interior, this time
from the Yukon, which will bring a round two of snow, but over a
much broader area and for a longer duration, beginning Friday
night and persisting into Sunday. Expecting heavy snow for the
Eastern Ak Range and Fortymile, with moderate snowfall into the
Tanana Valley and west, with upwards of 8-10" possible across parts
of the Taylor, AK Highway, and Richardson Highway. This storm
through Sunday looks to bring a more widespread snowfall than the
previous, with locally heavier snowfall than the last early season
storm.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Quiet weather for the most part, with some inland stratus and
patchy fog through today. Thereafter, the flow becomes strongly
out of the north over the coast, bringing gale force wind gusts
into the Yukon Delta, Saint Lawrence, and most of the Seward
Peninsula. Expect snow squalls/showers to be very active across
the Yukon Delta and Saint Lawrence, as well as over the Bering
Coast. North winds will gradually slacken Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Active weather pattern as more snow is on the way. The first wave
of accumulating snow will move over the eastern Arctic Coast
tonight, with heavier snow spreading west to Umiat and Barrow
Saturday. Expecting potential accumulations of 6-9" of snow over
the eastern Arctic, which will include the Dalton Highway. Expect
some areas of blowing snow over the eastern Arctic where northeast
winds will increase into the 20-30 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...There is increasing threat
that a west coast low will bring some elevated waters to Norton
Sound and the Yukon Delta Tue and Wed. Strength, track, and
impacts are harder to call. For now, the threat is noted, but the
impacts do not look significant at this time as the storm is not
overly strong. Stay tuned.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ222-AKZ225.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ500-PKZ505.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

AHSENMACHER SEP 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
216 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

AKZ220-221-011615-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Including Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, Stevens Village,
Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, Circle Hot Springs,
Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto,
Manley Hot Springs, Rampart, Lake Minchumina, and Livengood
216 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...Accumulating Snow Friday and Saturday...

Snow is expected to begin falling midday on Friday and last
through Sunday morning. Snow accumulation is not expected west of
Tanana. Total accumulations are expected to range from 1 to 3
inches for Minto, Livengood and Lake Minchumina. Up to 8 inches
of snow is possible near Eagle Summit and the surrounding areas of
the White Mountains, and from Nenana south along the Parks
Highway. While high amounts are possible in these areas, forecast
uncertainty remains very high due to the early season nature of
this event.

Travel through these areas may be difficult and travelers should
be prepared for winter driving conditions.

For the latest weather forecasts go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks.