Small Craft Advisory 135, NWS Fairbanks, AK

977 
FZAK52 PAFG 232224
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
224 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-241415-
224 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1005 low east of near Gambell will continue to move south and 
east as a 1000 low between St Matthew and St Paul Island on 
Saturday. 

$$

PKZ200-241415-
Norton Sound-
224 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-241415-
Dall Point to Wales-
224 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 5 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-241415-
Kotzebue Sound-
224 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-241415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
224 PM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

240 
FZAK52 PAFG 241408
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
608 AM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-250230-
608 AM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 999 mb low 100 NM west of Gambell will move to near St Matthew
Island as a 1003 mb low by 4am Sat, and then to the Seward
Peninsula as a 1009 mb low by 4am Sun. 

$$

PKZ200-250230-
Norton Sound-
608 AM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt becoming S. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-250230-
Dall Point to Wales-
608 AM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog. Rain. Snow.
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog. Snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-250230-
Kotzebue Sound-
608 AM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-250230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
608 AM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

447 
FZAK52 PAFG 242302
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-251430-
302 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A weak low in the Northern 
Bering Sea will remain in place through tonight, then move along 
the West Coast Sat, and then move into the Western Interior Sat 
night and Sun.

$$

PKZ200-251430-
Norton Sound-
302 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-251430-
Dall Point to Wales-
302 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-251430-
Kotzebue Sound-
302 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-251430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
302 PM AKDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

229 
FZAK52 PAFG 251259
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
459 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-260215-
459 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1000 mb low in the Bering Strait will move to near Kotzebue as 
a 1006 mb low by 4am Sun and to 100 NM south of Utqiagvik as a 
1011 mb low by 4am Mon. A second 1000 mb low near St Matthew 
Island will weaken in place to 1004 mb by 4pm Sat, then move to 
Western Norton Sound as a 1004 mb by 4am Sun, to Eastern Norton 
Sound as a 1004 mb low by 4pm Sun, and then move inland Sun night.

$$

PKZ200-260215-
Norton Sound-
459 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain.
.SUN...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-260215-
Dall Point to Wales-
459 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt becoming N 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Snow. Rain. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-260215-
Kotzebue Sound-
459 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain. Snow. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-260215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
459 AM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Fog. Rain. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog. Rain. Snow.
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

882 
FZAK52 PAFG 252244
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
244 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-261500-
244 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1004 mb low near St Matthew Island will continue to weaken and
move into Norton Sound Sunday morning and inland Sunday night.

$$

PKZ200-261500-
Norton Sound-
244 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-261500-
Dall Point to Wales-
244 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...N winds 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-261500-
Kotzebue Sound-
244 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-261500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
244 PM AKDT Sat Sep 25 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Snowfall with the fist winter storm of the season is tapering off
across the Southeastern Interior. There will be a brief respite
before another system moves into the southeast Interior Thursday
night into Friday bringing additional snowfall. A weather system
has the potential to bring precipitation to the Seward Peninsula
Friday night into Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 22/00 UTC models generally initialized well when compared to
observational data. While the models generally have the same idea
with the synoptic scale pattern there are some differences in the
placement of the precipitation over in the short term. For the
system that will move into the southeastern Interior Thursday
night and Friday, the NAM really keeps the precipitation out of
the Fairbanks area while the GFS and the ECMWF bring some snow
into Fairbanks. The models also differ on the potential for a
system that will affect the Seward Peninsula Friday night into
the Saturday. The GFS and NAM both bring in precipitation while
the ECMWF is different, keeping precipitation out over the ocean.
We really did not change much with the precipitation forecast
today as we thought the inherited grids did a good job
representing things.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 531 dam low is currently situated over the
lower Yukon Valley, with a trough extending from the low north
into the Beaufort Sea. The trough will dig south tonight merging
with another low moving north through the north Pacific. The
combined low will move into the northern Gulf of Alaska on
Thursday, with the trough pushing inland on Friday. A trough looks
to push into the northwest Arctic Friday night into Saturday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Snowfall is tapering off across the southeastern Interior this
afternoon after a decent early season snowfall. A handful of
stations reported over 7 inches of total snowfall for this event.
There will be a brief respite before the next system moves into
the southeastern Interior Thursday afternoon into Friday. This
system has the potential to bring 2 to 4 inches of snow to the
parts of the Eastern Interior, with the potential for up to 7
inches in Alaska Range. There is still a lot of model variability
with this system at the moment, resulting in lower confidence in
our overall snowfall forecast to include amounts and timing.
Chances for snow will diminish on early Saturday as the low moves
away. There is also the potential for breezy northerly winds with
this system as well.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
High pressure will continue to build over the area tonight
resulting in winds diminishing and any lingering snow showers
tapering off. With cooler arctic air in place expect increasing
fog and stratus to develop heading toward the weekend. Chances for
snow will increase Friday night and early Saturday as a system
approaches from the south, especially over the eastern half of the
area.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Snow showers will persist over the northern Bering Sea and
Eastern Norton Sound/Yukon Delta into Thursday, mainly along the
coast. Dry northeast winds will kick in over the area which will
promote a dry period for most of the region. The next low of
interest will only impact Saint Lawrence Island with rain or
possibly a rain/snow mix Friday. There is some potential for this
system to bring precipitation to the Seward Peninsula Friday night
into Saturday; however, at the moment there is still model
disagreement.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The models look to show a cooler trend that will persist through
much of the extended period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at the moment.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245.
&&

SEP 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
521 AM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

AKZ220>222-240100-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, Stevens Village,
Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, Circle Hot Springs,
Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto,
Manley Hot Springs, Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood,
Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole,
Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs,
and Sourdough Camp
521 AM AKDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...Significant Snow Late Tonight Through Saturday Morning...

Snow is expected to develop after midnight tonight over the
Steese, Elliott and Parks Highways, including the Fairbanks,
North Pole and Eielson areas. The heaviest snow will occur from
4am Friday until 4am Saturday. Between 2 and 4 inches of snow are
expected by the time the snow tapers off Saturday morning. East
winds gusting to 30 mph will cause low visibility in blowing snow
over summits of the Steese and Elliot Highways.

In the Fairbanks, North Pole and Eielson areas, light snow is
expected to develop after midnight tonight, with snow picking up
after 4am Friday. By the time the snow tapers off Saturday
morning, between 2 and 3 inches of snow are expected in the
Fairbanks and North Pole areas, while Eielson is expected to have
4 inches of snow.

JB