Small Craft Advisory 134, NWS Fairbanks, AK

455 
FZAK52 PAFG 221134
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
334 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-230215-
334 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A low will continue moving south into Bristol Bay from the
Kuskokwim Delta through Thu. A front will move into the N Bering
Sea Thu and Fri.

$$

PKZ200-230215-
Norton Sound-
334 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-230215-
Dall Point to Wales-
334 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-230215-
Kotzebue Sound-
334 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ220-230215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
334 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
511 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter is here as an arctic front has crossed the entire Mainland,
and accumulating snow is impacting the Eastern Interior from Delta
Junction to Eagle, and down south to Isabel Pass. Snow squalls
continue over the North Slope and NW Arctic. A compact but strong
low will bring possible accumulating snow to parts of the Yukon
Delta and Nulato Hills today and tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A 509 dam 500 hpa arctic low is anchoring the flow pattern over
the Arctic. The center has drifted northeast since yesterday,
which is now a few hundred miles north of Prudhoe Bay. A trough
axis extends south to the Arctic Coast, now approximately over
Point Thompson. There is a strong closed low over the North Gulf
Coast with a larger arctic longwave trough extending all the way
down to Kachemak Bay. South flow is feeding into a deformation
zone over the Eastern Interior, bringing accumulating snow.
Offshore pressure gradient is supporting gusty north to northwest
winds through the AK Range and down from Eagle to Northway.

Model Discussion...
Models are in excellent synoptic agreement. They remain in poor
agreement with a closed and compact low moving into the Yukon
Delta today and tonight from the North Bering Sea. The Canadian
remains the strongest and slowest, the GFS is farther south, and
the ECMWF is much farther north. This makes a huge difference for
sensible weather, as the ECMWF would be pretty much mostly rain
over the Yukon Delta while the GFS and Canadian would support
heavy snow. The current forecast will keep a middle ground
solution with the potential for accumulating snow, ignoring the
farther extreme solutions like the ECMWF and GFS, for now, and
splitting the difference.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Snow continues over the Eastern Interior with gusty northwest
winds. Forecast remains on track with snow continuing over the
Alaska Range and Delta Junction northeast to Eagle, with an
additional 3-7" likely, heaviest toward the ALCAN and in Isabel
Pass. The low shifts north from the Gulf this evening, so snow
will actually increase briefly in intensity near the ALCAN, as
well as local blowing snow with increasing northwest winds,
especially down in the blowhole of Isabel Pass and toward
Northway. The low exits to the northeast Wednesday morning.
Elsewhere, dry and cooler with gradual clearing tomorrow and
Wednesday as the low shifts east. Another low in the Gulf will
bring more potential snow and mixed/rain snow to the Interior
Thursday night and Friday, but much uncertainty exists with this
system.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Northwest winds weaken today and turn more northerly along the
coast, bringing an end to most of the stronger snow squalls across
Kotzebue Sound. Attention turns to a quickly developing low
currently moving over Saint Lawrence Island and moving east toward
the Yukon Delta. This compact low will move onto the coast this
afternoon and inland through this evening, bringing mostly rain
but some possible heavy snow along the north end of the front,
which currently looks to be over Kotlik and Emmonak. However,
there is a lot of uncertainty even this close, with the general
thinking there will be heavy snow along a very narrow corridor,
but rain elsewhere with some mixed snow. Even the corridor of snow
will likely be very wet snow, so accumulations will be less than
otherwise with ratios around 6 to maybe 8 to 1. For now expecting
a narrow corridor of 4-5" of snow from Emmonak to Kotlik and down
to Marshall and Russian Mission. This low exits into the Bristol
Bay area Wednesday morning, with blustery 30 mph north winds
behind it lasting into Thursday across the Delta.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A surface low just north of Prudhoe Bay will keep a tight gradient
in place with strong west winds along shore. Elevated rough surf
will continue from Point Barrow west through today before
diminishing as winds weaken dramatically. Snow squalls will end
with the stronger northwest winds by tonight, but there will still
be periodic light snow showers along the coast. Weak high
pressure and lighter winds will allow for a slight cooling of
temps heading later into the week.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A low in the Gulf and a weak arctic high over the Mainland will
support more shots for snow for the Interior, Friday through the
weekend, mixed with rain at times near the AK Range and ALCAN.
There is a huge amount of uncertainty at this juncture though as
the overall low in the GUlf scenario is not well handled by the
global models. Either way, without a strong arctic trough in
place, there will not be "heavy snow" like the current winter
storm scenario now, but it bears watching. Thereafter, the arctic
high remains and it looks to remain on the colder side over the
Mainland.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ215.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

AHSENMACHER SEP 21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
942 AM AKDT TUE SEP 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     HEAVY SNOW       40 NW TOK               63.71N 143.96W
09/21/2021  M1.5 INCH        SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKSAK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ROBERTSON RIVER STORM TOTAL 1.5 INCHES.

&&