Small Craft Advisory 133, NWS Fairbanks, AK

479 
FZAK52 PAFG 211149
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-220215-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1012 mb low over Saint Lawrence Island this morning will move 
to the YK Delta at 1007 mb this afternoon, then move south into 
Bristol Bay by Wed.

$$

PKZ200-220215-
Norton Sound-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 10 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-220215-
Dall Point to Wales-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt N of Saint Lawrence Island. SW winds 25 kt
S of Saint Lawrence Island becoming N 30 kt in the late afternoon.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-220215-
Kotzebue Sound-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog and fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-220215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
349 AM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

810 
FZAK52 PAFG 212321
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
321 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-221415-
321 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1009 mb low near Scammon Bay will move inland tonight and push 
south into Bristol Bay on Wed. High pressure will build into the
northern Bering Sea on Wed. 

$$

PKZ200-221415-
Norton Sound-
321 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-221415-
Dall Point to Wales-
321 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-221415-
Kotzebue Sound-
321 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-221415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
321 PM AKDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

455 
FZAK52 PAFG 221134
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
334 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-230215-
334 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A low will continue moving south into Bristol Bay from the
Kuskokwim Delta through Thu. A front will move into the N Bering
Sea Thu and Fri.

$$

PKZ200-230215-
Norton Sound-
334 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-230215-
Dall Point to Wales-
334 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-230215-
Kotzebue Sound-
334 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog and freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.  

$$

PKZ220-230215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
334 AM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

417 
FZAK52 PAFG 222325
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
325 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-231430-
325 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Brief high pressure of 1021 mb in the Bering Sea through Thu
morning. A 1007 mb low will develop in the Gulf of Anadyr Thu 
afternoon. A front will move into the N Bering Sea Thu and Fri.

$$

PKZ200-231430-
Norton Sound-
325 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-231430-
Dall Point to Wales-
325 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-231430-
Kotzebue Sound-
325 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Fog and freezing
fog. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-231430-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
325 PM AKDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
207 PM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The first significant snowfall of the season over the Eastern
Interior is underway. Fairbanks received measurable snow this
morning with a few tenths around town. Heavier snow is occurring
from Eielson AFB east and along the Alaska Range. This heavy snow
will spread to the Alcan border by this evening. Winter Storm
Warnings and Advisories remain in effect for the Interior from
Denali east to the Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile region.
Snow squalls will continue over the North Slope and NW Arctic
coast. A front approaching southwest Alaska will bring a chance
for significant snow to the lower Yukon Valley on Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
All models initialized well and are in general agreement with the
main synoptic features for the next few days. An upper level low
over the Arctic Coast has come into phase with a 2nd upper in the
Gulf of Alaska, resulting in a longwave trough that persists over
mainland Alaska the next couple of days. The combination of
moisture being pumped northward into the Eastern Interior and
unseasonably cold air spilling south from the Arctic is bringing
widespread snowfall over that area into Tuesday night. The trend
is for this to end by Wednesday. Further north, vigorous cold,
onshore flow over the open water continues to produce heavy snow
showers along the North Slope and Arctic Coast. As the main upper
low drifts northeast into Wednesday the onshore flow will
gradually diminish. The last remaining feature of interest a
tightly wound up low that skirts along the Arctic frontal
boundary in the Bering Sea. This low moves southeast past St.
Lawrence Island late tonight, then into the Yukon Delta Tuesday
afternoon. Models are coming into line with with track of the low
and possibility for a narrow footprint of heavy snow in the Lower
Yukon Valley.

Central and Eastern Interior...
The highest impact weather the next couple days will be from the
Delta Junction area eastward with snowfall. We did not make any
changes to the ongoing Winter Storm Warnings. For the Eastern AK
Range, AK highway, and Taylor Hwy corridors for 4-8" of snow, with
higher amounts in Isabel Pass along the Richardson to 6-11".
Strong north winds to 50 mph are also expected along the southern
corridor of Isabel Pass, but snow will also be somewhat lighter
there, so there will be some blowing snow, but not expecting major
blowing snow/drifting snow. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy
skies and below normal temperatures are expected over the
remainder of the area.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Northwest flow and snow showers along the Chuckhi Sea Coast will
diminish some on Tuesday as the flow turns more northern, although
some showers will linger along the northern Seward Peninsula. Low
pressure passing over St. Lawrence island on Tuesday will bring
gusty winds and a few inches of snow to the island. As the low
moves into the Lower Yukon Valley Tuesday afternoon, 4-6" of snow
and possibly higher amounts are possible over a narrow band from
Emmonak to Russian Mission. The western Interior will otherwise be
dry and cool with some clouds.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Strong northwest winds and snow squalls will continue into Tuesday
and and diminish some on Wednesday. Visibility will be up and
down especially along the coast from Prudhoe Bay west with the
heavy snow showers. These winds will also bring elevated surf from
Utqiagvik to Point Hope through Tuesday morning. Further inland
and along the Brooks Range, where there are breaks in the clouds,
temperatures will be quite chilly for September. Morning lows in
the lower teens and single digits are likely from Anaktuvuk Pass
to Toolik Lake.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...the tight low mentioned
above moving into southwest Alaska will bring strong north winds
to the Yukon Delta coast on Wednesday. The winds will be
generally parallel to the coast no immediate concerns with
erosion.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A cold arctic high will be in place over mainland Alaska with
another low moving into the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday. Expect
temperatures to continue to be cool for late September. Models
continue to hint at a chance for another snow event for the
Interior Friday and Saturday, but the track of the gulf low as it
lifts north is still highly uncertain among the three major
global models.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ214

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

SEP 21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1120 AM AKDT MON SEP 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1119 AM     SNOW             3 NNW SALCHA            64.52N 146.99W
09/20/2021  M1.3 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER MEASURED 1.3 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR
            THIS MORNING.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1148 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

AKZ201-202-211800-
Western Arctic Coast-Northern Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, Cape Lisburne,
Utqiagvik, Alaktak, Pitt Point, and Nulavik
1148 AM AKDT Mon Sep 20 2021

...Elevated Surf through Tuesday morning along the Chukchi Sea
Coast...

West to northwest winds from 25 to 40 mph will persist along the
Chukchi Sea Coast from Point Hope to Utqiagvik. This will result
in increased water levels of 1 to 1.5 feet above the normal high
tide line through Tuesday morning.

Residents should secure items away from the beach as wave action
could wash to the top of the beach.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
115 PM AKDT MON SEP 20 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     SNOW             1 NNW EIELSON AFB       64.69N 147.11W
09/20/2021  M1.5 INCH        FAIRBANKS NORTH STAAK   OTHER FEDERAL

            EIELSON AFB WEATHER OBSERVER REPORTED 1.5
            INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR TODAY (AS OF 11:30
            AM). ONE INCH FELL IN THE HOUR BETWEEN 10
            AND 11AM.

&&