Small Craft Advisory 126, NWS Fairbanks, AK

144 
FZAK52 PAFG 181149
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-190230-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1016 mb high 10 NM SW of St. Matthew Island will weaken to a
1011 mb high by Sat night. A 1002 mb low 200 NM S of Wrangel 
Island will move to the southern Chukchi sea as a 1002 mb low bu 
4pm Sat, and then move inland Sat night. A cold front trailing 
this second low will move south over Norton Sound Sat night and 
Sun.

$$

PKZ200-190230-
Norton Sound-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-190230-
Dall Point to Wales-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-190230-
Kotzebue Sound-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-190230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
349 AM AKDT Sat Sep 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.
.MON...NW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
516 AM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The main theme going through the weekend is a transition to colder
as Arctic air moves south across forecast area. This colder air
is already moving into the northwest Arctic Coast as a front
decays this morning. Chances for snow remain good across that
region through the weekend. Quiet weather continues across the
West Coast and Interior, but chances for snow in higher elevations
possible east of Fairbanks tonight. A second surge of colder air
Sunday night will be the next system to watch for snow chances
going into next week for the Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A relatively active pattern and a big transition from what is
left of a seasonably pleasant fall to colder and increasing
potential for snow in areas that haven't received snow this season
in the Interior.

In the upper levels, the short term forecast will be dominated by
an Arctic closed low that will dig southeast into the Chukchi Sea
today and continue to move southeast near the northwest Arctic
Coast by Saturday evening. This closed low will remain along the
Arctic Coast going into next week.

The closed low is part of the longwave trough that will encompass
the state that reaches into the Gulf of Alaska over the next
several days. A strong shortwave from the Arctic closed low will
move east across northern Alaska from now through Saturday night
where it will reach the AlCan border. There will be another
shortwave that will follow behind on Sunday, but will elongate
from southwest to northeast across northern Alaska by Monday
morning. A closed low in the Gulf of Alaska on Sunday night will
begin to merge with this shortwave, but models differ to what
degree these two features will phase going into Monday. Therefore,
confidence is lower in how the weather will shape up for portions
of the Interior by Sunday night.

At the surface, low pressure off the Arctic Coast is the main
weather feature going through the weekend. A weather front is
currently over the North Slope, bringing rain and snow to various
areas from Utqiagvik west. As colder air moves in behind the
front, snow showers expected to develop and persist along the
northwest Arctic Coast going into tomorrow. The decaying front
will reach the Interior by tomorrow morning.

A second front will move across the northwestern Arctic Coast
bringing larger amounts of snow to that region going through the
end of the weekend. As this front propagates to the southeast, the
positioning between the models begin to differ going into Sunday
night. As a result, conditions seem favorable for a more
widespread possibility of snow, but the areas encompassed by these
possibilities remain to be seen.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Shaping up to be one more nice fall day before a transition to
colder for the Interior. Northerly gap winds will setup this
evening through Alaska Range passes with gusts to 35 mph as high
pressure builds north of the Alaska Range. A weak weather front
will slowly drift east across the Interior on Saturday, bringing
chances for rain and snow east of Fairbanks. Otherwise, staying
mostly dry until a second weather front moves through Sunday
night. Models still differ on timing and location for the frontal
setup, but looks to be a higher possibility of rain and snow
across the region going into Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Rain and snow continuing across the northwest Arctic Coast early
this morning. Snow showers will be the main precipitation type
going through the day as colder air will usher inland from the
northwest. After a brief break Saturday afternoon, another
weather front will bring the next round of snow to the northwest
Arctic Coast by Saturday night. Larger snow accumulations of 4 to
6 inches are possible along the western Arctic Coast between Cape
Lisburne and Point Lay going into next week. Snow across the
Brooks Range will see anywhere from 1 to 3 inches through
Saturday and an additional 4 to 6 inches from Saturday night
through Sunday night. Temperatures looks to remain below normal
going through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Chances for rain and snow increase for the Seward Peninsula,
Kotzebue Sound, and eastern Norton Sound tonight as a weather
front moves eastward. A second front will bring another round of
rain and snow on Saturday night. Snow accumulations expected to be
up to an inch for each round, but primarily limited to higher
elevations of the Seward Peninsula and hills east of Norton
Sound. Temperatures will dip below normal going into the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215.

&&

SEP 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
311 PM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

AKZ201-205-206-182000-
Western Arctic Coast-Northwestern Brooks Range-
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, Cape Lisburne,
Singiluk, Umiat, Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake,
Sagwon, and Franklin Bluffs
311 PM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...Cold And Snowy Weekend Over The Brooks Range and Western
Arctic Coast...

Several cold fronts will track east across the North Slope of
Alaska through Monday, causing snow to continue through Monday
and keeping temperatures cold. Between now and Monday, 3 to 6
inches of snow can be expected over the Western Arctic Coast and
along the Brooks Range. The Dalton Highway from Atigun Pass north
can expect 3 to 6 inches of snow through Monday, while some
remote areas of the Brooks Range could see up to 10 inches of
snow. Temperatures will remain in the 20s and 30s through Monday.

Coastal areas from Utqiagvik east will see less snow, with 1 to 2
inches expected in those areas through Monday.

JB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
332 PM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

AKZ218-219-221-182030-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-Central Interior-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp,
Iniakuk Lake, Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto,
Manley Hot Springs, Rampart, Lake Minchumina, and Livengood
332 PM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

..Significant Snowfall Possible Sunday Through Monday Night
Across The Central And Northern Interior...

Several inches of wet snow are possible across the Central and
Northern Interior Sunday through Monday. This includes the Dalton
Highway from Livengood to Atigun Pass, and the Elliot Highway
from Livengood to Manley. It is uncertain at this time how much
snow will fall, but elevations above 1000 feet will likely have
wet snow accumulate on road surfaces and cause travel
difficulties Sunday and Monday.

AKZ220-222>226-182030-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Middle Tanana Valley-
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, Stevens Village,
Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, Circle Hot Springs,
Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park,
Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids,
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
332 PM AKDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...Significant Snowfall Possible Sunday Night Through Monday Night
Across The Eastern Interior...

Several inches of wet snow are possible across the Eastern
Interior Sunday night through Monday night. This includes the
Fairbanks Area, and the Parks, Steese, Elliot, Richardson and
Taylor Highways. It is uncertain at this time how much snow will
fall, but elevations above 1000 feet will likely have wet snow
accumulate on road surfaces and cause travel difficulties
on Monday.

JB