Small Craft Advisory 114, NWS Fairbanks, AK

510 
FZAK52 PAFG 072326
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
326 PM AKDT Tue Sep 7 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-081415-
326 PM AKDT Tue Sep 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 993 mb low over the Bering Strait will move to 80 NM west of 
Point Lay as a 993 mb low by 4am Wed, and to 200 NM northwest of 
Utqiagvik as a 1003 mb low by 4am Thu before moving into the high 
Arctic Thu night and weakening. A trough of low pressure will form
along the Arctic Coast near Cape Lisburne Thu night. A third low 
in northeast Russia will move to the Gulf of Anadyr as a 992mb low
by Wed and then persist into Thu.

$$

PKZ200-081415-
Norton Sound-
326 PM AKDT Tue Sep 7 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog, rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-081415-
Dall Point to Wales-
326 PM AKDT Tue Sep 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5 ft. Fog.
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-081415-
Kotzebue Sound-
326 PM AKDT Tue Sep 7 2021

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-081415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
326 PM AKDT Tue Sep 7 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt becoming W. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.WED NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

306 
FZAK52 PAFG 081215
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
415 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-090215-
415 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 992 mb low just north of Point Lay will continue to push north
into the Chukchi Sea as a 990 mb low in the Northern Bering Sea
pushes north over the Gulf of Anadyr today. A 992 mb low in the
Southern Bering Sea will push east into the Northwestern Gulf of
Alaska tonight.

$$

PKZ200-090215-
Norton Sound-
415 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-090215-
Dall Point to Wales-
415 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.THU...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-090215-
Kotzebue Sound-
415 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-090215-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
415 AM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt becoming E. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
326 PM AKDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Normal autumn weather with rain along the West Coast and a mix of
sun and clouds over the Interior. Warming will commence as a
ridge aloft builds over the Interior the next few days with cooler
and cloudier and showery weather out west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A 517 dam 500 hpa arctic low is the anchor for the weather
pattern, with this feature just northwest of Wrangel Island. There
is a shortwave trough rotating around it across the eastern North
Slope with a more potent one moving into the Seward Peninsula.
There is a compact surface low moving into Norton Sound,
associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough. This feature
is bringing widespread rainfall to the West Coast. The Eastern
Interior is in between troughs and this has allowed for at least
some sun to peak through the clouds.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A front over the West Coast will pretty much stall, keeping a
threat of intermittent light rain over the Upper Koyukuk and Lower
Tanana, as well as across the southern Brooks Range. Otherwise,
dry conditions will persist over the remainder of the Interior as
ridging aloft builds in, which will bring in warming temps the
remainder of this week as well as southerly Alaska Range gap
winds. South winds will also pick up over the Brooks Range passes,
including Atigun where gusts will peak into the 30 mph range
tonight and Tuesday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain will spread inland tonight, bringing heavier rain over the
Western Brooks Range and south facing aspects. The front itself
will slowly weaken through Wednesday, with a gradual downtrend in
rainfall rates. Expecting an additional 0.5-1" over most of the
West Coast with 1-2" across the Western Brooks Range including the
upper Noatak and Kobuk Valleys. Slow drying trend over the
Interior on Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front moving in from the south will bring some spotty light
showers to the Arctic Plain and coast tonight. Another low will
bring another show of rain to the western Arctic Tuesday through
Wednesday. South gap winds will increase out of the Brooks Range
tonight as the front lifts north, with some gusty south winds in
excess of 40 mph, peaking tonight, then gradually waning through
tomorrow.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
End of the week will begin warm as a south flow aloft will
dominate the Interior, with rain over the West Coast. The pattern
looks to persist through the weekend, with more rain chances
moving into the Interior as the ridging breaks down and a series
of fronts possibly move inland, which will allow for gradually
cooling temps from the warmer temps which much of the Interior
will see for the next several days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rain will continually impact the West Coast and Western Interior
beginning this morning and last through Thursday. Rises expected
for most rivers and streams in this region, except sharp rises
expected for the Kobuk and Noatak River basins. Southern slopes of
the Western Brooks Range is forecast 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
during this time frame. So, expect increasing water levels to
rivers and streams that are already running high in this region,
with elevated waters lasting into the end of the week. Recreators
should exercise caution.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

Ahsenmacher SEP 21