Small Craft Advisory 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

517 
FZAK51 PAFG 292212
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
212 PM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-301430-
212 PM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A trough of low pressure will remain along the Arctic Coast
through Sunday. A series of weak fronts will move across the 
North Slope Monday and Tuesday.

$$

PKZ225-301430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
212 PM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-301430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
212 PM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-301430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
212 PM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-301430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
212 PM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-301430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
212 PM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

May 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
343 PM AKDT Fri May 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

One more cold morning is expected across the Interior in addition
to snow in the Alaska Range and areas of the Fortymile Uplands
before a warming trend begins Sunday. Gusty NE winds will also
persist through the day Saturday for most all areas from the
Brooks Range south. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will
rebound to near 70 degrees in the Interior. The North Slope will
stay socked in fog and stratus and the West Coast will stay mostly
clear, especially from Kotzebue north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft...
At 500mb, a 530 dam upper level trough centered near Stevens
Village will move to Hooper Bay at 523 dam by 4am Sunday, dragging
with it the cold air and precipitation that is currently over the
Interior. A ridge will build in over the Interior behind this
trough as it exits while a weak trough will drop down over the
North Slope by Sunday afternoon. At 850mb, the 0 C isotherm will
move back north of Fairbanks by late Saturday night, initiating a
warming trend. As the trough aloft drops down over the North Slope
on Sunday, it will bring colder 850 mb temperatures north of the
Brooks Range.

Surface...
A 1030 mb high remains in place near Wrangel Island with a 977 mb
low south of Unalaska. The high will weaken in place as high
pressure builds into the Eastern North Slope. The low will exit
southwest. The result of all of this is a strong NE to SW pressure
gradient driving strong NE winds over much of Northern Alaska.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Windy conditions will peak tonight with gusts in the 30 mph range
in valleys and 40+ mph range over higher terrain. These winds
will slowly die off overnight Saturday. An additional 2 inches of
slushy snow accumulation is possible along the Richardson Highway
and Tok Cutoff through tomorrow morning before precipitation
turns to rain and then shuts off. Expect a mix of snow and rain
showers east of Fairbanks through tomorrow morning. The Denali
Park Road can expect up to an inch of accumulation. Low
temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 30s in the Tanana
Valley and mainly in the 20s north and east of the Fairbanks area.
Highs will rebound tomorrow to the mid to upper 50s and on Sunday
and Monday to the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Strong NE winds will persist through Saturday night with gusts to
35 mph through the Interior and 45 mph over higher terrain. Expect
a cooldown on Saturday as the cold air mass from the Interior
shifts SW, but temperatures rebound on Sunday and Monday. Skies
stay clear through Saturday evening for Norton Sound and through
Monday from Kotzebue north. The next threat of rain showers will
be in the Lower Yukon Saturday evening extending to the Yukon
Delta and maybe to Norton Sound overnight. Any amounts will be
light.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A warming trend will begin tomorrow with highs in the Brooks Range
going from the 20s and 30s today to near 50 in places such as
Arctic Village by Sunday. The Arctic Coast will stay in the low to
mid 30s for highs. Winds will generally be light, though weak flow
and high pressure will allow for continued low stratus and fog and
even areas of light snow east of Nuiqsut tomorrow.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
The cold upper level low bringing cold temperatures to much of
northern Alaska will exit out over the Bering sea by Sunday,
opening the door for a ridge to build back in over the Central and
Eastern Interior. This will send high temperatures up to near 70
degrees for Monday and Tuesday. A low will move into the Gulf of
Alaska on Tuesday afternoon, and another low will move to near
Utqiagvik that same time period. This will increase chances of
precipitation and drop temperatures back to the low to mid 60s
from the Western Interior eastward for the latter portion of next
week. Expect fairly strong east winds along the Arctic Coast with
high pressure firmly established in the Beaufort Sea.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong NE winds gusting as high as 45 mph over higher terrain are
expected across the Interior and West Coast through Saturday
night. These winds will be dry with min RHs generally in the 25 to
35 percent range. Temperatures however will be hard pressed to
break 60 anywhere north of the AK Range with highs mostly in the
mid 50s south of the Brooks Range. No threat of thunderstorms
through the short term. Sunday begins a pattern shift with warming
temperatures and a ridge building back over the Central and
Eastern Interior. Next week appears to have chances for isolated
thunderstorms and more seasonable temperatures with highs
generally in the 60s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Breakup continues north of the Brooks Range with a few reported
ice jams along the Colville and Sag rivers, but no issues at this
time. A bit of ice also remains in the Kobuk River delta.
Interior rivers are running quite low with cooler temperatures
approaching to slow snowmelt even further. Moderate precipitation
in the Fortymile Uplands and Eastern Alaska Range is not
anticipated to have any significant impact on river levels.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CHRIEST MAY 21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1121 PM AKDT FRI MAY 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     SNOW             15 WNW TANACROSS        63.45N 143.83W
05/28/2021  E2.0 INCH        SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKSAK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROBERTSON RIVER OBSERVER REPORTED ~2INCHES
            OF MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH VISIBILITY
            INTERMITTENTLY REDUCED TO ~1/4 - 1/2 MI.

&&

DA