Small Craft Advisory 109, NWS Fairbanks, AK

016 
FZAK52 PAFG 041325
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
525 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-050230-
525 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 995 mb low near Point Lay will move 200 NM northwest of 
Wainwright as a 991 mb low by 4am Sun, and to just north of
Wrangel Island as a 990 mb low by 4am Mon. A weather front 
extending from this low south to the Yukon Delta will move to 
Prudhoe Bay south by 4am Sun, and to Barter Island south by 4am 
Mon. A low west of Wrangel Island will move to 100 NM northwest of
Wales by 4am Sun and to 60 NM west of Kotzebue by 4am Mon. 


$$

PKZ200-050230-
Norton Sound-
525 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-050230-
Dall Point to Wales-
525 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt becoming W. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TUE...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-050230-
Kotzebue Sound-
525 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding. Fog, rain.
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-050230-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
525 AM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

823 
FZAK52 PAFG 042121
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
121 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-051415-
121 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 995 mb low near Point Lay will move 200 NM northwest of 
Wainwright as a 991 mb low by 4am Sun, and to just north of
Wrangel Island as a 990 mb low by 4am Mon. A weather front 
extending from this low south to the Yukon Delta will move to 
Prudhoe Bay south by 4am Sun, and to Barter Island south by 4am 
Mon. A low west of Wrangel Island will move to 100 NM northwest of
Wales by 4am Sun and to 60 NM west of Kotzebue by 4am Mon.

$$

PKZ200-051415-
Norton Sound-
121 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-051415-
Dall Point to Wales-
121 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog.
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E winds 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-051415-
Kotzebue Sound-
121 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-051415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
121 PM AKDT Sat Sep 4 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Fog.
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

Sep 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
219 PM AKDT Fri Sep 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather and southerly flow over the Eastern Interior will
support chances for isolated afternoon thunderstorms today and
Saturday. Substantial rainfall is expected to develop Saturday
across Fortymile Country, though no major impacts are expected.
Out west, a weather front will bring rain as well as colder
temperatures to the immediate coast beginning Saturday, spreading
inland Sunday. Broad troughing will support showery weather
through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft 500 mb...
A longwave trough encompasses much of the Eastern Bering Sea and
Interior Alaska. A ridge is present across the far Eastern
Interior but is being pushed east ahead of the deepening trough. A
potent shortwave will swing east from the Bering Sea late Saturday
and spawn a closed low in the Gulf of Alaska Sunday. Beyond this
point, the pattern becomes fairly complex with involving several
height minima and multiple shortwave troughs. However, the big
picture which most of the guidance seems to support is a
continuous parade of shortwave troughs into the mid week across
the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea with some measure of weak
ridging over the far eastern Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A ridge over the Beaufort Sea is supporting easterly flow along
with light drizzle and areas of fog along the coast. Fog will be
thick at times through tonight. The high will lift north tonight
along with a low centered near Cape Lisburne, which will deepen to
992 mb approximately 150nm northwest of Wainwright Saturday. This
system will be the harbinger of change as it will support a strong
front which will then sweep east across the Chukchi Sea and
eastern Bering Sea Sunday into Monday. Cold Arctic air will be
pulled from the northwest across the region. Precipitation will be
light and fall mainly in the form of rain as the front approaches
Barter Island Monday, but snowfall is expected across the higher
elevations of the western Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A weather front covering much of the Chukchi and Bering Sea
coastline will support rain across the region. The front will
begin to track inland late Saturday as the parent low deepens
over the Chukchi Sea. A series of weather systems will continue to
impact the coast through mid next week. Guidance remains
ambiguous with the exact timing and track of these systems but
there is potential for a strong low to form and cause impacts
along the coast. Regardless, flow will remain mainly westerly and
support cool weather with on and off periods of rain.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Southerly flow across the Eastern Interior will support chances
for isolated afternoon thunderstorms today and Saturday.
Temperatures are expected to remain above average before falling
again Sunday as troughing overtakes the region. An easterly wave
will move into the Fortymile region tonight, supporting
increasing rainfall chances, culminating in widespread rain by
late Saturday with generally up to 0.50 inches of accumulation
expected, locally up to 1 inch. Following frontal passage Sunday,
expect a return to southwest flow with cooler temperatures and
showery conditions.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers have been falling or holding steady, but will likely begin
rising again over the next few days due to more rainfall. The
Fortymile River, in particular may see a significant rise, but no
flooding is expected at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

COWMAN SEP 21