Small Craft Advisory 103, NWS Fairbanks, AK

325 
FZAK52 PAFG 292200
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
200 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-301415-
200 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1009 low currently in the Southern Chukchi Sea push east to near
Kivalina and will weaken to around 1010 mb as it pushes northeast
over the North Slope tonight and Monday. High pressure builds 
over the Bering Strait Tuesday.

$$

PKZ200-301415-
Norton Sound-
200 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-301415-
Dall Point to Wales-
200 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-301415-
Kotzebue Sound-
200 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-301415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
200 PM AKDT Sun Aug 29 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
330 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A front that is currently over the West Coast will bring
precipitation as it moves eastward into the Interior tonight. A
second system will bring additional precipitation as it moves
from west to east across the area Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 28/12 UTC model suite generally initialized well when compared
to observational data. The models are in generally good agreement
in the short term in terms of the overall synoptic scale pattern.
The models do differ some with precipitation along the front that
will push east across the Interior tonight and Sunday. The NAM is
more enthusiastic about bringing precipitation into the Fairbanks
area on Sunday morning than the ECMWF or the GFS. Our current
forecast gives more weight to the NAM solution, since it seems to
be in better agreement with the high resolution models. We only
made minor changes to the inherited forecast grids.

Aloft, at 500 mb,
A 548 dam low is currently in place over southeast Alaska, with a
trough extending into the Interior. A 522 dam low is currently
over the Arctic, while a ridge is currently building over the
Bering Sea. A weak trough associated with the low in the Arctic
will push east across the Interior tonight into early Sunday. The
flow over northern Alaska will become more zonal on Sunday as the
the ridge over the Bering builds east over the Gulf of Alaska. A
pair of shortwaves will move eastward over the area through the
westerly flow Monday into Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A front will move in from the west tonight. This front will bing
increased cloud coverage. Areas east of Fairbanks will see enough
time with clear skies tonight after sunset for temperatures to
drop to near to below freezing. Cloud cover will move in for
Fairbanks and points to the west to keep lows tonight in the upper
30s to lower 40s. Rainfall associated with this front will move
into the Central Interior early Sunday. The models are split on
how much rainfall makes it to Fairbanks and points to the east.
The NAM many of higher resolution models do bring rain into
Fairbanks during the day on Sunday, while the GFS and the ECMWF do
not. Our current forecast gives some play the high resolution
models  There is a better shot for precipitation across the
Interior on Monday as a shortwave moves from west to east across
the area. Another shortwave will move over the area on Tuesday.
Rainfall with this system looks to remain north of Fairbanks as a
ridge is expected to start to push north into the southern
Interior on Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front will bring rain as well as higher elevation snow to the
Beaufort Sea Coast and Brooks Range tonight into early Sunday.
Precipitation along the front looks to taper off by Sunday
afternoon. Snowfall at pass level in the Brooks Range looks to be
around and inch. Westerly winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected along
the coast tonight. A shortwave will pass over the area on Monday
bringing rainfall near the coast and snowfall in the Brooks Range
(around another inch at pass level). The precipitation will linger
into Tuesday before tapering off.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front that is currently bringing rainfall to the West Coast will
move into the western Interior tonight. A second round of rainfall
is expected as a shortwave moves over the West Coast Sunday
evening and into the Western Interior Sunday night. Some light
rainfall will linger into Monday, especially in the Western
Interior. Another shortwave will pass from west to east over the
area on Tuesday resulting in additional chances for rainfall.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
Tuesday night, a ridge will build north along the AlCan Border,
which will bring southerly flow over much of the area into Friday.
This will result in drier conditions, although weak disturbances
could move north along the West Coast bringing light rainfall at
times. A trough looks to dig south over the west coast on Friday,
with continued southerly flow over the eastern half of the area.
This will likely increase the chances for rainfall along the West
Coast. With the southerly flow over the Alaska Range we could see
periods of strong winds near Alaska Range passes late in the upcoming
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns at the moment. The Interior will generally trend
warmer and drier next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All rivers are below bankfull and no issues are anticipated over
the next few days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.

&&

AUG 21