Small Craft Advisory 102, NWS Fairbanks, AK

062 
FZAK52 PAFG 282312
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
312 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-291415-
312 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1007 mb low near Kotzebue Sound will push inland tonight. High
pressure will build over the Bering Sea on Sun. 

$$

PKZ200-291415-
Norton Sound-
312 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ210-291415-
Dall Point to Wales-
312 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

.TONIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-291415-
Kotzebue Sound-
312 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ220-291415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
312 PM AKDT Sat Aug 28 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

Aug 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
311 PM AKDT Fri Aug 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High surf is expected overnight along the Chukchi Sea Coast from
Point Hope southward to Cape Krusenstern as a front bring stronger
southwesterly winds to the area. This front will also bring
precipitation to the Arctic Coast and the Brooks Range as it
pushes east tonight and Saturday. In the Interior will taper off
this tonight and skies will clear from west to east as a front
moving through the area pushes east into Canada.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 27/12 UTC model suite generally initialized well when compared
to observational data. We leaned on a blend of the operational
forecast models for our forecast today, with most of the larger
changes to the grids coming in day 3.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a trough stretches from near Utqiagvik to 542
dam low in the northern Gulf of Alaska. This low will push into
British Columbia on Saturday. Ridging will build east over the
Gulf of Alaska and the southern half of the state Sunday into
Monday. This, when combined with a persistent low over the Arctic
Ocean will result in mainly zonal flow over the northern half of
the state. We will likely see a pair of shortwaves move from west
to east across the westerly flow Sunday and Monday. For Tuesday
and Wednesday, the ridge will build north along the AlCan Border.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A front that has brought rainfall and higher elevation snowfall
to the Interior today will push into the far southeastern Interior
this evening. Snow is occuring at pass level along the Richardson
Highway through the Alaska Range, where up to an inch of snow is
possible before the snow tapers off tonight. Temperatures will
drop into the low 30s (or possibly colder) tonight as skies clear
from west to east. Most areas west of Fairbanks will see
sufficient clearing for temperatures to drop below freeing. There
is some model uncertainty about how much clearing we will see in
Fairbanks before sunrise in the morning. The NAM would suggest
that there would be sufficient clearing for frost in Fairbanks
while the GFS suggests that could cover will linger until after
sunrise. Given this uncertainty, will hold off on a Frost Advisory
for the Fairbanks area and will keep out the SPS on the subject.
This aspect of the forecast will have to be closely monitored this
evening. Given the wet weather today and the clearing expected
tonight, we will see some patchy fog around the Interior on
Saturday morning. Gusty upper westerly winds are possible early
Saturday in the upper Tanana Valley, with breezy northerly gap
winds in the Alaska Range. Drier conditions are expected for
Saturday, with highs mainly in the 50s. Chances for precipitation
will increase Saturday evening across the Central Interior. Snow
levels Saturday night will generally be around 3500 ft, but are
expected to rise significantly on Sunday. A shortwave moving from
west to east over the area will bring additional chances for
rainfall on Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A front will bring southwesterly winds of 25 to 35 mph to the
Chukchi Sea Coast overnight tonight. This will cause high surf for
a period overnight. I opted to issue a High Surf Advisory for
tonight for coastline from Cape Krusenstern to Point Hope.
Kivalina will see water levels overnight of 2 to 4 feet above the
normal high tide line. This system will also bring rainfall to the
northwest Arctic tonight into Saturday, with chances for rainfall
moving into the Western Interior Saturday evening. There will
chances for rainfall at times into Monday as a couple of
shortwaves move through the area.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A front will bring precipitation tonight to the Chukchi Sea Coast
and the Western Brooks Range tonight. Along the coast, the
precipitation will primarily be in the form of rain, although it
is possible some snow may mix in Saturday morning. Breezy
southwesterly winds are expected along the front. The front will
push east on Saturday, bringing mainly rain to the Beaufort Sea
coast and snow to the eastern Brooks Range. Atigun Pass could see
up to two inches of snow as this front moves through. A second
system looks to move from west to east across the Chukchi Sea
coast and the western Brooks Range Sunday evening and across the
Beaufort Sea Coast and eastern Brooks Range on Monday, with
precipitation lingering Monday night.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
No hazards for days 3 and 4; however see the west coast section
above for hazards in the short term.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
It currently looks like a ridge will build over the AlCan Border
on Tuesday, resulting in southerly flow over much of the area that
will continue through much of the week. This will result in
warmer and generally drier conditions for much of the Interior.
The west coast sill likely see disturbances that bring rainfall
as they move from south to north along the coast, although the
models don't have much in the way of agreement when it comes to
timing. The southerly flow aloft could also support periods of
strong, southerly gap winds at times in the Alaska Range as
disturbances move over the area, although again there is
uncertainty in the timing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Give the recent wet pattern, there are no concerns at the moment.
Temperatures in the Interior will generally trend warmer with
drier conditions expected for next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All rivers are below bankfull. Due to low freezing levels and
snow at higher elevations, the additional precipitation across
the forecast area the next couple days is not expected to result
in any issues.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory for AKZ207.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.

Gale Warning for PKZ220.
&&

AUG 21