Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
312 AM AKDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Alaska continues to sit under a broad trough of low
pressure with isolated or scattered rain and snow showers found
over much of Northern Alaska. Conditions will be slow to change
over Northern Alaska as a series of low pressure systems in the
main storm track push east from the Southern Bering Sea into the
Northern gulf of Alaska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 10/00z model suite initialized well against the 00z surface
analysis and verified well against the 06z surface analysis.
Spread between model families remains minimal as well as from run
to run into early next week and is reasonable into the middle and
end of next week. The models continue to indicate a series of
fast moving and strong low pressure systems moving east out of
the Southern Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska and into the
Panhandle.

Aloft at 500 mb, a broad 521 dam low over Central Alaska will
continue to slowly move to the east as an upper level over the
Central Bering Sea pushes east over the Eastern Bering Sea and
Western Alaska this afternoon and over Central Alaska this
afternoon. A 523 dam low over the Western Bering Sea pushes east
over the Eastern Bering Sea on Monday and into the Northern Gulf
of Alaska on Tuesday morning.

On the surface, a 988 mb low in the Central Bering Sea will push
east into Bristol Bay by Monday Morning and into the Northern Gulf
of Alaska as a 968 mb low Monday evening. A low pressure trough
over the southern Interior will remain in place as moisture feeds
into West Coast and Western Interior this evening and over the
Eastern and Central Interior Monday night and into Tuesday. Light
rain and snow shower activity will continue over these areas into
Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...A mixed bag of precipitation will
continue tonight. Expect a rain and snow mix today in Fairbanks
with minimal snow accumulations and mostly snow above 1500 ft
where a slushy inch of snow is possible. Up to 2 inches are possible
over 2000 ft. Expect some clearing Monday afternoon and Monday
night. Southerly winds in the Alaska Range will pick up again late
this evening and continue into Monday. Winds are expected to
remain below 30 mph. A weak Tanana Valley Jet will also form this
evening and continue into Monday. On Tuesday, a low pressure
center in the Gulf of Alaska will wrap moisture into the Eastern
Interior. Models disagree on how far west the precipitation moves,
but for now expect light snow from Fairbanks east, with more snow
closer to the Alcan Border. High and low temperatures will slowly
cool through the week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Onshore flow with fog, stratus, and
light snow will continue along the Arctic Coast through Tuesday.
Fog may be dense at times through the Monday. Winds will remain
mostly below 15 mph, but may increase Monday west of Wainwright
and on Tuesday near Deadhorse into the 25 mph range. Winds through
Brooks Range passes will generally be 10 mph or less. High
temperatures will be mostly in the 20s with low temperatures in
the low 20s and teens along the coast and the single digits in the
Brooks Range and across the Arctic Plain.

West Coast and Western Interior...This afternoon rain will spread
back into the Yukon Delta and north into the far Western Interior
Monday and Tuesday, again as a mix of rain and snow. Total snow
amounts for areas that see snow will generally be a slushy 2
inches or less. High temperatures the next few days will be mostly
in the 30s with a slight cooling trend occurring inland. Lows
will be mostly in the upper 20s inland and north of the Seward
Peninsula and in the low to mid 30s along the coast from Nome
south.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...Models are in agreement
that Northern Alaska will generally remain in a troughing pattern
through next weekend. The storm track will generally drive low
pressure systems from the southwest Bering Sea across the
Aleutians and into the Gulf of Alaska. Some precipitation may make
it as far north as Norton Sound, and lows in the Gulf of Alaska
may spin moisture into the southeast Interior through the week.
This pattern will allow for a downward trend in temperatures,
though no highly impactful weather is anticipated.

&&

Freeze up is slowly occurring across northern Alaska with no known
issues at this time. For rivers not yet freezing, there are also
no known or anticipated issues at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ505.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

&&

CCC OCT 21