Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 50, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1229 PM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Light snow will continue over the Eastern Interior
through Saturday, but light snowfall amounts expected. The Arctic
will maintain the stratus over the coastal areas with some
flurries, while inland some clearing as high pressure that has
moved over the West Coast will be pushing east across the Arctic
Plain, Brooks Range, and into the Western Interior. Temperatures
will be falling though the middle of next week.

.DISCUSSION...Models...13/12Z solutions are in fairly good
agreement through Monday night, then diverge quite a bit. There
are some issues on where an Arctic low will drop down across the
State on Tuesday, but general pattern is northerly flow and
remaining cold over much of the state.

Aloft...Upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska will track to the
southeast on Sunday. High pressure aloft will build over the
Bering. Northwest flow will continue aloft over the state
reinforcing the cold air already in place. A strong low over the
Arctic will drop down over the state on Tuesday. Much colder air
aloft will follow this short wave over Northern Alaska, bring
much below normal temperatures to most areas for much of the
week, excepting those areas along the West Coast that are near
open water.

Surface...
High pressure stretching from the YK Delta to the Western Brooks
Range will build over the Interior and Eastern North Slope through
tonight and then weaken on Sun. Clearing clouds under this high
will move inland over the Interior and Eastern North Slope tonight
and Sun, and cause cooling, with temperatures falling into the
zero to 30 below range in the clear areas.

Interior...High pressure building into the Interior Saturday with
some clearing skies and falling temperatures. Winds variable to
10 mph. Highs in the Single digits above through Sunday, then
falling to Zero to 10 below on Monday. Lows zero to 10 below,
except around 20 below near Central, through Sunday, then 15
below to 30 below next week with the coldest temperatures around
Central and north of the Yukon River.

West coast and North slope...A weather system near Wrangel Island
of Russia will move over the Eastern Chukchi Sea this afternoon,
then over the West Coast and Western Arctic tonight and Sun,
before moving southeast across the Interior Sun into Mon. Expect
1-2 inches of snow over NW Alaska from this afternoon through Sun
afternoon from the Bering Strait to Point Barrow, with lesser
amounts over the Norton Sound Coast and the Arctic Coast east of
Point Barrow. Highs in the teens and 20s along the coast, around
30 on St Lawrence Island, and in the single digits above and below
in the inland areas. Lows will range from the 20s above on St
Lawrence Island and the capes to the single digits above along the
coast to the teens below inland.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

NOV 21