Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 42, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...RESENT
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
147 AM AKDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A low moving northeast off of the Eastern Arctic Coast will this
morning will continue to produce strong southwest to northwest
winds east of Utqiagvik with snow and areas of blowing snow.
Visibility may be reduced to less than one half mile at times. The
interior will generally be quiet with some areas of clearing of
mid and upper level clouds, however areas of dense fog will
continue especially around the Fairbanks area through late morning.
A low over Bristol Bay combined with high pressure over eastern
Siberia will continue to produce gusty northerly winds through the
Bering Strait and Northern Bering Sea. Snow showers along the
West Coast will bring some light accumulations to the Western
Interior and West Coast, but it will be pretty localized with less
than 2 inches of snowfall expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models...The 4/00z model suite initialized well against both the
00z surface analysis as well as the upper level observations as
well as verified well against the 06z surface analysis. Model
spread remains limited in the short range and into the weekend,
but increases to dramatically by the beginning of next week.

Aloft at 500 mb a broad trough with axis along the West Coast of
Alaska and stretching from the Yukon into Eastern Siberia is
anchored by a 486 dam low near 80N and the Dateline and a
secondary 510 dam low over the northwestern Gulf of Alaska. An
upper level ridge continues to build north into the Central and
Eastern Interior and has contributed to trapping dense fog in many
valley locations as skies aloft clear and winds diminish. Very
little change is expected for the weather pattern other than the
upper level trough and colder air aloft drifting to the east over
the next several days. 850 mb temperatures over Fairbanks
currently near zero Celsius will drop to around 8 below on
Saturday morning and drop to around 10 below Sunday and Monday and
drop further to around 15 below by Tuesday as colder air moves in
from the west initially and then pushes southwest into eastern
Alaska from the Canadian High Arctic. Temperatures will slowly
drop over Northern Alaska to near normal for most areas by the end
of the weekend and will likely drop below normal by early next
week.

Surface...A broad area of low pressure remains over Northern
Alaska with low pressure centers over Bristol Bay and just west of
Banks Island. The low near Banks Island continues to deepen but
is moving further off shore so winds and snow are expected to
diminish by this afternoon. Low visibilities in snow and blowing
snow will improve by late this morning. A surface high pressure
system over the Yukon will weaken through the day as the low in
Bristol Bay weakens and pushes into the northwestern Gulf of
Alaska. The pressure gradient between the low in Bristol Bay and a
high pressure ridge over Eastern Siberia will continue to produce
gusty north winds in the Southern Chukchi Sea, Kotzebue Sound,
the Bering Strait and the northern Bering Sea into Friday and
northwest winds in the same areas into Saturday. High pressure
aloft and abundant moisture in the lowest levels of the atmosphere
and combined with light winds has produce areas of dense fog over
the Central and Eastern Interior, but especially near Fairbanks.
Many areas in the interior will see some peeks of the sun today
but many other areas especially in valley locations will see
persistent fog and low ceilings. A weak low pressure system breaks
away from the low in Bristol Bay and traverses south to north
over the Western Interior and pushes north to near Point Hope by
Friday evening and will bring another round of clouds and light
snow or flurries to the West Coast, the Western Interior, and the
Northwest Coast on Friday. A weak front rotating around a weak low
in the Gulf of Alaska into the Eastern and Central Interior on
Saturday will bring clouds and a chance of light snow to theses
areas on Saturday.

Temperatures will slowly drop over Northern Alaska through the
weekend and into early next week with high temperatures in the
Interior dropping from the upper 20s and lower 30s this afternoon
into the lower 20s by Sunday and into the lower teens to single
digits above by the middle of next week. Low temperatures in the
Interior will drop from the teens tonight to the single digits
above and below zero by early next week and will continue into late
next week. The upper level airmass would support surface low
temperatures in the teens below in the coldest locations should a
particular location receive several hours of clear skies late
next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory for AKZ222.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ500.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
&&

CCC NOV 21