Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 27, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
150 PM AKDT Sun Oct 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil weather pattern over most of Northern Alaska with mostly
cloudy to partly cloudy skies found over much of the Interior and
partly cloudy skies found over much of the West Coast. The North
Slope Coastal areas continue to receive snow squalls which has
brought down visibility to one quarter mile at times this
afternoon in Utqiagvik and elsewhere along the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12 surface
analysis and upper air observations. The 12z model suite also
verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Models spread
both between model families as well as between model run to model
run remains limited well Into the mid range and is reasonable in
the extended range.

Aloft at 500 mb...A broad upper level longwave trough remains over
Northern Alaska along with a sharp secondary upper level low that
is located over the northern pacific and Gulf of Alaska while a
ridge is located over the Central and Eastern Bering Sea. This
ridge will push east over the Eastern Bering Sea and West Coast as
well as the Western Interior into Tuesday. Another upper level low
will push east over the Western and Northern Bering Sea late
Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge builds over the Central and
Eastern Interior Wednesday. A ridge, trough, ridge pattern will
result. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal over mush of
Northern Alaska early in the week and then gradual warming as
southerly flow with the building ridge builds over Alaska.

On the surface...A 976 mb low currently located over Kodiak
Island will slowly strengthen then weaken as it remains in place
in the northern Gulf of Alaska through Tuesday. A 976 mb low over
the Central Bering Sea will move northeast and weaken to around
986 mb low as it pushes through the Bering Strait on Wednesday.
A third low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Storm
Namtheun will push north and east into the Central Aleutian
Islands on Thursday and push generally into the Eastern Bering
Sea, however there remains much uncertainty on the track and
strength of this system.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Onshore flow from Wainwright
west, and offshore flow to the east. Winds 5 to 15 mph. Brief
heavy snow squalls continue to bring visibility down to one
quarter mile at times to the west of Utqiagvik. Generally cloudy
with flurries today. Patchy fog dense fog. High pressure moving
over the area Monday will bring some breaks. Along the coast highs
will be in the 20s, with lows in the teens. Inland and in the
Brooks Range highs in the lower teens and lows in the single
digits above.

West Coast and Western Interior...Partly cloudy skies as high
pressure moves over most of the area for Monday. A strong weather
front will move to the West Coast Tuesday with snow moving up the
coast and into the inland areas. Gusty northerly winds will
continue to diminish this evening with winds around 25 mph for
the coast with light and variable winds inland. Highs in the mid
20s to mid 30s, with lows in the teens to mid 20s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Pressure gradient across the Alaska
Range continues to diminish as do the winds in the foothills and
near the Alaska Range Passes. A Tanana Valley Jet will continue
into the this evening before waning this evening. High clouds will
remain tonight and tomorrow over much of the Interior. High
pressure is building slowly over the Interior this evening and
overnight, with winds over the Alsaka Range diminishing this
evening. Lows 10 to 20 above with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong low moving
across the Northern Bering Sea Monday will produce elevated surf
on the south side of St Lawrence Island Monday night, and the
south facing coastlines of the Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait
beginning early Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A low moving out of the
Central Bering Sea will bring snow to the west coast Tuesday with
no significant accumulations. Interior areas will under high
pressure with light winds and breaks in the clouds. Easterly flow
in the Arctic will prevail along with low clouds and some patchy
fog. A warming trend across the area with temperatures slightly
above climatological normals.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

CCC OCT 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
423 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

AKZ211-213-214-190000-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Including Nome, White Mountain, Golovin, Gambell, Savoonga,
Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, Diomede, Mountain Village,
Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, Pilot Station, St Marys, Scammon Bay,
Marshall, Nunam Iqua, and Pitkas Point
423 AM AKDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...Elevated Surf south of the Bering Strait...

Elevated surf with wave runup of 1 to 2 feet above the normal
high tide line is expected Monday evening through at least
Wednesday.

Outer coastal areas with south and southwest facing coastlines
from the Bering Strait south and the south side of St Lawrence
Island will see the highest surf.

A strong low pressure system moving east across the Bering Sea
will produce the storm surge as it moves to St Lawrence Island by
Tuesday evening.

Residents should move boats and other property well above the
normal high tide line in advance of the storm.

For the latest information go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks.