Flood Watch 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

850 
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1101 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...Flood Watch in Effect through Saturday Morning for Yukon River
at Eagle...

AKZ224-072000-
/O.COR.PAFG.FA.A.0001.210507T0657Z-210508T2000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
1101 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a

* Flood Watch for the Yukon River at Eagle.

* Through Saturday morning

* An ice jam on the Yukon River has formed upstream from Eagle 
  between Eagle and Dawson City Yukon Territory. Upon release 
  flooding could occur at Eagle.

* The Yukon River breakup front progressed through Dawson City
  Yukon Territory Thursday morning. An ice jam formed downstream
  from Dawson City Thursday afternoon in the vicinity of Fort
  Reliance which is about 80 miles upstream from Eagle. River 
  levels were rising at Dawson City and were bankfull at 2PM. The 
  ice is still in place in the vicinity of Eagle and when upstream
  ice jams release flooding may occur in Eagle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

Flooding is possible. Take appropriate precaution to move
belonging to higher ground.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

731 
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FFAAFG

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1134 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...Flood Watch in Effect through Saturday Morning for Yukon River
at Eagle...

AKZ224-081400-
/O.CON.PAFG.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210508T2000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
1134 AM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* the Yukon River at Eagle.

* Through Saturday morning

* An ice jam on the Yukon River has formed upstream from Eagle 
  between Eagle and Dawson City Yukon Territory. Upon release 
  flooding could occur at Eagle. 

* The Yukon River breakup front progressed through Dawson City
  Yukon Territory Thursday morning. An ice jam formed downstream
  from Dawson City Thursday afternoon in the vicinity of Fort
  Reliance which is about 80 miles upstream from Eagle. River
  levels at Dawson City are running near bankfull. The ice is
  still in place in the vicinity of Eagle and has lifted some
  today, but when the upstream ice jams release flooding may 
  occur in Eagle. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

Flooding is possible. Take appropriate precaution to move
belonging to higher ground.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

734 
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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...Flood Watch in Effect through Saturday Morning for Yukon River
at Eagle...

AKZ224-081400-
/O.CON.PAFG.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210508T2000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
234 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* the Yukon River at Eagle.

* Through Saturday morning

* Multiple Ice Jams remain in place on the Yukon River up river 
  from Eagle. Upon release flooding could occur at Eagle. 

* As of Friday morning there are at least two Ice Jams on the
  Yukon River up river from Eagle. Just up river from Eagle
  Village a small Ice Jam is in place as well as another Ice Jam 
  at Dozen Islands. In addition, there is still significant in 
  place ice above the Fortymile confluence in the Yukon Territory 
  downriver from Dawson City. When the breakup front progresses 
  through Eagle flooding is possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

Flooding is possible. Take appropriate precaution to move
belonging to higher ground.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

970 
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FFAAFG

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
500 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...Flood Watch in Effect through Monday Morning for Yukon River 
at Eagle...

AKZ224-092015-
/O.EXT.PAFG.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210510T2000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
500 AM AKDT Sat May 8 2021

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* The Yukon River at Eagle.

* Through Monday morning

* Multiple ice jams and high water remain in place on the Yukon 
  River upstream of Eagle. Upon release of those upstream jams, 
  flooding could occur at Eagle. 

* As of Saturday morning there are several ice jams on the Yukon
  River upstream of Eagle. Just up river from Eagle Village, a
  small ice jam is in place as well as another ice jam at Dozen
  Islands. In addition, there is still significant in place ice
  and high water on the Yukon River upstream of the Fortymile
  confluence. When the breakup front progresses through Eagle 
  over the next several days flooding is possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

Flooding is possible. Take appropriate precaution to move
belonging to higher ground.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

041 
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FFAAFG

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
945 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...Flood Watch in Effect through Monday Morning for Yukon River
at Eagle...

AKZ224-102000-
/O.CON.PAFG.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210510T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
945 AM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* The Yukon River at Eagle.

* Through Monday morning

* Multiple ice jams and high water remain in place on the Yukon 
  River upstream of Eagle. Upon release of those upstream jams, 
  flooding could occur at Eagle. 

* As of Sunday morning there are several ice jams on the Yukon 
  River upstream of Eagle. Just up river from Eagle Village, a 
  small ice jam is in place as well as another ice jam at Dozen 
  Islands. In addition, there is still significant in place ice 
  and high water on the Yukon River upstream of the Fortymile 
  confluence. When the breakup front progresses through Eagle over
  the next several days flooding is possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

Flooding is possible. Take appropriate precaution to move
belonging to higher ground.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

323 
WGAK69 PAFG 092131
FFAAFG

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
131 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

AKZ224-092245-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210510T2000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan, 
Chicken, and Boundary
131 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for The Yukon River at Eagle has been cancelled,
due to the break-up front passing through.

$$

AKZ220-110400-
/O.NEW.PAFG.FA.A.0002.210509T2131Z-210511T0400Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Including Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle, Stevens Village, 
Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek, Circle Hot Springs, 
Eagle Summit, and Twelvemile Summit
131 PM AKDT Sun May 9 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a

* Flood Watch for the Yukon River near Circle.

* Through Monday evening.

* Multiple ice jams are in place on the Yukon River upstream from
  Circle. Upon release flooding could occur at Circle. 

* Two ice jams up river from Circle were reported from aerial
  reconnaissance. The closest ice jam was 25 miles up the Yukon
  River from Circle and a more significant ice jam was near the 
  confluence of the Nation River with the Yukon River. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

Flooding is possible. Take appropriate precaution to move
belonging to higher ground.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
157 PM AKDT Thu May 6 2021

SYNOPSIS...Quiet today and tonight with fog in the coastal areas
being the primary issue. A fast moving wave will move into the
Interior tomorrow bringing isolated to scattered Thunderstorms to
the Central and Eastern Interior from late morning into the
afternoon. The weekend looks pretty good across the forecast area.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...06/12Z Solutions are in good agreement through the
midrange. The surface solutions are also in good agreement, and
initialized well against the 06/15Z surface analysis. Solutions
area showing a good bullseye of Lifted Index from +1 to -2, and
non zero CAPE values moving through the Interior Friday during the
day. Will be using a blend of the high resolution models for
precipitation early in the forecast periods then transition to a
blend of the other solutions for Saturday and Sunday. Winds
generally much lighter than what solutions where showing even
yesterday, so have toned them down a bit for the evening. Will use
a blend for the remainder of the forecast leaning on the GFS. No
expecting a lot of change in the temperatures through the weekend,
so will be adjusting them at the local level with no widespread
changes.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the northern half of the state
extends from Montana to the Northwest Territories, then northwest
over the Yukon Territory to a 548 dam high 200 nm west of Wrangel
Island. A 529 dam low just north of Banks Island has a shortwave
extending southwest over the Eastern Arctic this afternoon. A 535
dam low is near Kodiak City, with a 535 dam low 200 nm west of
the Queen Charlotte Islands. Ridging is pushing north out of the
Pacific over 150W then north of Bristol Bay today, and a 524 dam
low has moved over Atka. By Saturday afternoon the shortwave in
the Eastern Arctic will pull northeast over the Beaufort Sea as
the ridging slides north over the Eastern Arctic Coast and the
high near Wrangel Island moves just to the northeast of the
Island. The low that was near Kodiak City will move northeast into
the Interior Friday moving over Delta Junction as it weakens and
eventually dissipates over McKenzie Bay Saturday. The low over the
Aleutians will slide east through the weekend and be over Dutch
Harbor Sunday afternoon at 534 dam. Ridging will rebuild northwest
over the Interior Sunday night. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm is
pushing northwest into the Interior over the Tanana Valley and
Alaska Range. It will pull back to the southeast a bit Friday as
the shortwave aloft moves through the area, then surge back to the
west Sunday and Monday.

Surface...Northeasterly to easterly flow across the state with a
1032 mb high just off the Arctic Coast, and low pressure to the
south with a 1003 mb low in the Copper River Basin, and a 993 mb
low off the Panhandle Coast. Weak high pressure has moved over
Kodiak Island, and a 962 mb low has moved over the Aleutians near
Adak. By Friday afternoon there is not significant change in the
pattern with the exception of the gradient being squeezed over
mainland Alaska. The 1030 mb high in the Arctic will 300 nm north
of Deadhorse, while the low over the Copper River Basin will move
over Burwash Landing YT with a trough extending west then
southwest over Bristol Bay to a 989 mb low that will develop
tonight and move over Sand Point. Still no significant change in
the pattern through Saturday except the gradient across the
Interior will relax as the low near Sand Point rotates to the
northwest while a 1011 mb low move to Kodiak Island. The thermal
trough will also reform in the Interior this weekend.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Generally cloudy with some breaks
through the weekend. Areas of fog and some flurries at times, and
a period of snow for Nuiqsut east Saturday. Winds northeast to
east at 10 to 20 mph increasing to 15 to 30 mph. As some snow
moves into the Eastern Arctic Coast from the south Saturday there
is potential for near blizzard conditions to develop east of
Deadhorse impacting travel in the area.

West Coast and Western Interior...Quiet through most of the
weekend with offshore flow prevailing with partly cloudy skies. A
front will move through the Lower Yukon Delta Saturday and may
kick off a few showers, but no significant rainfall expected.
Winds generally northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts
to 25 mph along the coast possible. High temperatures in the upper
30s to low 50s, while lows will be 20s and 30s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Partly cloudy with some showers
mainly in the Alaska Range this evening. Increasing clouds
Friday morning with showers developing and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms developing in the late morning and continuing into
mid afternoon as they move to the northeast. Gusty winds this
afternoon will settle down this evening with variable winds to 10
mph through the weekend. The weekend looks pretty nice as high
temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s to
around 40.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Increasing clouds with
Isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers during the
afternoons and evenings as we move into the a seasonal
convection pattern in Interior Alaska. No significant change in
temperatures. The Arctic will generally be cloudy with periods of
fog and flurries and an occasional sunny break. For the West
Coast some showers possible inland and in the Lower Yukon Delta,
but generally offshore flow will be bringing slightly warmer
temperatures to the area and partly cloudy skies.

&&

.Fire Weather...A bit breezy in some locations today with
temperatures only rising into the low 60s. Similar temperatures
are expected through the weekend with Relative Humidity values in
the 20 to 40 percent range with good overnight recovery. Some
Isolate to scattered Thunderstorms possible Friday morning into
the afternoon in the Central and Eastern Interior, east of a line
from Tanana to Bettles, then quiet the remainder of the weekend.
A seasonal pattern developing next week with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms around the thermal trough in the Interior.

&&

.Hydrology...Breakup continues. The ice in Dawson YT went out this
morning and will be making its way down the Yukon River, while the
Koyukuk River observer in Bettles thinks the river will be going
out any day now there. The Tanana River at Tanana went out
yesterday and there is a long stretch of open water on the Yukon
near the mouth of the Tanana, but ice is still firmly in place
through Rampart Canyon. Ice on the Yukon River has lifted at
Ruby, but anchor ice is still in place, could go out this weekend.
Ice remains solid and lifted on the Porcupine with no signs of
movement. The ice continues to rot in place and has darkened
significantly in most areas over the past few days as the candling
process accelerates. The good news is that all the waterways are
running low at this time. As breakup continues things can change
rapidly so go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks, mobile.weather.gov, or
www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest Warnings, Advisories, and
forecasts.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAY 21