Brisk Wind Advisory 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

839 
FZAK52 PAFG 081238
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
338 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-090315-
338 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A trough of low pressure will remain over the West Coast through 
Fri night. A strong low will move into the Bering Sea tonight and
Sat.

$$

PKZ200-090315-
Norton Sound-
338 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-090315-
Dall Point to Wales-
338 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 40 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-090315-
Kotzebue Sound-
338 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-090315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
338 AM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NW winds 40 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 30 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

455 
FZAK52 PAFG 082347
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-091515-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A trough of low pressure will remain over the West Coast through 
tonight. A strong low will move across the southern Bering Sea 
tonight and Sat.

$$

PKZ200-091515-
Norton Sound-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-091515-
Dall Point to Wales-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 35 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. 
.MON...N winds 40 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 40 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 30 kt. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-091515-
Kotzebue Sound-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-091515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 8 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. 
.MON...N winds 35 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 35 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 30 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 25 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

441 
FZAK52 PAFG 091255
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-100330-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 960 mb low near Atka this morning will move to near Kodiak 
Island as a 962 mb low Sunday morning and will remain in place and
strengthen to 959 mb Monday morning. 


$$

PKZ200-100330-
Norton Sound-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-100330-
Dall Point to Wales-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 35 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 40 kt. 
.MON...N winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 30 kt. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-100330-
Kotzebue Sound-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

.TODAY...W winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-100330-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. 
.MON...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NW winds 30 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 25 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

834 
FZAK52 PAFG 092328
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
228 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-101515-
228 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 963 mb low near Nikolski will move to near Kodiak Island as a 
962 mb low Sun morning and will remain in place and strengthen to
959 mb Mon morning.

$$

PKZ200-101515-
Norton Sound-
228 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...N winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-101515-
Dall Point to Wales-
228 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...N winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-101515-
Kotzebue Sound-
228 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-101515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
228 PM AKST Sat Jan 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 25 kt. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

853 
FZAK52 PAFG 101257
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
357 AM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-110330-
357 AM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 964 mb low just south of Kodiak Island will remain in place and
strengthen to 959 mb Mon morning.

$$

PKZ200-110330-
Norton Sound-
357 AM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-110330-
Dall Point to Wales-
357 AM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NW winds 25 kt. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-110330-
Kotzebue Sound-
357 AM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-110330-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
357 AM AKST Sun Jan 10 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...E winds 25 kt. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
517 AM AKST Thu Jan 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The pattern will change very little over the next few days as a
series of weakening lows over the Gulf of Alaska crosses the
Alaska Range and moves north. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure
will keep snow threats over the West Coast and Western Interior.
Gap winds will remain gusty to 35-55 mph through the AK Range
gaps with a stout Tanana Valley Jet as well. Temps will remain
pretty normal over the Interior, with warmer temps at higher
elevations as inversions remain in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a rather deep 485 dam upper level trough with its upper
level center over Wrangel Island. The associated trough axis
stretches southward through the Bering Strait. There is another
weakening former strong low moving through the YK Delta which is
merging with the aforementioned upper level trough. The southerly
flow aloft over the Interior is also supporting a moderate lee
trough across the Alaska Range with gap winds pushing into the 50
mph range.

Model Discussion...
The models are in very good agreement with the general pattern,
but are in terrible agreement with each successive wave that
crosses the Alaska Range into the Interior through the weekend. A
blend of models was favored for this reason. We did shift the
snow band over the West Coast farther west as it is now pretty
clear that the deformation zone will be situated farther west, and
all the models clearly depict this. The Canadian was favored for
winds as it better depicts coastal winds. We used a blend for the
depicted AK Range gap winds and the Tanana Valley jet.

Central and Eastern Interior...
South flow aloft is in place and will remain in place for the
foreseeable future. This pattern will keep a stout Tanana Valley
Jet and bursts of strong Alaska Range southerly gap winds as
disturbances aloft pass over. Areas with winds in favored
locations as well as higher elevations will be several degrees
warmer than areas with inversions. The first disturbance will pass
through today, with a brief respite in winds across the AK Range
before the next system moves through Friday, bringing more strong
winds to the AK Range. Expect dry weather given this southerly
flow pattern, but there will be some chances for snow, especially
as one moves away from the Ak Range. However, any threats look
paltry and mostly relegated to the White Mountains northward.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A stationary arctic boundary will remain in place over the
region, keeping periodic threats for snow in place heading into
the weekend. The next threat will move from the YK Delta this
morning north through Norton Sound and then into Kotzebue Sound
and the Western Brooks. This will bring light snow accumulations
of 1-3" with a sharp cutoff to the west, with areas from Nome west
likely seeing little no snow snow accumulations. Light snow
threats will continue through the weekend as more disturbances
track over the stationary front. However, with light pressure
gradients through Saturday, no blowing snow threats are
anticipated except for this morning across the immediate Bering
coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Light snow threats will pass over the Northwest Arctic as a
stalled front remains in place. Expect a band of 1-3" of snow from
Point Lay to Barrow through Saturday as the frontal zone
oscillates back and forth over this area. There will be a brief
tightening of the pressure gradient along the Eastern Arctic
Friday which may allow for some local blowing snow. Otherwise,
expect periods of fog and flurries with low stratus to be the
normal mode.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The southerly flow barrage along the Gulf Coast continues through
the early part of next week. Several waves of energy Sunday
through Tuesday will lift north, keeping southerly gap winds and
a Tanana Valley Jet in place. Any threats for snow look rather
paltry for the Interior and will favor the North Slope. The
pattern really does not honestly change much as temps will remain
inverted in most lower elevations cold spots with warmer temps
aloft. The pattern for the first half of the week looks rather
banal with minimal impacts as the cold arctic air remains bottled
up over Siberia. The pattern looks to potentially become more
active the second half of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.

&&

AHSENMACHER JAN 21