Brisk Wind Advisory 50, NWS Fairbanks, AK

754 
FZAK51 PAFG 042353
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
253 PM AKST Thu Feb 4 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-051500-
253 PM AKST Thu Feb 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
High pressure continues to push SE over the coast from a 1054 mb 
high in the Siberian Arctic with a 1047 mb low developing over the
Arctic Plain. A trough is pushing W over the Central Arctic from 
the Beaufort Sea and will push W and SW to lie from a 1027 mb low 
in the Northern Beaufort Sea to just N of Utqiagvik Fri morning, 
then sweep SE over the Eastern Arctic Coast through Sat morning 
as the low moves to 100 nm SW of Banks Island. 

$$

PKZ225-051500-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
253 PM AKST Thu Feb 4 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-051500-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
253 PM AKST Thu Feb 4 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...NE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-051500-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
253 PM AKST Thu Feb 4 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-051500-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
253 PM AKST Thu Feb 4 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ245-051500-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
253 PM AKST Thu Feb 4 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

SDB Feb 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
346 PM AKST Wed Feb 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow continues to progress northward and eastward through
the Interior this afternoon south of the Yukon River and will
continue overnight into tomorrow morning. Amounts will range from
less than an inch north of Fairbanks to around 8" in the western
portions of Denali NP. Fairbanks can expect 1-2". Another front
will bring snow and blizzard conditions to St. Lawrence Island and
light snow to the west coast starting tomorrow and progressing
northward. The Arctic will remain cold through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...03/12z and 03/18z model solutions initialize well based
on observations. A deformation zone from the Seward Peninsula to
McGrath that has since absorbed into main features was slightly
tighter than models initialized. This favors a tighter, more
amplified band of snow as it progresses north and east overnight
tonight. The 12z ECMWF did the best job capturing this feature.
Models are in good agreement with minimal differences through
Friday afternoon before the GFS and NAM bring a 530 dam 500 mb
low into the Western Interior and over Southcentral respectively.
This pushes another wave of snow into the Central and Eastern
Interior while the ECMWF keeps most of the snow west of Minchumina
with a much weaker solution on this feature. Models realign by
late Saturday as northwest flow aloft engulfs most of the state
from a 497 dam low north of Kaktovik that becomes the dominant
feature aloft at 500mb.

Aloft...At 500mb, A 508 dam closed low lies over the Western
Arctic Plains with troughing extending westward over the Chukchi
Peninsula. Zonal westerly flow aloft persists south of the Brooks
Range. This troughing will be pushed eastward as a ridge pushes
north first over the west coast, then weakens slightly as it moves
over the Interior by Friday. A 495 dam upper level low will dive
southwest from the Canadian Archipelago on Saturday, bringing a
return to NW flow aloft over Northern Alaska. At 850mb, the -20 C
isotherm lies from near Fairbanks to Unalakleet to the AlCan
border. Warmer air will push north on Thursday over the West Coast
then over the Interior on Friday. Another surge of cold air begins
to push south from the Arctic on Sunday and looks to remain in
place through most of next week.

Surface...A 1055mb high centered over the high Arctic continues to
allow for northeast winds across most of Northern Alaska. This
feature will slowly weaken and move west, though as this happens a
1048mb high will form over the Arctic Plains on Thursday. A
1008mb low will move to Nunivak Island by Friday morning. By
Friday afternoon a 1026mb low drifts south out of the high arctic
to 500nm north of Nuiqsut, though a 1040mb high over the Yukon
Flats allows for a continued NE gradient over most of Northern
Alaska.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Very cold wind chills of 40 to 60
below will continue, though winds will be letting up some
overnight and into tomorrow. Patchy stratus and fog exists,
though no widespread bands currently exist in the area.
Temperatures will remain cold with highs in the 20 to 30 below
range and lows in the 25 to 45 below range for most areas. The
coldest temperatures will be in the plains with lows around 50
below and even approaching 55 below in some spots.

West Coast and Western Interior...Snow from Norton Sound to the
Yukon Delta on into the Central Interior mainly south of Galena will
taper off this evening and overnight from west to east. Another
round of snow will arrive at St. Lawrence Island and the Yukon
Delta late tomorrow morning. Blizzard conditions are expected over
St. Lawrence Island with this system through Thursday night. An
upper level low will bring snow to the Yukon Delta and area south
of Galena once again on Friday. Areas north of the Seward
Peninsula will remain mostly dry through the short-term.

Central and Eastern Interior...Light snow will progress eastward
overnight and into tomorrow morning before tapering off by
tomorrow afternoon. Accumulations will be heaviest in the western
portion of Denali National Park where up to 10 inches are
expected as westerly flow aloft provides favorable lifting off the
western Alaska Range. 2 to 5 inches are also expected from
Minchumina to McGrath. Fairbanks can expect 1-2 inches with areas
north and east receiving less. Skies will clear out behind the
snow with temperatures once again dropping into the 20s and 30s
below zero, though wind chill is not expected to be an issue with
this round of cold.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Day 4 Through 7...A front will bring snow to
the West Coast on Monday before progressing into the Interior
Monday night and Tuesday. There is increasing model agreement that
an upper level low will move from north of Kaktovik on Sunday to
over the Eastern Interior by the middle of next week. This will
bring gradually cooling temperatures and drying conditions to much
of the Interior with much below normal temperatures expected for
most of the area north of the Alaska Range.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ213.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

CHRIEST FEB 21