Brisk Wind Advisory 27, NWS Fairbanks, AK

488 
FZAK52 PAFG 210104
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
404 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-211530-
404 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong storm in the southern Bering Sea will move to the 
Chukotsk Peninsula as a 984 mb low by 3pm Thu, then to near 
Wrangel Island as a 1003 mb low by 3pm Fri. A second strong low
will move into the southeast Bering Sea on Fri and to the Yukon
Delta as a 1000 mb low by 3pm Sat. 

$$

PKZ200-211530-
Norton Sound-
404 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Snow. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.THU...SE winds 35 kt. Snow. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Snow.
.FRI...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-211530-
Dall Point to Wales-
404 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 40 kt becoming SE. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...S winds 40 kt. Snow. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. Snow. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-211530-
Kotzebue Sound-
404 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...E winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-211530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
404 PM AKST Wed Jan 20 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt increasing to 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less.
.THU...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
400 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stretching from NW Alaska to the SE Interior will
northeast tonight, and cause another 1-2 inches of snow over the
NE Interior and North Slope along with blowing snow over Steese
Highway Summits. There will be some breaks in the clouds southwest
of this front tonight and allow for patchy fog to form.

A weather front over the Eastern Bering Sea will move over SW
Alaska tonight and then to the Central Interior where it will
dissipate on Wed PM. Expect 1-2 inches of snow in the SW Interior
with this feature tonight and Wed, with just a chance of snow in
the Central Interior on Wed.

A strong storm south of Adak will move into the southern Bering
Sea by 3pm Wed, to the Bering Strait by 3pm Thu, then continuing
north and weakening. This will spread snow, easterly gales and
low visibility in blowing snow north along the West Coast Wed
night and Thu. This will also bring east winds 20-30 kt and
significant blowing snow to the North Slope Thu.

A trailing weather front that moves along the West Coast Wed
night, then over the Wrn Interior Thu, and back over the West
Coast Thu night and Fri. Expect significant snow along this
feature with 6 inches in most areas west of Galena, with up to 12
inches in the Nulato Hills. Will see areas of mixed precipitation
with possible freezing rain southwest of Galena Wed night into Thu
night.

Expect warm, windy and wet weather most of Northern Alaska through
this weekend, then cooler and drier next week.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over the Bering
Sea and NW Pacific and a strong ridge over the Eastern Pacific
and NW Canada. This pattern will retrograde and amplify by through
Thu as a series of deep short wave troughs move from Siberia east
over the NW Pacific. By Thu the very deep long wave trough will
be over the NW Pacific and Bering with the ridge over the Ern
Pacific north over Mainland Alaska. This long wave pattern will
persist into the weekend, with the trough expanding east over
Mainland AK around the middle of next week. This will bring
Northern Alaska into a much warmer, windier and wetter pattern
through early next week, then cooling and drying.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models verify well aloft at 12Z. Models show similar solutions
aloft through Fri, with differences in timing and location of
short waves developing over the weekend.

At 850 mb, temperatures cool today, then increase from late
tonight through Wed night. There are periods of above freezing 850
mb temps over the Interior SW of Fairbanks from Wed night through
Thu night, with above freezing temps moving over the Tanana
Valley Thu night and Fri. There will be possibility of mixed
precip in those areas with above 0C 850 temps.

With precipitation, models show similar location and amounts
through 3pm Wed. After that time, the GFS and ECMF agree fairly
well and areal coverage but differ on amounts. The NAM has areas
of higher amounts on Thu and Fri that are much further east than
the ECMF and GFS, while the GFS has significant precip Thu and Fri
over the far Wrn Interior and West Coast. Prefer to use a blend
of the GFS and ECMF for precip location, with the GFS for precip
amounts from Wed night into Fri.

At the surface at 15Z, models all verify well on most features
except the low near Howard Pass which is 2-4 mb deeper than models
show at 15Z. The NAM is deepest solution with this feature so we
will favor NAM winds through noon Wed. The NAM and GFS have
similar solutions at the surface from Wed noon through 9am Thu,
but the NAM has winds about 3 kt stronger along the Arctic and
West Coast. Prefer the NAM for its stronger winds through 9pm Thu.
For Thu night and Fri, the NAM keeps the frontal boundary further
east than the GFS/ECMF and Canadian solutions. Favor the GFS at
the surface with the frontal location from Thu night through Fri.

Bottom line for models is that we will use a combination of the
GFS/ECMF for temps, precip, clouds through Fri, with lean mainly
on the GFS for precip amounts. Will use the NAM winds through 9pm
Thu, then merge to the GFS winds for Thu night and Fri.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Sea levels will rise 2-3 ft south of the Bering Strait Wed night
and Thu but do not expect any flooding issues as ice extends 150
NM offshore and thus no wave action.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ220.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ215-
AKZ216.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

JB JAN 21