Brisk Wind Advisory 261, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
647 AM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

.Synopsis...
Much of Northern Alaska will remain in a warm and stormy westerly
flow pattern through Thu. The major winter storm that dropped
heavy snow, heavy rain, and heavy ice accumulation across the
Interior, along with widespread power outages, road closures,
localized flooding, and even some roof collapse, is now bringing
strong gusty west winds to the Eastern Interior along with periods
of light freezing rain, which will diminish this afternoon as the
storm moves east into Canada. This storm is also causing blizzard
conditions across the Eastern North Slope that will improve
tonight as the storm moves east.

A second storm, now in the Southern Bering Sea will move north
over the Southwest Alaska today and then north and east over the
Northwest Alaska and Central Interior tonight and Tuesday. This
will bring 4-6 inches of snow to most over the area southwest of
Fairbanks to Kotzebue with periods of freezing rain over the area
southwest of Nome to Mcgrath. This will bring Blizzard Conditions
to the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island today through Tue.

A third and stronger storm will move from the southern Bering Sea north
over the West Coast and Western Interior on Tue, and then move
east across Northern Alaska Tue night and Wed. This will bring
a mix of rain and snow to SW AK Tue into Wed, and 6-10 inches of
snow across NW Alaska and the Northern and Eastern Interior Tue
night and Wed.

Conditions are expected to cool below normal by the end of the
week.

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well and show similar solutions aloft through
Tue with slight differences into Wed. The ECMF pushes precip NE
much faster than the NAM and GFS on Tue night and Wed so we are
favoring a blend of the NAM and GFS for precip and temps. At 06Z,
models all verify about 5 mb too weak on the low in MacKenzie Bay.
For this reason we will keep winds stronger and for a long time
over NE Alaska than Models indicate. This will keep the Winter
storm and strong winds over the Eastern North Slope longer than
models indicate.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ203-AKZ206.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ218-
AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ240.
&&

JB DEC 21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
846 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 N EAGLE               64.79N 141.20W
12/26/2021  M17.0 INCH       SOUTHEAST FAIRBANKSAK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            OBSERVER REPORTS 17 INCHES OF VERY FLUFFY
            SNOW.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1042 AM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

AKZ219>225-282100-
Upper Koyukuk Valley-Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Including Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park,
Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
1042 AM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

...More Snow For the Interior Tuesday through Wednesday...

Another weather front will move into the Interior Tuesday
morning, with snow amounts of around 4 inches are expected for
the Fairbanks area, with higher amounts up to 6 inches possible
further south. Snow will taper off briefly Tuesday afternoon, then
a stronger front will bring more snow to the Interior Tuesday
evening into Wednesday. Additional accumulations around 6 inches
with higher amounts northeast of Fairbanks. Snow will taper off
to scattered snow showers Wednesday afternoon.

Motorists should prepare for difficult travel conditions,
especially on roads that have not been plowed from the recent
winter storm.

For the latest weather updates, visit www.weather.gov/fairbanks.