Brisk Wind Advisory 254, NWS Fairbanks, AK

637 
FZAK52 PAFG 241439
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
539 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-250315-
539 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure over Siberia will weaken as a 996 mb low moves from
the Western Aleutians Friday morning to the Gulf of Anadyr by 6am
Saturday.

$$

PKZ200-250315-
Norton Sound-
539 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow.
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Snow with rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Rain.
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Snow and rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-250315-
Dall Point to Wales-
539 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Snow and rain. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Snow and rain. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-250315-
Kotzebue Sound-
539 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Snow.
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-250315-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
539 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

891 
FZAK52 PAFG 250041
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
341 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-251530-
341 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A low in the Western Bering Sea will move into the southern 
Chukchi Sea as a 1003 mb low by 3pm Sat, and to near Demarcation 
Point as a 986 mb low by 3pm Sun. A weather front extending
southwest from this low will move along the Dateline by 3pm Sat, 
and then move inland over Alaska on Sun. 

$$

PKZ200-251530-
Norton Sound-
341 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Snow and freezing rain. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Freezing rain and snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Rain and freezing rain. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Rain with snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. 
.WED...SW winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-251530-
Dall Point to Wales-
341 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt becoming S. Snow and rain. Vsby 1 NM or
less.
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Freezing rain. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-251530-
Kotzebue Sound-
341 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Snow.
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-251530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
341 PM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
627 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Active weather continues with Winter Weather Advisories in effect
for snow, heavy at times, falling across the Central and Eastern
Interior this morning. Blizzard conditions will return to the
eastern Arctic Coast later today. The next in a series of storms
will move to the West Coast on Friday and into the Interior on
Saturday before another stronger storm moves to the West Coast on
Saturday night and to the Interior on Sunday. Strong winds, heavy snow,
blowing and drifting snow, and mixed precipitation are likely
widespread hazards with these across much of the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement on the placement and strength of
features at the surface and aloft through the short term forecast
period. Precipitation solutions begin to differ Saturday night
with the NAM spreading precipitation north and east much faster
than the GFS and the ECMWF. For this short term forecast package,
we will use a blend of models for precipitation, and trend toward
the NAM for winds. We'll mostly maintain continuity from the
previous forecast, though increase winds in the Eastern Arctic
later today and make minor adjustments to temperatures and
precipitation.

At the surface, models initialize well when compared to
observations. High pressure will build into the Interior this
afternoon behind the snow event. A 999 mb low NE of Barter Island
will slide slowly to the southeast as another low in the Arctic
weakens and moves west to 500 miles north of Nuiqsut by midnight
tonight. High pressure will dominate over the Interior on Friday.
A 999 mb low will move to the Gulf of Anadyr by midnight Friday
night and spread precipitation to the West Coast and into the
Interior. Another strong surface low will move to the Gulf of
Anadyr by Sunday morning, again spreading precipitation to most of
northern Alaska by Sunday afternoon. All of this moisture moving
north is being driven by a persistent 1040 mb high in the central
Pacific Ocean that is supported by an upper level ridge.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a ridge extending north from a 588 dam high in
the central Pacific Ocean will be the important upper level
feature for northern Alaska over the next few days. Models are
currently initializing this ridge 1-3 dam too weak over the
forecast area. The impact this has on the short term forecast is
that snow from the current weather system bringing snow to the
Central and Eastern Interior may be slower to depart the area
than what models indicate. Storm totals still look to be in line
though with the heaviest snow amounts of 8 to 13 inches near
Denali National Park. Elsewhere aloft, a 496 dam inverted trough
lies north of Kaktovik, with troughing extending northwest into
the high arctic. Moving into Thursday and through the weekend, the
inverted trough will slide to the southeast and allow the ridge
to move north and east over all of Mainland Alaska by Sunday
morning.

The aforementioned ridge building north will be favorable for a
plume of moisture originating near Hawaii to rotate around the top
of the ridge and through northern Alaska. This will bring very
warm air for this time of year as well. The bottom line is that
precipitation from the next series of storms will be a mixed bag
of rain, snow, and freezing rain, though many details are still
unclear.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Winds and blowing snow will
increase through the day today from Kuparuk east with blizzard
conditions expected at Barter Island through Friday morning.
Conditions will improve through the day Friday. Light amounts of
falling snow are also expected in this same area through tomorrow.
Expect north winds 20-30 mph through Brooks Range passes through
tonight. The next shot of snow will move to southwest of a line
from Utqiagvik to Atigun Pass by Saturday afternoon. Lows will be
mainly in the 20s and 30s below with highs in the teens below.

West Coast and Western Interior...Expect clearing over most of the
area today behind the system that brought snow. Strong southwest
winds in the Yukon Delta will taper off through the morning hours
today. The next system will bring a mixed bag of precipitation
types to the West Coast south of the Bering Strait and Lower
Yukon Valley on Friday morning. Precipitation will likely start as
snow but transition to rain from Kotzebue south and as far inland
as McGrath by Sunday morning. Some freezing rain also possible.
Yet another system will move to St. Lawrence Island Saturday night
and to the West Coast starting Sunday morning and spreading
inland. Temperatures will trend warmer with highs near freezing
from Nome south by Saturday and possibly in the 40s in the Yukon
Delta.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow will taper off for most areas
this morning but persist along the Alaska Range through this
afternoon. Expect storm totals of 4 to 6 inches near Fairbanks and
8 to 13 inches along the Parks Highway near Denali National Park. Some
clearing is expected tonight and tomorrow with lows in the teens
below except in the 20s and 30s below north of the Yukon River.
Highs will be in the single digits above and below south of the
Yukon River, but in the teens and 20s below to the north. Snow
returns Saturday morning as the next in a series of storms systems
moves into the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The storm system arriving
Saturday night may push water through cracks in the ice along
most of the West Coast on Sunday.

Extended Forecast of Days 4 Through 7...Long range models continue
to slowly come into agreement on details for an impactful storm
moving through the Interior Sunday through Monday morning. The
storm will bring heavy snow, strong winds, blowing and drifting
snow. Beyond this storm, models show another storm in the
Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe that could bring more heavy
precipitation and strong winds to a large portion of northern
Alaska.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ240.
&&

CHRIEST DEC 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
155 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

AKZ218>225-250200-
Southeastern Brooks Range-Upper Koyukuk Valley-
Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-Central Interior-
Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Including Arctic Village, Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp,
Iniakuk Lake, Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park,
Carlo Creek, and Kantishna
155 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

...Major Winter Storm Late This Weekend...

A strong weather front is expected to push east across northern
Alaska over the weekend, with significant winter storm impacts
beginning on Sunday and lasting into early next week for the
Interior.

An initial front will bring light snow across the Interior on
Saturday, with 1 to 2 inches of accumulations through Saturday
night. Heavy snow will then push in from the west beginning on
Sunday morning and last through Sunday night before dissipating.

Snow accumulations exceeding one foot for the Fairbanks area is
not out of the question at this point. Additionally, there is a
chance that snow will transition to rain as far east as Fairbanks
Sunday night into Monday, but confidence remains low of this
possibility at this time. Expect strong west winds to develop
Sunday afternoon, resulting in significant blowing and drifting
snow across the Interior going into Monday.

Residents should take proper precautions to ensure safety in
preparation for any holiday travel over the weekend. Stay tuned to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks as we continue to monitor changes to the
outlook throughout the weekend.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
226 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

AKZ207>217-227-250200-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Lower Yukon Valley-Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Noatak,
Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Kotzebue, Selawik, Noorvik, Buckland,
Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, Pilgrim Springs,
Serpentine Hot Springs, Taylor, Nome, White Mountain, Golovin,
Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, Shaktoolik,
Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, Diomede,
Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, Pilot Station,
St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, Pitkas Point,
Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik, Flat,
Galena, Nulato, Huslia, Kaltag, Ruby, Koyukuk, Ambler, Shungnak,
Kobuk, McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
226 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

...Major Winter Storm This Weekend...

A strong surface low pressure is expected to develop in the
Bering Sea on Saturday, posing another significant winter storm
threat across the West Coast and Western Interior beginning
Saturday and lasting through Sunday night.

This storm will bring a strong push of moisture and warmer air
that will result in snow, freezing rain, and rain across areas of
the West Coast and Western Interior from the Seward Peninsula
south during this time period. Heavy snow, significant blowing
and drifting snow, and strong winds are expected further inland.
The Chukchi Sea Coast east through the Upper Kobuk and Noatak
Valleys will receive anywhere from 8 to 14 inches of snow, with
winds gusting anywhere from 35 to 50 mph from Saturday afternoon
through Sunday night.

Residents should take proper precautions to ensure safety in
preparation for any holiday travel over the weekend. Stay tuned to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks as we continue to monitor changes to the
outlook throughout the weekend.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
227 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

AKZ201>206-250200-
Western Arctic Coast-Northern Arctic Coast-
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Northwestern Brooks Range-Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, Cape Lisburne,
Utqiagvik, Alaktak, Pitt Point, Nulavik, Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay,
Alpine, Deadhorse, Kuparuk, Kaktovik, Flaxman Island, Singiluk,
Umiat, Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon,
and Franklin Bluffs
227 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

...Major Winter Storm This Weekend...

A strong surface low pressure is expected to develop in the
Bering Sea on Saturday, posing another significant winter storm
threat across the North Slope and Brooks Range beginning Sunday
and lasting into early next week.

Heavy snow, significant blowing and drifting snow, and strong
winds are expected during this time period, particularly from
Utqiagvik west. Snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches are possible
at this point, with easterly winds gusting to 50 mph along the
northwest Arctic Coast.

Residents should take proper precautions to ensure safety in
preparation for any holiday travel over the weekend. Stay tuned to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks as we continue to monitor changes to the
outlook throughout the weekend.