Brisk Wind Advisory 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

630 
FZAK52 PAFG 200051
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
351 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-201530-
351 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 996 mb low near Cape Lisburne will move to 100 NM north of Cape
Lisburne as a 1010 mb low by 3am Wed, then weaken. A weather front 
over the Eastern Bering Sea will move over SW Alaska tonight and 
then move inland and dissipate on Wed. A strong storm south of 
Adak will move into the southern Bering Sea by 3pm Wed, to the 
Bering Strait as a 989 mb low by 3pm Thu, and to near Wrangel 
Island as a 1003 mb low by 3pm Fri. 

$$

PKZ200-201530-
Norton Sound-
351 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Snow and rain. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-201530-
Dall Point to Wales-
351 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-201530-
Kotzebue Sound-
351 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-201530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
351 PM AKST Tue Jan 19 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Jan 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
248 PM AKST Mon Jan 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
More southerly flow aloft today as a powerful hurricane force low
in the Gulf of Alaska has made "landfall" along the North Gulf
Coast and is moving inland. This is promoting strong chinook
warming and a strong easterly wind across the entirety of the
Tanana Valley. Temps have rocketed up into the 30s F across parts
of Fairbanks, with some areas nearing 40 F in town. Out west,
snow is falling from the YK Delta to the Northwest Arctic as an
arctic trough over the Bering Strait supports a quasi-stationary
frontal zone. The snow over the West Coast will shift east across
the Interior through tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
A very impressive atmospheric river stretching from south of
the Hawaiian Islands is supporting a powerful cyclone over the
Gulf of Alaska which is pushing inland along the Gulf Coast this
afternoon. Strong east winds over the Tanana Valley have pushed
temps over many Interior locations to the 30s F and even higher.
The low, analyzed around 968 mb in the Gulf of Alaska, is already
moving inland. There is another inverted surface trough across
the Lower Yukon/Middle Yukon Valley with a broad area of light
snow associated with southerly flow from Bristol Bay. Easterly
winds remain over the North Slope as a strong high latitude
surface high dominates the arctic flow.

Model Discussion...
The numerical models are in very good agreement with the current
low moving inland, the snow through Tuesday, and the next two
fronts including a strong low on Thursday which will impact the
West Coast. A blend of all models was favored.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Strong Tanana Valley winds are blowing which has pushed temps
into the 30s across a wide swath of the Valley and even parts of
the local hills and White Mountains. Strong winds continue to blow
through Delta Junction, too. These winds are also keeping much of
the Interior mostly dry with snow expected to move into the White
Mountains and higher elevations of the Dalton Highway this
evening and tonight. Blowing and drifting snow is possible,
although the temps in low 30s will likely limit this.

The front lifts north tonight into the Yukon Flats and Upper
Koyukuk Valley then weakens. The next phase moves into the
Interior Tuesday as cold air advection and southwest winds move
in, bringing in light accumulating snow everywhere, including the
Tanana Valley which has been in a minor snow drought for two
months. Accumulations will be light, however, with generally less
than 1-2" everywhere, higher over the higher elevations and
southwest facing aspects. Southwest winds of 20-30 mph will likely
result in some blowing and drifting snow before waning Tuesday
night. Weak colder high pressure settles in Tuesday night with a
return to more south gap winds in the AK Range and slightly
warming temps on Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Snow is falling across much of the region as an arctic trough
slowly shifts east. Blowing snow is also occurring along the
immediate Bering Coast where north winds to 35 mph continue to
blow. Snow will be heaviest over the Lower/Middle Yukon and
Nulato Hills before it tapers off and shifts east by Tuesday
evening.

A quick hitting front will move into the YK Delta/Lower Yukon on
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, then quickly fizzle out as it
moves north into Norton Sound. Expect up to 1-2", mainly over the
Lower Yukon/Delta before snow tapers off Wednesday evening.

A much stronger low will move into the Bering Sea and push a warm
front up along the West Coast Wednesday evening and overnight,
bringing more snow and this time quite a bit of wind, too. Thus,
expect the threat for blowing and drifting snow to be rather
widespread, but details yet need to to be worked out with this
system. Yet another warm low will move into the region sometime
Thursday, bringing another surge of warmer air and mixed precip.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Light snow and blowing snow will continue over the Western Arctic
as a front remains stalled over the Lisburne Peninsula. The
gradient tightens a little tonight so the normal blowholes like
Point Lay and Wainright will likely see a bit more blowing and
drifting snow. The front lifts offshore and winds weaken over the
whole Arctic coast Tuesday night. Light snow will be a chance on
and off thereafter as a a couple weakening shortwave troughs move
across the area. Expect otherwise normal weather with areas of fog
and stratus. Elsewhere, some light snow will fall over Atigun
Pass area of the Brooks Range tonight and tomorrow with light
accumulations anticipated.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Beginning Thursday night, a warm and moisture rich low will be
moving north up the West Coast as a broad trough stretches from
the North Pacific to the Bering Strait. Stormy weather will mainly
be over the West Coast and Interior with strong southerly gap
winds off the AK Range keeping the Central/Eastern Interior on
the drier side. Some snow threats will move through the Interior
by the weekend. UNcertainty grows high early next week as the
models are uncertain if the storm track remains over the Bering
Sea or remains farther south.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

JAN 21