Brisk Wind Advisory 249, NWS Fairbanks, AK

016 
FZAK51 PAFG 202157
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1257 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-211500-
1257 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 983 mb low 100 nm N of Wrangel Island will move SE to 100 nm NW
of Wainwright Tue morning with low pressure extending E. High 
pressure will build over the Arctic Plain. The low will move to 
100 nm N of Utqiagvik Tue afternoon with strong NW winds W of 
Utqiagvik. The low will merge with a 996 mb low 300 nm N of 
Demarcation Point Tue night as strong W to NW winds develop 
across the area. 

$$

PKZ225-211500-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
1257 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 30 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-211500-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
1257 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 30 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-211500-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
1257 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-211500-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
1257 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-211500-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
1257 PM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 30 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. 
.WED...W winds 35 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 5 kt.  

$$

SDB Dec 21

518 
FZAK51 PAFG 211408
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-220330-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 994 mb low 250 nm northeast of Wrangel Island will continue to 
push south and east and will weaken to 1006 mb as it passes just 
north of Point Barrow this afternoon and is absorbed by a 999 mb 
low forecasted to be located 250 nm north west of Banks Island on
Wednesday morning.

$$

PKZ225-220330-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-220330-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-220330-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-220330-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-220330-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
508 AM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

031 
FZAK51 PAFG 212329
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
229 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-221515-
229 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
Low pressure across the Arctic will push to the east with a 1001
mb low 300 NM NE of Kaktovik by Wed night. High pressure will
build across the Arctic Plains by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ225-221515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
229 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 5 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-221515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
229 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-221515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
229 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-221515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
229 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-221515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
229 PM AKST Tue Dec 21 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

007 
FZAK51 PAFG 221354
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-230315-
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 997 mb low 200 nm north of Demarcation Point will continue to
weaken while drifting slowly south through Thursday. High 
pressure will build across the Arctic Plains by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ225-230315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-230315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 40 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-230315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 35 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-230315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-230315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
454 AM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 35 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

805 
FZAK51 PAFG 222358
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-231515-
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1000 mb low 350 nm north of Demarcation Point will continue to 
weaken while drifting slowly south through Thursday. A 1020 mb
high will build across the Arctic Plains by Thu morning and
persist into Fri.

$$

PKZ225-231515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Snow.
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-231515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 40 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-231515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 35 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-231515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-231515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
258 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 35 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

126 
FZAK51 PAFG 231435
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
535 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-240330-
535 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1000 mb low 400 NM northeast of Kaktovik will move east and 
weaken through Friday morning. A 1012 mb low will move to 500 
NM north of Utqiagvik by Friday afternoon. High pressure across 
the Arctic Plain will build to 1035 mb over the Eastern Brooks 
Range by Friday afternoon.

$$

PKZ225-240330-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
535 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.SUN...NE winds 30 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-240330-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
535 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...NE winds 35 kt. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-240330-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
535 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-240330-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
535 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-240330-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
535 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
452 AM AKST Mon Dec 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Major storm system has moved into the state and will
impact most of the forecast area into Monday before it starts
improving in the west. Heavy snow in the Interior tonight and
Monday. Rain from the Seward Peninsula south will transition back
to snow tonight. Winds on the West Coast trending down overnight,
while in the Arctic they will trend down Monday. Elevated water
levels on the West Coast will be trending down this evening. See
the latest Warnings, Watches, and Advisories at
www.weather.gov/fairbanks for details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...19/12Z solutions continue to be uncooperative with the
ongoing storm that is impacting most of the forecast area already.
All of the solutions missed on the timing of the precipitation
as it moved in. Hopefully the will not miss on the snowfall
amounts. They did have a decent handle on temperatures in the
southwest areas where it warmed above freezing and rain is
falling. Solutions have temperatures slowly moderating back below
freezing with precipitation returning to snow to the southwest of
Fairbanks. Current solutions are showing a slight chance of rain
overnight extending northeast to Fairbanks, but it is very slight
at this time. With the surge of warm air there has been a mix of
precipitation and going forward that will be the challenge through
Monday, but chances of rain decrease with time as those
temperatures moderate. Since the system cam in faster, will be
trending the heavy snow down a bit sooner, but still expecting
light snow into Tuesday morning before it tapers off. Will go with
a blend of solutions as they are similar, but will kick the
probabilities up to categorical across most of the forecast area
again today. Solutions finally agree on precipitation amounts so
will also use a blend for the remainder of the event. Snow ration
will range from around 8/1 to 15/1 for most areas. Warm
temperatures will keep rain from freezing on power lines and most
objects. Rain will be falling into snow in most areas, but in
areas without snow, rain is expected to freeze as it contacts the
frozen ground.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridge axis extends northeast over Kodiak
Island to Tanana to Utqiagvik and north. A 486 dam low has moved
over Siberia with a trough extending northeast over Wrangel Island
then south over the Bering Strait to the Central Aleutians. A
second trough extends from the low southeast over the Gulf of
Anadyr, then south over the Dateline. Monday morning the ridge
axis will be over Prince William Sound to Delta Junction to
Demarcation Point then north. The trough pushing into the ridge
extend east from 486 dam low near Wrangel Island over the Chukchi
Sea and nearshore waters to Deadhorse, then south over Fairbanks
to the Shelikof Strait. Second trough will extend from the low
over the Chukchi Sea to Point Lay, then south to Selawik and
Anvik. Strong southwest flow will extend from the Northwest
Pacific over the Bering Sea into the Eastern Interior. Another
shortwave will develop near the Dateline over the Bering Sea
Monday morning. Monday afternoon a weakening ridge axis will be
over the AlCan as the second trough is over the Eastern Interior
pushing over it. The low near Wrangel Island will be 100 nm
northeast of the island. The trough that developed over the
Dateline will come in phase with another trough moving around the
low and move over the West Coast as the flow aloft turns a little
more from the west. At 850 hpa...-10C isotherm has been pushed
north of the Brooks Range and the -20C isotherm is well north of
the Arctic Coast. The 0C isotherm is over the Lower Yukon Delta
Seward Peninsula, and Kotzebue Sound. As the ridge aloft continues
to rotate to the east the tongue of warmer temperatures will
moderate and pull back to the southwest tonight. By Monday
afternoon the 0C isotherm will be south of Anchorage as cooler
temperatures are pushed southeast over the state with the -10C
isotherm from Prudhoe Bay to Ambler to Gambell, and the -20C
isotherm moving over the northwest Arctic Coast.

Surface...Broad low pressure across mainland Alaska. High
pressure extends west across the Arctic from a 1028 mb high near
Banks Island, and high pressure over the North Pacific extends
north over Bristol Bay and the southwest mainland. A 1015 mb low
is in the Northern Gulf of Alaska, while a 1015 mb low has
developed in the Arctic Plain and a 1015 mb low associated with
the decaying front moving across the state is near Kotzebue Sound.
A 962 mb low has moved into the Northwest Bering Sea with a
trailing 970 mb low just moving into the Southwest Bering Sea.
A weather front extends east along 60N. Sunday morning high
pressure will remain over the Arctic with a 1032 mb high in the
Beaufort Sea, while high pressure to the south will extend
northeast over Cook Inlet, then east to the Upper Tanana Valley in
the Yukon. The lows over the state will weaken and move east,
while the low in the Northwest Bering Sea will move into Chukotka
west of the Gulf of Anadyr at 975 mb as the front moves to lie
from the Bering Strait to Kodiak City. The trailing low will be in
the Western Bering Sea at 971 mb. Sunday afternoon high pressure
will hold to the southeast over the Copper River Basin, and over
the Northeast Arctic with the 1035 mb high in the Beaufort Sea.
Low in Chukotka will move near Wrangel Island at 975 mb and the
front will lie across Wainwright to Delta Junction. Southwest flow
will extend from the North Pacific into the Central Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Front has moved into the western
areas and will march across the area to the eastern areas by
Monday afternoon. Snow spreading east with accumulation of 1 to 3
inches. Blowing snow will reduce visibility to less than one half
mile at times. Winds in the coastal areas will swing around from
east and southeast at 15 to 35 mph this afternoon to southwest
overnight and increase to 30 to 40 mph and gusty on the northwest
coast, and 15 to 25 mph from Utqiagvik east. Cape Lisburne winds
are south gusting to 70 mph this afternoon and will also swing
around to southwest 30 to 40 mph. Patchy fog. Improving conditions
behind the front, but it will also usher in cooler weather.
Lows overnight around zero to teens above, while highs Monday
will range from around 10 above to near 30 above.

West Coast and Western Interior...Rain reported as far north as
Kivalina today and east into the Middle Yukon Valley. Snow for the
remainder of the area. Expect rain to transition back to snow, but
there is a slight chance of freezing rain in the Upper Kuskokwim
Valley overnight and early Monday. Sill expecting snowfall ranging
up to a foot along the south slopes of the Brooks Range, while
areas that transition back to snow will see 2 to 5 inches of
accumulation. Locally blowing snow, in areas that do not receive
rain, will impact visibility. Southeast to southwest winds will
turn more from the south to west through the night as they
diminish to 10 to 25 mph. There will be some clearing by afternoon
Monday along the coast in and in the Chukchi Sea region, then in
the evening in the inland areas. Temperatures will remain
relatively warm overnight, but will be trending cooler with low in
the 20s to mid 30s. Highs Monday will be in the morning as
temperatures will be cooling through the day.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow moved in a bit sooner than
anticipated, but is still expected to continue into Tuesday
morning. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect. Band of heavier
snowfall expected overnight, with light snow late in the day
Monday to Tuesday morning. The continues to be a chance of
freezing rain from Fairbanks west with most likely area west of
Nenana. Some blowing snow on summits as winds above treeline kick
up to around 20 mph and gusty, and also near the Alaska and
Brooks Range passes where winds will gust up to 50 mph. For the
remainder of the area winds variable to 10 mph through Monday
morning, then winds turn from the southwest to 15 mph. Lows
overnight will range from zero to near 30 above. Monday
temperatures will generally be falling through the day so the
midnight temperatures tonight may be the high for Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Models are struggling a bit
with the extended periods, but they continue to indicate another
moisture laden system will move to the West Coast Wednesday, then
into the southern Interior with another round of potentially
heavy snow. This may impact travel over the Christmas Holiday
weekend. A series of moisture laden systems will continue to move
across the area into next week with significant snowfall
potential with each system. Temperatures falling into the 20 below
to 35 below range Thursday, then warming back to climatological
normals.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-
AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ220-AKZ227.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ225.

&&

SDB DEC 21