Brisk Wind Advisory 233, NWS Fairbanks, AK

150 
FZAK52 PAFG 091256
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
356 AM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-100300-
356 AM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
Low pressure will persist over the Chukchi Sea, while a 979 mb 
low near St Lawrence Island with a front extending E through
Norton Sound weakens and moves SE today. High pressure will push 
E over the Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, and Bering Sea this evening
with strong north winds. 

$$

PKZ200-100300-
Norton Sound-
356 AM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-100300-
Dall Point to Wales-
356 AM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. Snow showers.
Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Snow showers.
Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow. Snow showers.
Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Snow
showers. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...NE winds 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-100300-
Kotzebue Sound-
356 AM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...NW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-100300-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
356 AM AKST Thu Dec 9 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY 
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt increasing to 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...NW winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. 
.MON...N winds 25 kt.  

$$

SDB Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
435 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Active weather pattern continues across the forecast
area, but systems are not as strong as this past few days. Low in
the Arctic will continue to bring some snow to the Western Arctic,
while another low moving across the Bering Sea is sending a
weather front to the Lower Yukon Delta this morning that will
slowly move up the coast and into the Western Interior through
tonight as it slowly dissipates. Temperatures will be cooling
slowly the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...08/00Z solutions in generally good agreement, though
they are struggling a bit with the details in the progressive
pattern. Good agreement continues through short term before the
solutions really start to struggle late in the midrange and
extended periods. Will be using a general blend of the solutions
for the short term and leaning on the Ensemble means for the
extended periods.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 492 dam low is holding on 200 nm northwest
of Point Lay with a shortwave extending southeast over Nenana. The
shortwave will move east this morning to be over Delta Junction by
noonish, and near the AlCan Border by mid afternoon as the low
remains quasi stationary. A transient ridge extends from the Kenai
Peninsula northwest over Norton Sound and the Chukotsk Peninsula
this morning and will weaken as it moves to lie from the Copper
River Basin to the Seward Peninsula by this evening. A 487 dam low
over the Northern Kamchatka Peninsula has a trough extending east
over the Bering Sea, then southeast over the Lower Yukon Delta
and Kodiak Island. Thursday morning the low will persist just
north of Point Lay at 493 dam, while the low over the Kamchatka
Peninsula will move over the Northern Bering Sea at 491 dam. A 504
dam low will develop along a trough over the Pribilofs. Weak
ridging will be hanging on over the Eastern Interior and Upper
Yukon Flats, with a decaying trough over St Lawrence Island to
Yakutat. At 850 hpa...Temperatures range from around -10C to
around -20C today and will generally be cooling to -20C to -25C by
Friday.

Surface...Weak high pressure has moved over the Interior with low
pressure all around this morning. The high pressure will slowly
move east as 980 mb low remains quasi stationary just northwest of
Wainwright. A decaying front is moving across the area and will
continue to dissipate. Another front associated with a 980 mb low
in the Northern Bering Sea is moving to the Lower Yukon Delta
today and will slowly move northeast up the coast and into the
Western Interior. Snow spreading north along with the front. The
front will stall just south of the Kobuk Basin and dissipate
Thursday, but not before bringing some flurries to the Central
Interior south of Bettles. Thursday morning a fast moving 966 mb
low will move to the Pribilofs, and by Thursday afternoon it will
be over King Salmon at 958 mb. Leeside troughing developing north
of the Alaska Range, and high pressure in the Copper River Basin
will produce a strong pressure gradient across the Alaska Range
with gusty south winds developing near passes west of the Tok
Cutoff. The low will eventually move into Prince William Sound
Friday morning at 958 mb with a broad area of low pressure over
the state extending north over the Arctic.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A low in the Western Arctic will
continue to spin clouds and flurries into the Northwest and
Central Arctic Coast, while decaying front will bring some
flurries to areas east of Deadhorse. Southwest winds along the
coast 15 to 25 mph will be diminishing and turning more from the
south. Variable winds to 10 mph in the plains, while south winds
around 10 mph will prevail in the Brooks Range. Highs today in the
single digits above and below, while lows tonight will range from
the single digits below along the coast to the teens below in the
plains and Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...A weather front will move to the
lower Yukon Delta this morning, then slowly work its way up the
West Coast and into the Western Interior. The front will move
north to the Kobuk Valley as it dissipates Thursday. A strong low
moving through Bristol Bay Thursday will bring some snow to the
Lower Yukon Valley south of Kaltag, and the Upper Kuskokwim
Valley, Thursday afternoon. Strong north winds developing in the
Chukchi Sea and Northeastern Bering Sea Thursday will bring snow
squalls to St Lawrence Island and potential for Freezing Spray.
Winds on the Capes and St Lawrence Island will increase to 20 to
30 mph and gusty. Ice has broken up some on the coast, and with
falling temperatures freezing spray may be lofted onshore. Winds
in the remainder of the coastal areas 10 to 20 mph and gusty,
while moving inland winds will be less than 10 mph. Snowfall
amounts will range from around an inch at Huslia to around 4
inches in the Lower Yukon Delta. Lesser amounts expected north of
Huslia. Highs today range from the single digits below in the
northern areas to near 30 above in the Lower Yukon Delta. Lows
tonight will range from around 20 below around Noatak to around 15
above in the Lower Yukon Delta.

Central and Eastern Interior...Flurries tapering off this morning,
but skies will remain mostly cloudy. More flurries Wednesday
night, from Fairbanks west and south of Bettles, as a decaying
weather front moves into the Central Interior. Temperatures will
be cooling the remainder of the week. Winds variable to 10 mph
except near the Alaska Range passes Thursday afternoon when they
will kick up to 15 to 35 mph gusting near 50 mph. Highs today in
the Single digits above with lows tonight falling to 5 below to 20
below.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A push of cold air southeast
into the Central and Eastern Interior Saturday night will bring
falling temperatures as skies clear after some light snow Saturday
night and Sunday morning. Temperatures will fall into the 20s and
30s below Monday and Tuesday. Increasing chances of snow east of
Galena by Tuesday afternoon. Western areas will remain partly
cloudy with cooler temperatures through the extended periods. The
Arctic will see clearing skies and falling temperatures Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ220.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235.

&&

SDB DEC 21