Brisk Wind Advisory 226, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
327 PM AKST Sat Dec 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A very active weather pattern continues into early next week. A
very strong storm will impact the West Coast Sunday and into
Monday with very strong winds, blizzard conditions as well as
elevated water levels with water pushing up onto the ice in many
coastal locations. Heavy snow and blowing snow is expected over
much of the Western Interior as well as the the Western Brooks
Range. The bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill values over
the Central and Eastern Interior will improve as temperatures rise
ahead of the West Coast Storm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
A negatively tilted upper level trough anchored by a 486 dam low
over the Gulf of Anadyr with strong ridge over the ALCAN border
will slowly push to the east with the upper level low pushing east
to near the Bering Strait by Monday and the upper level ridge
pushing east into the Yukon. This strong upper level trough and
favorable upper level dynamics will generate ideal conditions for
rapid cyclogenisis over the Western and Central Bering Strait
Sunday and Monday and will be the primary driver of the 950 mb low
that is expected to push into the Northern Bering Sea and through
the Bering Strait on Monday. The upper level trough will continue
to push to the east and will be centered over the Eastern
Interior by Wednesday as a weak ridge builds over the Central
Bering Sea. Upper level high pressure ridge builds north over the
Northern Pacific as cold upper level low remains just north of
Alaska which will continue to bring zonal flow over Northern
Alaska well into next week and will provide a series of storms
moving rapidly from west to east over Northern Alaska but will
also provide warmer temperatures than has recently been observed.
Much colder temperatures are expected to push back into northern
Alaska by the end of this next week.

Model Discussion...
The 04/12z model suite initialized relatively well against the
12z surface analysis as well as the upper level observations other
than heights generally not low enough over Northern Alaska and
Siberia. The models suite verified well against the 18z surface
analysis. Model spread remains reasonable in the short and well as
the mid range with expected levels of spread in the long range.
All models continue to indicate a very strong storm with central
pressures dropping into the 950 to 955 range over the Western
Bering Sea that will push northeast through the Bering Strait
through Monday. A strong front moving northeast ahead of the low
will produce a second round of widespread blizzard conditions for
the West Coast of Alaska and heavy snow and blowing snow over
much of the Western Interior and Western Brooks Range beginning
tonight on St Lawrence Island and through the day along the West
Coast. Elevated water levels are expected with Coast Flood Warning
issued for the Yukon Delta area, and Coastal Flood Advisories or
Coastal Flood Watches issued for the rest of the coast through the
Bering Strait and along the Chukchi Sea Coast.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Relative calm this evening before the storm roles in later tonight
and on Sunday. A low pressure system in the Western Bering Sea is
expected to deepen rapidly tonight passing just west of St
Lawrence Sunday Morning and through the Bering Strait Monday
Morning. Very strong wind gusts in excess of 70 mph will combine
with 6 to 12 inches of snowfall producing severe blizzard
conditions along the entire West Coast on Sunday. The heavy snow
and wind will continue to push inland into the Western Interior
and Western Brooks Range on Sunday where Winter Storm Warnings
have been issued. Heavy snow is expected to push into the Central
Interior and Central Brooks Range late Sunday and into Monday.

The very strong winds and favorable fetch from the southwest will
produce sea level rises of 3 to 6 feet above normal high tides.
Low lying areas will see minor flooding. Ice could pile up on the
beach. Boats or other property in low lying areas could be
damaged. Water could flow up through cracks in the ice causing
ponding of water on shorefast ice. A Coastal Flood Warning has
been issued for the Yukon Delta and Coastal Flood Watches remain
in effect for the Eastern Portions of Norton Sound and along the
Chukchi Sea Coast. Coastal Flood Advisories cover all other
coastal areas south of Point Hope except for Kotzebue Sound.
Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert for rising
water and take actions to protect life and property. Preparations
for the storm need to be completed quickly before the storm hits
tonight.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Clouds continue to pour into the area from the west with
temperatures expected to rise in most locations tonight over the
Central Interior and not drop as cold tonight in the Eastern
Interior. Heavy snow and blowing snow over higher terrain will
push into the Central Interior as well as the Central Brooks Range
Sunday afternoon mainly north and west of Tanana and Bettles.
Atigun Pass along the Dalton Highway is expected to receive
nearly a foot of snow with this system. Winter Storm Watches have
been upgraded to Warnings in these areas. Locations south and east
of Tanana to Bettles will receive much less snow with drying
downslope winds off of the Alaska Range limiting precipitation.
Snow and wind will increase however through the Central and
Eastern Alaska Range mainly to the South of Denali Park entrance
in zone 225 and to the south of Black Rapids Glacier in zone 226
where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Very cold wind
chill values are expected to continue through tonight and Sunday
morning near Eagle where winds continue to drain down the Yukon
Valley. A wind chill advisory remains in effect for this area.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow and blowing snow continue to reduce visibility at times as
low as one quarter mile to the west of Point Lay. Expect
conditions improve later tonight as winds diminished, however
mush strong winds and light falling snow Sunday will reduce
visibilities to one half mile or less over mush of the Arctic
Coast to the west of Point Barrow. A Winter Weather Advisory
issued for ongoing low visibility will continue into Monday. Winds
and falling snow will also increase late tonight and Sunday in
the Northeastern Brooks Range and adjacent plains with low
visibilities in snow and blowing snow expected to develop Sunday
afternoon. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this
area. Continue to monitor for possibility for strong winds,
blowing snow and low visibilities developing Sunday night along
the Arctic Coast to the east of Prudhoe Bay.

Coastal Hazard Potential... The very strong winds and favorable
fetch from the southwest will produce sea level rises of 3 to 6
feet above normal high tides. Low lying areas will see minor
flooding. Ice could pile up on the beach. Boats or other property
in low lying areas could be damaged. Water could flow up through
cracks in the ice causing ponding of water on shorefast ice. A
Coastal Flood Warning has been issued for the Yukon Delta and
Coastal Flood Watches remain in effect for the Eastern Portions of
Norton Sound and along the Chukchi Sea Coast. Coastal Flood
Advisories cover all other coastal areas south of Point Hope
except for Kotzebue Sound. Coastal residents in the warned area
should be alert for rising water and take actions to protect life
and property. Preparations for the storm need to be completed
quickly this evening before the storm hits later tonight.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ214.

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ224.

Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ207-AKZ212.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ206-AKZ221-AKZ225-AKZ226-
AKZ227.

Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Gale Warning for PKZ215-PKZ230.

Storm Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC DEC 21