Brisk Wind Advisory 225, NWS Fairbanks, AK

029 
FZAK52 PAFG 041420
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
520 AM AKST Sat Dec 4 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-050330-
520 AM AKST Sat Dec 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A strong weather front along the West Coast of Alaska will weaken
and move east today. A low just west of Shemya will move to the 
Western Bering Sea as a 966 MB low by 3pm Sat, to 150 NM west of 
Gambell as a 956 mb low by 3pm Sun, and to near Cape Lisburne as a
975 mb low by 3pm Mon. 

$$

PKZ200-050330-
Norton Sound-
520 AM AKST Sat Dec 4 2021

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SUN...S winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-050330-
Dall Point to Wales-
520 AM AKST Sat Dec 4 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SUN...S winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...E winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-050330-
Kotzebue Sound-
520 AM AKST Sat Dec 4 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE winds 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...SE winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...S winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-050330-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
520 AM AKST Sat Dec 4 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 35 kt becoming S 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SUN...SE winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 25 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

Dec 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
339 PM AKST Fri Dec 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Very active weather pattern for Northern Alaska continues with a
ongoing blizzard conditions on the West Coast and ongoing low
wind chill values over the Western Brooks Range and low wind chill
values expected to develop tonight and continuing into Saturday
through the Alaska Range Passes, the Deltana Flats as well as the
Upper Yukon River Valley near Eagle.

A second major winter storm is expected to impact the West Coast
and Western Interior beginning Sunday morning and continuing into
early next week. There will be a brief break in the weather late
tonight and on Saturday between the second storm and the storm
currently impacting the West Coast and Bering Strait areas. The
second much stronger storm will pose the threat for heavy
snowfall, significant blowing and drifting snow with 40 to 60 mph
south to east winds, and hazardous travel conditions over the West
Coast and Western Interior. Strong winds will develop through the
Alaska Range on Sunday afternoon.

In addition, coastal areas along the West Coast from the Bering
Strait southward, may see sea ice pushing up on the beaches where
there is limited shorefast ice and who are prone to southeast
winds through Sunday night. Another surge of west winds as the
low shifts inland may present issues on Monday, Currently, the
latest forecasts are indicating a surge of 3-5 feet above the
normal high tide line (MHHW) for parts of the Yukon Delta north
into Norton Sound, beginning late Saturday night and into Sunday.
Water will likely push up along cracks in the ice and may pool on
top of the ice near the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
At 500 hpa a longwave trough extending from the Chukchi Sea
southward through the Bering Strait and into the Central Aleutians
will continue to deepen and push onto the West Coast and Western
Interior Saturday and Sunday as the upper level ridge currently
over the Eastern and Central Interior builds and moves slowly
east over the Yukon. The deep trough over the Eastern Bering and
West Coast of Alaska will remain in place into early next week
before a more zonal pattern develops over the Bering Sea and
Northern Alaska by the middle of next week. 850 mb temperatures
over Fairbanks currently around 20 below Celsius will increase
rapidly as southerly flow ahead of the large storm moving onto the
West Coast on Sunday pushes much warmer air northward over the
Interior as well as the Brooks Range and North Slope. 850 mb
temperatures over Fairbanks will rise from the 20 below range to
around 6 below range by Monday and drop again to the 18 to 20
below range by Wednesday of next week.

Model Discussion...
The 03/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis as well as the upper level observations and verified
well against the 18z surface analysis. Model spread remains
reasonable in the short and well as the mid range with expected
levels of spread in the long range. All models continue to
indicate a very strong storm with central pressures dropping into
the 955 range over the Western Bering Sea will continue to push
north into the Gulf of Anadyr by 12z Sunday morning with strong
winds snow and blizzard conditions expected to develop over St
Lawrence Island late Saturday night and along the entire West
Coast by Sunday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...
ongoing blizzard conditions continue to pound the West Coast with
near zero visibility in blowing snow. Strong winds will decrease
later this evening as the strong front pushes inland into the
Western Interior. This storm weakens rapidly as it pushes northeast
into the Western Brooks Range and the Western Interior. Low wind
chill values in the Western Brooks Range will improve this evening
and overnight at temperatures increase.

All eyes are focused on the second and much stronger storm that
is forecast to push into the Western Bering Sea Saturday night and
push into the Gulf of Anadyr as a 955 mb low on Sunday. A very
strong front will push north of the low over St Lawrence Island on
Saturday night and onto the West Coat and through the Bering
Strait on Sunday. Widespread blizzard conditions with sustained
winds along the coast expected to exceed 60 mph in many locations
and wind gusts are likely to exceed 80 mph on Sunday along the
West Coast south of the Bering Strait initially and then pushing
north of the Bering Strait later in the day on Sunday. South and
West facing slopes will likely see 6 to 12 inches of snow with
this storm. Stay tuned for additional Winter Weather headlines on
this storm as the ongoing storm subsides.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Clear skies overnight over much of the region brought bitterly
cold temperatures with lows in the in the 30s, 40s and a few 50s's
below. Expect much the same tonight with low temperatures in the
30s, 40s, and a few 50s below in coldest locations over much of
the Central and Eastern Interior. Winds are expected to develop
through the Upper Yukon Valley near Eagle, as well as along the
Deltana Flats near Delta Junctions as well as through the passes
in the Alaska Range tonight and combined with cold temperatures
will produce dangerous wind chill values in these area. Wind
Chill Advisories have been issued for these areas. Temperatures
will warm ever so slightly through the day Saturday across the
Central Interior and the Eastern Interior and into Sunday as
warmer air pushes in from the west. Southerly gap winds through
Alaska Range Passes will strengthen Sunday as a strong front
approaches from the west with headlines likely needed for very
strong winds through the Alaska Range Passes on Sunday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cold wind chill temperatures have improved this afternoon over
much of the North Slope temperatures however cold wind chills
continue in the Western Brooks Range and Upper Kobuk river where
Wind Chill Advisories continue into tomorrow. Conditions will
improve as temperatures increase tonight and into tomorrow. A
warming trend will continue into tomorrow however as winds
increase this evening and tonight Wind Chill values will flirt
with criteria this evening over the Eastern North Slope. Winds
will continue to increase tonight and Saturday across the Brooks
Range with gusts to exceeding 30 mph through Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213-AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230.
&&

CCC DEC 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1248 PM AKST Fri Dec 3 2021

AKZ219>226-042100-
Upper Koyukuk Valley-Yukon Flats and Surrounding Uplands-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-Denali-
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Fort Yukon, Venetie, Central, Circle,
Stevens Village, Beaver, Chalkyitsik, Birch Creek,
Circle Hot Springs, Eagle Summit, Twelvemile Summit, Nenana,
Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs, Rampart,
Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, Healy Lake, Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway,
Alcan, Chicken, Boundary, Healy, Denali National Park,
Carlo Creek, Kantishna, Mentasta Lake, Black Rapids,
Donnelly Dome, Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
1248 PM AKST Fri Dec 3 2021

...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VAlUES FOR THE
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY...

Another strong Arctic High continues to bring bitterly cold
temperatures to the Interior which will persist through Saturday,
with the coldest temperatures likely to occur on Saturday
morning. Expect lows to drop into the -30 F to -45 F range for
lower elevations, with some cold valley spots in the Yukon Flats
dropping to near -50 F Saturday morning.

Winds will increase in the Deltana and Tanana Flats, the Upper
Yukon River Valley near Eagle as well as the passes in the Alaska
Range which will produce dangerously low wind chill values of 40
to 55 below zero. Wind chill values will improve Saturday as
temperatures increase Saturday afternoon.

Interested parties should take necessary precautions, wear extra
layers, and protect outdoor motor equipment.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
112 PM AKST Fri Dec 3 2021

AKZ207>217-227-041500-
Chukchi Sea Coast-Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Baldwin Peninsula and Selawik Valley-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-Yukon Delta-
Lower Yukon Valley-Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-Upper Kuskokwim Valley-
Including Point Hope, Shishmaref, Kivalina, Espenberg, Noatak,
Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Kotzebue, Selawik, Noorvik, Buckland,
Deering, Candle, Council, Haycock, Pilgrim Springs,
Serpentine Hot Springs, Taylor, Nome, White Mountain, Golovin,
Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk, Shaktoolik,
Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales, Diomede,
Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik, Pilot Station,
St Marys, Scammon Bay, Marshall, Nunam Iqua, Pitkas Point,
Russian Mission, Grayling, Holy Cross, Shageluk, Anvik, Flat,
Galena, Nulato, Huslia, Kaltag, Ruby, Koyukuk, Ambler, Shungnak,
Kobuk, McGrath, Nikolai, Takotna, and Farewell Lake
112 PM AKST Fri Dec 3 2021

...MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

A second major winter storm is expected to impact the West Coast
and Western Interior beginning Sunday morning and continuing into
early next week. There will be a brief break in the weather late
tonight and on Saturday between the second storm the the storm
currently impacting the West Coast and Bering Strait areas. The
second much stronger storm will pose the threat for heavy
snowfall, significant blowing and drifting snow with 40 to 60 mph
south to east winds, and hazardous travel conditions.

In addition, coastal areas along the West Coast from the Bering
Strait southward, may see sea ice pushing up on the beaches where
there is limited shorefast ice and who are prone to southeast
winds through Sunday night. Another surge of west winds as the
low shifts inland may present issues on Monday, Currently, the
latest forecasts are indicating a surge of 3-5 feet above the
normal high tide line (MHHW) for parts of the Yukon Delta north
into Norton Sound, beginning late Saturday night and into Sunday.
Water will likely push up along cracks in the ice and may pool on
top of the ice near the coast.

Stay tuned to www.weather.gov/fairbanks as we continue to monitor
this storm.