Brisk Wind Advisory 221, NWS Fairbanks, AK

738 
FZAK52 PAFG 291255
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
355 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-300300-
355 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure extends S from a 1030 mb high N of Wrangel Island 
to a 1022 mb high on the Chukotsk Peninsula, then SW across the 
Western Bering Sea. Low pressure will persist over mainland 
Alaska. A 964 mb low has moved to 1050 nm S of Sand Point and will
move to 100 nm SE of Kodiak City Tue morning. A trough of low 
pressure will develop over the West Coast Tue. 

$$

PKZ200-300300-
Norton Sound-
355 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-300300-
Dall Point to Wales-
355 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Freezing fog and
blowing snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-300300-
Kotzebue Sound-
355 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 5 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 5 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 5 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...E winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-300300-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
355 AM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.THU...SE winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 40 kt.  

$$

SDB Nov 21

214 
FZAK52 PAFG 292328
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
228 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-301515-
228 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure extends S from a 1029 mb high N of Wrangel Island 
to a 1021 mb high on the Chukotsk Peninsula, then SW across the 
Western Bering Sea as a 1016 mb high. Low pressure will persist 
over mainland Alaska into Wed AM.

$$

PKZ200-301515-
Norton Sound-
228 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 30 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-301515-
Dall Point to Wales-
228 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SE winds 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-301515-
Kotzebue Sound-
228 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 5 kt. 
.TUE...W winds 5 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED...W winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 35 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-301515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
228 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. 
.FRI...E winds 40 kt. 
.SAT...SE winds 35 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
408 AM AKST Sun Nov 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Wind Chill has kicked in in the Eastern Arctic, Brooks
Range, and on summits in the Interior with Warnings and Advisories
issued. Broad low pressure will continue with stratus and
flurries in the Interior lingering, but expect some periods of
clearing skies later today. Cold continues on the west coast, and
with clearing skies in the interior temperatures will be falling
tonight and Monday. Winds picking up through the passes Monday
evening, and the Tanana Valley Jet will kick in Tuesday as strong
low moves in the Northern Gulf of Alaska. Front on the Eastern
Arctic Coast will bring some light snow to the area with local
areas of blowing snow. West Coast remains mostly clear and cold
with temperatures falling to around 40 below from Buckland to the
Upper Kobuk to the Upper Koyukuk Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Very good run to run continuity with the 28/00Z
solutions, and they are in good agreement through the short term.
Extended periods came into good agreement yesterday, and that
continues with the latest solutions. Temperatures continue to be
tricky as clouds will have a huge impact. Going with a general
blend of the solutions, but will keep some stratus and flurries in
the interior.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad troughing persists with a 497 dam low
over McGrath and troughing extending northeast to a 500 dam low
over the Northwest Territories, and a 502 dam low 150 nm southeast
of Banks Island. A 502 dam low developed along a trough extending
southeast from the low over McGrath and move over the Upper
Tanana Valley this morning. Ridging extends across the Arctic from
a 518 dam high over 80N and the Dateline southeast over 75N then
just north of Banks Island. Ridging extends south from the same
high over Chukotka to a 523 dam high west of the Gulf of Anadyr
then southeast over Unalaska. A 503 dam low has moved to 100 nm
southwest of Amchitka. Monday morning the low that was over
McGrath will be over Koyuk at 500 dam with trough extending
northeast to a 494 dam low over Banks Island, then north to a 502
dam low 400 nm north of Banks Island. Ridging to the west will
slide west of the Dateline extending south over Chukotka and the
Western Bering Sea. The low near Amchitka will move to 50 nm south
of Cold Bay at 502 dam. Weak ridging will be pushing northeast
over the Gulf of Alaska. At 850 hpa...Temperatures below -20C
through Monday morning, then the -20C isotherm will be pushed
north to the Yukon River and west to the Nulato Hills by Tuesday
morning. Pools of temperatures around -30C have settled in north
of the Brooks and Alaska Ranges.

Surface...High in the Arctic is 400 nm north of Wrangel Island at
1032 mb, with a 1024 mb high in the central Arctic Plain, and a
1019 mb high near Old Crow YT. High pressure also extends south to
a 1024 mb high over the Chukotsk Peninsula, then southeast across
Kodiak Island to the Northeast Pacific. The low persists in
Prince William Sound at 992 mb with inverted trough extending
north into the Central Interior, and the low that was near Sitka
yesterday will be in the Southeast Yukon Territory at 1002 mb. A
960 mb low will be 100 nm south of Nikolski. Monday afternoon the
high in the Arctic will be 400 nm north of Wrangel Island with
high pressure extending southeast to a 1021 mb high in the Central
Arctic Plain to a 1025 mb high near the YT/NWT Border, and south
to a 1021 mb high on the Chukotsk Peninsula. The low in Prince
William Sound and inverted trough extending into the Interior
will weaken and merge with the low that was near Nikolski as it
moves to 100 nm east of Sand Point at 969 mb.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A low near Banks Island has pushed
a weather front west over the Arctic Coast east of Utqiagvik.
Stratus remains over the coastal areas with flurries. Some light
snow east of Prudhoe Bay with light accumulations. Blowing snow
will reduce visibility at times from Point Tompson east. To the
west some breaks in the stratus as high pressure builds east over
the Plains. Winds north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph for coastal
areas west of Nuiqsut, with west to northwest winds from Nuiqsut
east, and lighter winds in the Plains. Winds from Prudhoe Bay east
southwest to west at 15 to 25 mph. Wind Chill near 50 below around
Kaktovik and in the Brooks Range passes. Highs today will range
from the single digits below to the 20s below in the Plains.
Lows tonight falling to 15 to 25 below for most areas along the
coast, and to the 30s below in the Plains and Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...Continues to be mostly clear
except on the Capes and St Lawrence Island. Occasional snow
squalls on the Capes and St Lawrence Island. Gusty north winds
through the Bering Strait continue. Strong winds extend from Point
Hope through the Strait to Cape Romanzof with the strongest winds
around Little Diomede and on St Lawrence Island with gusts around
35 mph. Winds will continue from the north moving inland and
diminish rapidly to less than 10 mph. Further inland winds will
continue to be light and variable. Flurries have pushed west into
the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valleys and will persist
through most of the day. North flow will keep things cool with
highs today ranging from near 10 above west of Nome to around 10
below around Nome, to the teens below in the Middle Yukon, and
range from 20 below to around 30 below in the Kotzebue Sound
Region and Upper Kobuk. Lows Monday will range from the single
digits above on St Lawrence Island to the single digits below on
the Capes to the 20s below from Nome east to the Middle Yukon
Valley, to around 40 below from Buckland to Selawik to Ambler.

Central and Eastern Interior...Inverted trough continues to hang
over the Central Interior with stratus and flurries from Fairbanks
south along the Parks Highway, and northwest to Bettles. The
trough will remain in the area, but weaken so stratus will slowly
erode away by Sunday evening. Light snow southeast of Delta
Junction will taper off to flurries. Patchy fog in the valleys.
Winds northeast to 5 mph for most locations with winds to 10 to 20
mph on summits through tonight. With cold temperatures continuing
across the area Wind Chill near 60 below is possible above
treeline on summits and in the White Mountains. Monday in the
Alaska Range will turn from the south at 10 to 20 mph, while the
Tanana Valley Jet will set up near Delta Junction with southeast
winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph and gusty. Temperatures will
remain cool, but clouds will be the great moderator today and
tonight, while winds will moderate temperatures south of Fairbanks
Monday. Areas that clear out tonight will see temperatures fall
into the 20s below to around 40 below range, while cloudy areas
will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer. High Monday will range from around
10 below to around 30 below.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong south winds will
move to the West Coast Thursday evening and will break up the ice
along the south edge. There is potential for and Ivu at Scammon
Bay and Brevig Mission as conditions will be similar to a 2019
event. The strong winds will also push water on top of the ice
through breaks, and along the coast.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A strong low in the Northern
Gulf of Alaska will bring some warming temperatures to areas south
of the Brooks Range. There will also be increased chances of snow
to the Southeast Interior and near an inverted trough over the
Western Interior from the Central Brooks Range south across the
Middle Yukon Valley and the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. The trough
will move east Wednesday night and Thursday bringing increasing
chances of snow to the Central and Eastern Interior. Strong north
winds on the West Coast will continue to bring snow squalls to the
Capes, mainly near open water through midweek. A strong low
moving to the Bering Sea and Siberia will bring a warming trend to
the West Coast Thursday and Friday along with strong south winds
and a mix of precipitation with potential for blizzard conditions
west of the Middle Yukon Valley and in the Chukchi Sea Region.
High pressure will hold over the Arctic with west to north flow.
The storm system will move into the Western Arctic Thursday night
with winds swinging around from the south.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ204.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ206-AKZ218.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ220.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

&&

SDB NOV 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
144 PM AKST Sun Nov 28 2021

AKZ219-221-222-291215-
Upper Koyukuk Valley-Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Allakaket, Hughes, Bettles, Caribou Mountain,
Gobblers Knob, Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto,
Manley Hot Springs, Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood,
Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole,
Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs,
and Sourdough Camp
144 PM AKST Sun Nov 28 2021

...Cold Wind Chill at Higher Elevations through Monday...

Wind Chill temperatures will fall to around 60 below at times
above treeline in the White Mountains, and along the Steese,
Elliott, and Dalton Highways through Monday.

Winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph at higher elevations and
combine with temperatures of 15 to 30 below to produce the cold
Wind Chill temperatures.

Locally blowing and drifting snow may reduce visibility at times
impacting travel.

For the latest forecasts go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks.