Brisk Wind Advisory 218, NWS Fairbanks, AK

969 
FZAK52 PAFG 230002
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-231530-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1044 mb area of high pressure centered 150 NM N of Wrangel 
Island will remain in place through Tues before weakening and 
slowly sliding northeast to 1032 mb 500 NM NE of Wrangel Island by
4pm Wed. A 960 mb low will move to 400 NM S of Adak by this 
evening.

$$

PKZ200-231530-
Norton Sound-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-231530-
Dall Point to Wales-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-231530-
Kotzebue Sound-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-231530-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

229 
FZAK52 PAFG 231248
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
348 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-240330-
348 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1043 mb area of high pressure centered 400 NM N of Wrangel 
Island will weaken and slowly slide northeast at 1034 mb 500 NM 
NE of Wrangel Island by 4pm Wed.

$$

PKZ200-240330-
Norton Sound-
348 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-240330-
Dall Point to Wales-
348 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-240330-
Kotzebue Sound-
348 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 5 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-240330-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
348 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NE winds 25 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

593 
FZAK52 PAFG 232211
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
111 PM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-241515-
111 PM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1040 mb area of high pressure centered 400 NM N of Wrangel 
Island will weaken and slowly slide northeast at 1034 mb 500 NM 
NE of Wrangel Island by 4pm Wed.

$$

PKZ200-241515-
Norton Sound-
111 PM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-241515-
Dall Point to Wales-
111 PM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-241515-
Kotzebue Sound-
111 PM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 5 kt. 
.FRI...NW winds 5 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 5 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 5 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-241515-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
111 PM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

842 
FZAK52 PAFG 241306
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
406 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-250415-
406 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1040 mb area of high pressure centered 500 NM N of Wrangel 
Island will weaken to 1035 mb and remain 500 NM N of Wrangel 
Island by 4pm Thu. A weak 1013 mb low will form in the western
Bering Sea 250 NM NW of St. Matthew Island on Thu AM.

$$

PKZ200-250415-
Norton Sound-
406 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-250415-
Dall Point to Wales-
406 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SAT...N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ215-250415-
Kotzebue Sound-
406 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 5 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-250415-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
406 AM AKST Wed Nov 24 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
338 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Cold wind chills and increasing winds with blowing snow will be
the main weather concern over the next few days. Winds are
increasing this afternoon and evening over Interior summits and
may produce wind chills as cold as 50 below zero overnight tonight
and tomorrow morning. Channeled valleys may also see very cold
wind chills during this event. Blowing snow will mainly be
confined to summits in the Interior, but will cause areas with
visibilities one half mile or less at times. Winds will diminish
Tuesday, but below normal temperatures are expected to persist
through next weekend. North winds through the Bering Strait and
on St. Lawrence Island may continue to blow freezing spray inland
at Savoonga, possibly causing ice accumulation on power lines,
roads, and buildings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 21/12z model suite had variable initializations. The
NAM initialized the 500 mb low near Denali 1 to 2 decameters too
low while the ECMWF and the GFS initialized it well. At the
surface, models initialized a low near Cordova 6 to 8 mb too high.
The GFS and the ECMWF were also 2 mb too low on a high near
Wrangel Island. All models initialized a low near Old Crow 5 to 7
mb too high. Despite this, models are in good agreement aloft
through short term forecast period. At the surface, the ECMWF
brings a much deeper low to Prince William Sound on Wednesday
morning than other models and as a result develops a stronger
gradient across the Alaska Range. The ECMWF is also more
aggressive with bringing snow into the Eastern Interior on
Wednesday morning. For this forecast package, we will use a blend
of all models and maintain continuity with the previous forecast,
but increase winds through tonight a few knots above model
guidance due to the errors in initialization leading to a stronger
gradient across the state.

Aloft...A 513 dam upper level low centered over Denali anchors a
cold longwave trough over Mainland Alaska. A 545 dam high lies 200
miles NW of Wrangel Island, and a 491 dam low lies over the
Canadian Archipelago. These will remain the dominant features
aloft through mid week. The low over the Canadian Archipelago will
drift east as the low over Denali moves to near Dillingham at 502
dam by Wednesday morning. The high near Wrangel Island will drift
south to the Chukchi Peninsula at 536 dam by Wednesday morning
then continue south and weaken. This will enhance northerly flow
through the Bering Strait and Northern Bering Sea early this week
and keep cold air over Mainland Alaska indefinitely.

Surface...A 980 mb low near Cordova will drift west then
weaken through Tuesday morning. A 1020 mb low near Old Crow will
weaken in place over that same time period. A 1044 mb high 250
miles north of Wrangel Island will remain in place through Tuesday
morning then drift north and weaken. Models are in agreement that
a low will move to Prince William Sound on Wednesday afternoon,
but range in strength from 982 mb to 975 mb. The result of all of
this will be continued NE winds in the Interior and N winds
through Brooks Range passes and through the Bering Strait.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Mainly clear skies east of
Utqiagvik this afternoon and a mix of clear skies and stratus to
the west. Winds will increase through Brooks Range tonight and
continue through Tuesday morning with gusts to 40 mph possible.
This will lead to cold wind chills and some isolated areas of
blowing snow and reduced visibility. Wind chills will be coldest
on Monday night. Temperatures will be colder tomorrow with highs
in the single digits and teens below zero, then warm slightly on
Tuesday before temperatures drop again Wednesday and Thursday with
lows mainly in the 20s and 30s below by Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Snow showers are falling this
afternoon on St. Lawrence Island and are expected to continue
through mid week. Brief periods of low visibility in snow squalls
are possible, and accumulations may total 4 inches by Tuesday.
Freezing spray blowing inland may also impact buildings, roads,
and utilities at Savoonga. This has the potential to be a long
duration event with north winds sustain at 20 to 30 mph
forecasted to continue all week. A low pressure system in the Gulf
of Alaska will bring a chance of light snow south and east of the
Yukon River Monday and Monday night with any accumulations being
less than an inch. In addition to the Bering Strait, northeast winds
will increase everywhere tonight and stay breezy through Wednesday.
Gusts to 25 or 30 mph are possible Monday through Wednesday
morning in the Nulato Hills, Eastern Norton Sound, and near Red
Dog Mine. Temperatures will stay pretty constant with lows in the
teens below zero except single digits below on the coast and 20s
below in the Kobuk Valley. Highs mostly in the single digits above
and below zero. St. Lawrence Island will see highs and lows in
the teens above zero.

Central and Eastern Interior...Light snow is falling this
afternoon and evening from Delta Junction east and along the
Alaska Range. Accumulations will be less than 1 inch. Winds will
increase tonight from the northeast and cause cold wind chills,
along with blowing snow and periods of low visibility over
summits. Winds over summits may gust as high as 40 mph and produce
wind chills as cold as 50 below zero. The coldest wind chills will
be overnight near Eagle Summit. These winds will persist through
Tuesday morning. Increasing clouds are expected tonight south of
the Yukon River. Ambient temperatures will moderate under this
blanket with highs in the single digits below zero and lows in the
teens and 20s below zero through mid week rather than the 20s to
40s below from the past few nights.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The potential exists for
freezing spray blowing inland on St. Lawrence Island, specifically
at Savoonga, to persist through the middle to end of this coming
week. Winds will remain out of the north sustained at 20 to 30 mph
with temperatures in the teens above zero. This could cause
significant ice accumulations on power lines, roads, and buildings
by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...Models are in agreement
that the cold trough currently over Alaska will remain parked over
the state through next weekend. As a result, expect colder than
normal temperatures to continue. Model agreement on surface
features is below normal, as such the precipitation forecast is
more uncertain. Models agree than some snow will wrap into the
Interior on Wednesday or Wednesday night, but differ on timing and
placement. Models also indicate snow showers continuing over the
Northern Bering Sea and St. Lawrence Island. With the upper level
low anchoring the cold trough digging further south, expect a
slightly more favorable pattern for precipitation in Interior
Alaska, though details remain uncertain.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CHRIEST NOV 21