Brisk Wind Advisory 217, NWS Fairbanks, AK

022 
FZAK51 PAFG 211242
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-220315-
342 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
An 1042 area of high pressure centered 150 NM N of Wrangel Island
will remain in place through Tuesday before slowly sliding east. 

$$

PKZ225-220315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
342 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-220315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
342 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-220315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
342 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-220315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
342 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-220315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
342 AM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

299 
FZAK51 PAFG 220041
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-221545-
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1042 mb area of high pressure centered 150 NM N of Wrangel Island
will remain in place through Tuesday before weakening and slowly 
sliding northeast to 1032 mb 500 NM NE of Wrangel Island by 4pm
Wed.

$$

PKZ225-221545-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-221545-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-221545-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt becoming N. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-221545-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.MON...N winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-221545-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
341 PM AKST Sun Nov 21 2021

.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

010 
FZAK51 PAFG 221204
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-230330-
304 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1042 mb area of high pressure centered 150 NM N of Wrangel Island
will remain in place through Tuesday before weakening and slowly 
sliding northeast to 1032 mb 500 NM NE of Wrangel Island by 4pm
Wed.

$$

PKZ225-230330-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
304 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-230330-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
304 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TODAY...NE winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-230330-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
304 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-230330-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
304 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TODAY...N winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-230330-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
304 AM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

641 
FZAK51 PAFG 230002
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-231530-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1044 mb area of high pressure centered 150 NM N of Wrangel 
Island will remain in place through Tues before weakening and 
slowly sliding northeast to 1032 mb 500 NM NE of Wrangel Island by
4pm Wed.

$$

PKZ225-231530-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-231530-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-231530-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-231530-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-231530-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 22 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

201 
FZAK51 PAFG 231237
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
337 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-240315-
337 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1043 mb area of high pressure centered 400 NM N of Wrangel 
Island will weaken and slowly slide northeast at 1034 mb 500 NM 
NE of Wrangel Island by 4pm Wed.

$$

PKZ225-240315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
337 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

.TODAY...N winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NE winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-240315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
337 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-240315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
337 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-240315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
337 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...NE winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-240315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
337 AM AKST Tue Nov 23 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...E winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...NE winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...N winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 10 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
552 AM AKST Sat Nov 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold weather will dominate the forecast this weekend, with much of
the Interior remaining well below zero. Winds across the Interior will
pick up tonight and will continue into Sunday. This will result in
very cold wind chill values, especially over summits and higher
terrain. Breezy northerly winds are expected for Saturday into
Sunday through the Bering Strait.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 20/00 UTC models initialized the area of high pressure over
the southeastern Interior a few millibars too low when compared
to observational data. The models are in decent agreement with the
synoptic scale pattern out into early next week. For the wind
forecast, we opted to lean mostly on the NAM with a number of hand
edits.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a cold trough is currently in place over the
state. The trough will strengthen today as cold pushes south
today. By early Sunday, a 515 dam low will be centered near
McGrath, with the low expected to push south on Monday.
Currently 850 mb temperatures of negative 15 to 20 C over the
Interior will decrease into the minus 20 to 25 C range by the end
of the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Satellite imagery from this morning shows clear skies over most
of the Interior. Under the clear skies, we are seeing very cold
temperatures. Temperatures this morning range from the 20s to 40s
below zero at valley level, with a strong inversion in place over
Fairbanks. Most of the Interior will not see a huge warm up today,
with high temperatures expected to be in the teens to 20s below
zero. Northeasterly winds will kick up Sunday morning across the
Interior, and will continue into Monday, especially north of
Fairbanks where gusts of of 35 mph will be seen at times. The
combination of the cold temperatures and gusty winds will cause
wind chill values to fall to negative 40 degrees at times from
Sunday morning through Monday morning. A wind chill advisory has
been hoisted for a good chunk of the Interior in anticipation of
the cold wind chill values. In addition, blowing snow may reduce
the visibly at times along highway summits north of Fairbanks
Sunday morning into Monday morning. Cloud cover looks to increase
late Sunday into Monday as a system in the Gulf of Alaska pushes
moisture into the area. The increased cloud cover will help to
moderate temperatures over the area, especially for Monday. This
system will also bring some chances for snow to the southeastern
Interior Sunday into Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Northerly winds will increase tonight through the Bering Strait.
North winds of 30 mph are expected over St Lawrence Island
starting tonight, and could last through Monday or Tuesday. These
winds combined with cold temperatures, will cause elevated surf,
and could cause heavy freezing spray to blow inland along the
North Shore of St Lawrence Island starting tonight. St. Lawrence
Island will also see some snow showers at times through Monday.
Elsewhere, we expect mainly clear skies through the short term
period. High temperatures today near the coast will be in the
single digits above zero, with high in the Western Interior in the
single digits below zero. Lows tonight will be in the single
digits below zero near the coast, with teens to 20s below zero in
the Western Interior.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Satellite shows cloud cover stretching from the coast south to
the Brooks Range. This cloud cover is keeping the area warm,
relatively speaking, given the cold 850 mb temperatures over the
area. We expect the cloud cover to persist for today, with some
dissipation on Sunday. With the cloud cover in place,
temperatures will not vary much today, with highs in the single
digits above zero north of the Brooks Range, with highs in the
single digits below zero within the Brooks Range. Lows tonight
will generally be in the teens below zero. With decreased cloud
coverage expected on Sunday, temperatures will be a little bit
cooler. Northerly gap winds will increase through Brooks Range
Passes Sunday and Sunday night. This has the potential to bring
blowing snow along with cold wind chill values.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...
A cold trough looks to persist over the forecast area into next
weekend, with many spots seeing 850 mb temperatures in the minus
20 to minus 30 range. Temperatures will be mainly below normal
although cloud cover will prevent temperatures from dropping down
as cold as the airmass aloft would allow for. The models are
hinting at the potential for a system bringing snow to the eastern
Interior on Thursday. The GFS and the ECMWF both have a shortwave
moving to the north; however, the ECMWF at the moment keeps the
snow in Canada while the GFS brings snow into the Central
Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220.
&&

NOV 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
253 PM AKST Sat Nov 20 2021

AKZ213-220100-
St Lawrence Island and Bering Strait Coast-
Including Gambell, Savoonga, Brevig Mission, Teller, Wales,
and Diomede
253 PM AKST Sat Nov 20 2021

...Heavy Freezing Spray At St Lawrence Island Tonight Through
Tuesday...

Residents of Savoonga, and others along the North Shore of St
Lawrence Island, should be prepared for ice accumulation on power
lines, buildings and roads starting tonight and continuing
through Tuesday or Wednesday. Ice accumulation could damage power
lines.

North winds of 30 mph are expected over St Lawrence Island
starting tonight, and could last through Tuesday or Wednesday.
These winds combined with cold temperatures, will cause elevated
surf, and will cause heavy freezing spray to blow inland along
the North Shore of St Lawrence Island starting tonight, especially
at Savoonga. Due to the long duration of this storm, significant
ice accumulation may occur.

JC