Brisk Wind Advisory 212, NWS Fairbanks, AK

558 
FZAK51 PAFG 112312
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
212 PM AKST Thu Nov 11 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-121515-
212 PM AKST Thu Nov 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1005 mb low 100 nm north of Prudhoe Bay will move north into 
the high Arctic and weaken Fri, but a trough of low pressure will 
remain over the eastern Arctic coast.

$$

PKZ225-121515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
212 PM AKST Thu Nov 11 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-121515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
212 PM AKST Thu Nov 11 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 1 foot. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-121515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
212 PM AKST Thu Nov 11 2021

.TONIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.FRI...NW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-121515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
212 PM AKST Thu Nov 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.MON...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-121515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
212 PM AKST Thu Nov 11 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

268 
FZAK51 PAFG 121357
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
457 AM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-130315-
457 AM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1001 MB low 100 NM north of Barter Island will move to 300 NM 
northeast of Barter Island as a 1005 MB low by 3am Sat. A low west
of Wrangel Island will move to Wrangel Is as a 1011 mb low by 3am
Sat, and to 100 NM west of Utqiagvik as a 1012 mb low by 3am Sun.


$$

PKZ225-130315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
457 AM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-130315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
457 AM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.
Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-130315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
457 AM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

.TODAY...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.TONIGHT...NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-130315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
457 AM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-130315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
457 AM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.MON...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

029 
FZAK51 PAFG 122221
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
121 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-131500-
121 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1004 mb low 300 nm NE of Barter Island will move to 500 nm NE 
of Barter Island by Sat morning. A 1015 mb high over the SW Arctic
will move E and merge with high pressure building across the 
Arctic Plain Sat morning. A 1013 mb low will move into the SW 
Arctic Sat morning and to 200 nm W of Wainwright by Sat afternoon.
A weather front will move into the NW Arctic Sat morning moving 
SE across the Arctic to the Eastern Arctic by Sun morning as a low
moves SW to 400 nm N of Oliktok Point by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ225-131500-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
121 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. Freezing fog.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-131500-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
121 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW winds 5 kt becoming S. Seas building to 2 ft.
Freezing fog. 
.SAT...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Snow
showers. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-131500-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
121 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-131500-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
121 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-131500-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
121 PM AKST Fri Nov 12 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Freezing fog and 
blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...NW winds 20 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 25 kt.  

$$

SDB Nov 21

263 
FZAK51 PAFG 131355
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
455 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-140315-
455 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1004 mb low 400 nm northeast of Barter Island will move
northeast. A 1012 mb low near Wrangel Island will move will move 
to near Cape Lisburne as a 1016 mb low by 3am Sun, and then move
inland. A weather front stretching north from this low will move
to Point Barrow to Cape Lisburne by 3am Sun, and then continue
east to Demarcation Point by midnight Sun night. 

$$

PKZ225-140315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
455 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing 
fog. Snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-140315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
455 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Snow showers.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. 
.MON...N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-140315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
455 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

.TODAY...SW winds 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...N winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...N winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 15 kt. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-140315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
455 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

.TODAY...W winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.TUE...N winds 10 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-140315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
455 AM AKST Sat Nov 13 2021

.TODAY...W winds 20 kt. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.MON...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.MON NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...W winds 15 kt. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt.  

$$

Nov 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1142 PM AKST Wed Nov 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold arctic trough remains over the Mainland, with a low over
the eastern Arctic bringing snow to the coast. Elsewhere, cold and
dry with some stratus and flurries over the Yukon Valley and Yukon
Delta. Light snow threats will increase over the southern Interior
the next few days as Gulf disturbances wrap inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is an arctic low now centered over the Middle Kusko Valley
and Western Alaska Range, with an analysis height of around 514
dam at 500 hpa. There is a well defined shortwave trough lifting
northwest toward the eastern Arctic, which already bringing light
snow and southwest winds/blowing snow. Out west there is north
flow over the Bering Strait. Over the Gulf, there is a basal
diabatic low merging with the aforementioned arctic low, bringing
snow to the Gulf Coast and Cook Inlet. This will bring light snow
to the Interior today and tomorrow.

Model Discussion...
Subtle changes can sometime yield large differences, and the
models have changed a lot with the depiction of the low over the
Gulf merging with the arctic low aloft. This changes the whole
pattern the next few days as it now looks much better for light
snow chances over the Interior into Saturday as waves of energy
rotate inland from the Gulf. All models have shifted to this new
pattern, and they have a much better handle now albeit with still
small differences. The NAM and ECMWF were favored.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Change in the pattern from the thinking of the past several days,
as it will remain colder, but also increased chances for periodic
light snow. The first comes today as a weak low over the Gulf of
AK crosses the Alaska Range, bringing light snow threats across
the AK Range, into the Interior from the Middle Tanana Valley to
the Lower Tanana Valley. Another wave moves into the Fortymile
Uplands and rotates west across the southern Interior Friday,
bringing more light snow. Right now amounts will not be heavy, but
expect possible 1-2" snow amounts, a little more down toward the
Alaska Range by Saturday evening as this all winds down. Temps
should gradually rise from their current values with increasing
clouds.

West Coast and Western Interior...
No change in weather pattern for now as stratus will hang over the
southwest coast and Interior, with colder temps in clearer skies
over parts of the northern Seward Pen and Selawik/Noatak Valleys.
periodic light snow showers will continue to impact the coast with
the north wind gradient before that tapers off on Friday. The next
weak occluded front will move into the NW Arctic on Saturday,
bringing with it light snow threats.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A low is forming along the eastern Arctic coast near Demarcation
Point, and this will strengthen and shift west toward Prudhoe Bay
today then move north and weaken Friday. This system will bring
continued light snow with areas of blowing snow as southwest winds
increase into the 30 mph range from Prudhoe Bay to Barter Island.
Thereafter the gradient slackens with high pressure building in
for the weekend, leaving behind stratus, fog, and flurry chances.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A strong cross-polar flow pattern will be underway as the extended
period begins on Sunday, with northwest flow ushering in a strong
and deep arctic low which is poised to drop over the Mainland
sometime early next week, although there is significant
uncertainty run by run in all the global models. They differ in
their depiction of a deep arctic low crashing inland, or a more
northwest flow persisting with the coldest air mainly over the
North Slope. Either way, it looks cold and mostly dry for the
Mainland as winter looks to take hold.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

AHSENMACHER NOV 21